That’s 3 months of typical chop in post-election years — August through October.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line tracks the average S&P 500 path during post-election years from 1950 to 2021.
The red line shows the actual S&P 500 performance in 2025 through July 30.
A red dashed box highlights the seasonal chop zone from August to October in the historical composite.
The Takeaway: This is where the seasonal script says markets get choppy.
In post-election years, the August–October stretch has historically been flat at best, and volatile at worst. That pause often clears the runway for a strong year-end finish.
But 2025 has already broken from that pattern. After a shaky Q1, the S&P 500 has surged steadily higher — with tight price action and broad participation.
It skipped the summer stall — and just kept climbing. That’s not bearish behavior.
Still, this seasonal stretch matters.
Not as a primary signal — but as context.
I treat seasonality like second-tier data. It's never the reason I act. But I do pay attention when it lines up with other factors.
Right now, it doesn’t.
The trend is strong. Momentum supports it. Price shows no stress.
But if weakness does show up in the weeks ahead, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
That would just be a textbook pause.
The question is: does the market respect that playbook… or tear it up again?
Either way, how the market behaves in this window could shape the final stretch into year-end.
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