On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discussed the two different markets we are each experiencing. He's experiencing one of great breakouts and follow-through. I'm experiencing one of frustration.
Same stock market, different results. That is information. We get into it.
This bull market appears to be on the verge of another leg higher and it might be led by the financials. We both liked the idea of finding alpha down the cap scale in smaller regional banks to participate.
Here's a daily chart of U.S. Bancorp $USB:
Today, the stock is printing fresh 52-week highs.
However, it should be noted that U.S. Bancorp announces earnings before the market opens tomorrow. This introduces binary risk that we need to be aware of and this will affect my position sizing (hint: trading smaller than I normally would).
But we're not going to let earnings keep us away. We feel it could be just the catalyst this stock needs to follow through on this breakout and make a run at $60 per share, or higher.
Here's the Play:
I like buying $USB March 50 calls for approximately $2.30 per...
When I think about bonds, credit spreads are always at the top of my mind because they provide an excellent gauge of market health.
We simply measure the yield difference between a Treasury bond and a High-yield bond with the same maturity.
Another way to do it is by looking at the prices of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG compared to the Treasury Bond ETF $IEI:
When bond market investors are confident and willing to take on more risk, they drive up the value of High-yield bonds, causing this ratio to increase or credit spreads to narrow.
Conversely, when investors seek safety, credit spreads widen, which doesn't not bode well for risk assets.
As you can see in the chart, this ratio is pushing up against its highest level of the year.
This action suggests that there's no systemic risk upon us.
As long as that remains true, we can feel comfortable that equities and risk assets, in general, will stay in good shape.
Due to Monday’s holiday there are no insider filings to report today. We’ll be back tomorrow with a look at that activity.
In the interim, Sea Ltd $SE has been on our radar ever since Rep. Kurt Schrader reported a position in a political filing back in 2022.
When the guys returned from Asia last year, we started stalking it even more closely. While it had an exciting growth story, more importantly, it had no evidence of a bottom.
The stock was free-falling in a 90% drawdown back then.
So, we've been waiting patiently for a perfect pitch for some time now.
We need to see clear signs of a trend reversal before we follow insiders into their trades. While our hot corner data is great, the chart always comes first.
And after several years, we finally think this chart is ready for us.
When we first traded it in March of this year, ...
US indexes all booked nice gains, with the Dow and S&P achieving another new all-time high.
There was a synchronized global rally led by China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen, both up over 2%.
Software, financials, industrials, General Electric, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs…
They all had one thing in common to start the week: new highs.
But it was the crypto market, more than anything, that was giving me the risk-on feel.
Alts are waking up here. Our custom altcoin index was up over 6% today.
More importantly, it looks like Bitcoin is about to break out of this range we’ve all been waiting for.
Here’s how I know:
This is a triple-pane chart of the three premier crypto market equities.
MicroStrategy, Robinhood, and Galaxy Digital have all been consistent leaders during this cycle. As such, I view them as preferred vehicles for expressing bullish bets on BTC and crypto.
They also offer a nice mix of crypto market exposure, with one acting as a juiced BTC fund,...
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended October 11, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...
Today's trade is in household name that is emerging from a 3-year base and on the verge of new all-time highs.
Due to earnings on the horizon, we'll be utilizing a spread to keep our costs in check and take advantage of some relative high options premium in out-of-the-money calls.
As I've been writing about for some time now, it appears the crypto bear market is concluding.
We're in a bull market in traditional assets and stocks are still pressing higher.
I'm still bullish looking ahead in the coming months and quarters, but neutral in the short term as Bitcoin trades sideways in anticipation of a breakout.