It Took 25 Years to Get to This Chart📈📉

Today's number is... 25

It’s taken 25 years for the Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000 ratio to return to its 2000 peak.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows: 

• The black line is the relative ratio of the Russell 1000 IWB versus the Russell 2000 IWM Index.

The Takeaway: 25 years in the making — this is a key test for market leadership.

The large-caps vs. small-caps chart has been carving out a massive base for a quarter century.

Now, it’s pressing up against resistance not seen since the dot-com era.

Why does it matter?

Because major leadership transitions often start with relative breakouts or rejections like this.

So what now?

If the ratio breaks out, large-caps tighten their grip.

Mega-caps extend their dominance, breadth stays narrow, and passive flows keep rewarding size.

In other words, the market keeps leaning into what’s already worked.

Or

If it rolls over, small-caps could finally take the lead.

That would hint at a risk-on rotation into underowned, overlooked parts of the market.

And a rally that broadens, not one floating on a handful of giants.

Whichever way it breaks, the ripple effects go well beyond small vs. large.

We’re talking shifts in breadth, factor leadership, portfolio positioning, and risk appetite.

A breakout keeps the market narrow and passive-heavy.

A rollover sparks rotation, broadens the rally, and gives active managers something to finally cheer about.

So… which side of the base wins?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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