Trend Just Flipped. History Says Don’t Fade It.🔄

Today's number is... 38

38 is how many Golden Crosses — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — have triggered in the S&P 500 since 1950. 

The most recent signal was just yesterday.

Here’s the chart and stats table:

Let's break down what the chart and table show:

• The blue and red lines are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 Index.
• The gray lines mark each Golden Cross in the S&P 500 since 1950.
• The table displays the average forward returns following all 38 Golden Crosses over the past 75 years. 

The Takeaway: Golden Crosses are a bullish tailwind, not a contrarian fade.

The signal just triggered — not in fear, but in strength. Price is near all-time highs.

They don’t guarantee gains, but they tip the odds meaningfully in favor of higher prices.

Across all 38 signals, the median one-year return is +13.0%, with 81% of outcomes finishing in the green. 

Average returns build steadily over time: 1.2% after 21 days, 4.0% after 63 days, 6.7% after 126 days, and 10.9% after 252 days. 

This kind of risk/reward profile is what trend traders are looking for. 

Price breaking out. 

Now the trend is turning up. 

History suggests the path of least resistance is higher.

A Golden Cross doesn’t mean buy blindly, but it does mean conditions are improving, not deteriorating. 

When short-term trend overtakes the long-term trend, it usually marks the start of a new leg, not the end of one.

Golden Crosses don’t mark exhaustion.

They mark a regime shift.

If the trend is just turning up, why treat it like a top?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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