There have been 52 consecutive trading days the S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day moving average — just shy of the 53-day streak seen in early 2024 — and one of the most persistent trend runs of the past 25 years.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 daily close, with its 20-day moving average in red.
The black line in the lower panel plots the number of consecutive days the index has closed above its 20-day average.
The Takeaway: Credit to Subu Trade for sparking the deep dive into this.
The 20-day moving average is a simple trend barometer.
When price stays above it, bulls are still in control.
But when it does so for 50 or more sessions in a row, something bigger is happening.
We’re now sitting at 52 consecutive days — a level rarely seen outside of powerful bull markets.
That kind of persistence isn’t normal.
I’ve analyzed over 70 years of data, and most streaks above the 20-day average don’t last. Half of them end within five days. Fewer than 6% make it past the 20-day mark.
But trend behavior has shifted over time.
In the 1950s through the 1970s, trends didn’t stick — most rallies were short-lived.
The 1980s brought more follow-through, with 10- to 20-day stretches gaining traction.
The 1990s went further, with sustained 30- to 50-day trends becoming more common.
And from the 2000s onward, long streaks have been a defining feature of modern bull markets.
This 52-day run fits that mold — the kind of trend we’ve come to expect in the modern market era.
Price doesn’t drift above the 20-day for two straight months by accident.
This isn’t just a strong tape.
It’s a structurally strong one.
Until this streak breaks, Bulls are still in control.
The burden of proof is on the bears.
A pullback’s possible — but trends this strong don’t break on a whim.
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