Volatility Season Is Here — Will Bulls Blink? 😶‍🌫️

Today's number is... 8

We are now in the 8th month of the year, and historically the most volatile one.

Here’s the charts:

Let's break down what the charts shows:

• The first chart shows average monthly VIX performance from 1990 to 2024. Green bars reflect gains, Red bars show losses.
• The second chart zooms in on August alone. It plots average daily VIX performance through the month as a blue line.

The Takeaway: August isn’t just another month.

It’s the VIX’s most reliable spike window, with an average gain of 8.4% — the highest of any month over the past 34 years. 

And that seasonality has a trend. Volatility tends to jump early in the month and again in the final week.

That’s why stocks often stall, chop, or correct here — not because of headlines, but because this is when the market tends to reset. 

The calendar brings stress.

But that’s also the test. 

If equities can grind higher or even break out during this window — when volatility usually pops — that’s a major signal of strength. 

It means positioning is still clean, demand is strong, and bulls are in full control.

If the market shrugs off August seasonality — what excuse will sellers have left?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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