Cyclicals Are Cruising — Defensives Are Drowning 🚤
July 15, 2025
Today's number is... 2
There are two sides to this tape — cyclicals climbing, defensives drowning.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
This table compares 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs against seven simple moving averages: 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day.
Each cell shows whether the sector is ABOVE (green) or BELOW (red) each moving average.
The bottom row displays the percentage of sectors above each average.
Columns move from short-term (5-day) on the left to long-term (200-day) on the right.
The Takeaway: Offense is winning, and defense is sinking.
Tech, Industrials, and Discretionary are all above every major moving average.
That’s not just participation — it’s sustained leadership from the parts of the market that matter most. These are the sectors that drive bull markets, set the tone for risk appetite, and tend to lead when momentum is real.
Meanwhile, Staples and Health Care are slipping below trend across multiple timeframes.
These are the classic safety trades — but nobody’s hiding.
That breakdown in the defensives is happening while leadership groups keep climbing. The strongest sectors aren’t just holding up — they’re pressing higher with clean trends and strong participation underneath.
This isn’t a narrow move — it’s broad and offensive-led. With 91% of sectors above their 50-day, buyers are firmly in control — except in the defensives. That kind of widespread strength tends to fuel sustained upside.
This is leadership doing exactly what it’s supposed to do in a bull market: lead!
And when the winners keep winning and the laggards keep lagging, that’s not a warning — it’s confirmation we are in a bull market!
So, are you leaning into what’s working… or waiting for what’s not?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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