We’re 6 months into 2025, and the S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high… up 5.49% YTD.
But under the surface, it’s a very different story.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
Each bubble represents a stock in the S&P 500, plotted by 2025 Year-To-Date performance (y-axis).
Green bubbles = gain in 2025.
Red bubbles = loss in 2025.
Bubble size = market cap.
Stocks are grouped by sector (x-axis).
The Takeaway: At the halfway mark, the surface looks strong, but the internals tell a different story.
Just 222 stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index so far in 2025. That means 281 are lagging behind.
The average stock is up only 3.95%, well below the index itself.
This gap highlights narrow leadership, with a small group of large-cap winners doing most of the heavy lifting.
Industrials are packed with winners, led by names like HWM, which is up more than 60% this year.
In Technology, WDC is one of the strongest performers, while ENPH continues to drag.
Utilities are seeing strength from names like NRG, which has surged this year.
Financials are mixed, but COIN is ripping.
Energy and Materials have solid participation, thanks to stocks like EQT and NEM.
On the flip side, Consumer Cyclicals are lagging, with DECK among the steepest losers.
Healthcare is also weak, pulled down by UNH.
Real Estate is split…
As for the Mag 7, it’s a mixed bag… Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia are leading, Apple and Tesla are dragging, and the rest… Amazon and Google aren’t moving the needle.
Despite the index sitting at all-time highs, this is far from a fully extended market. With over half the index still trailing, there’s plenty of room for rotation.
That’s fuel.
It’s the kind of setup that supports… not threatens… a continuation higher.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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