The two-week spread between NYSE+NASDAQ 52-week highs and 52-week lows is -1.3 — a slight negative tilt.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top panel plots the S&P 500 daily close in black.
The middle panel shows two percentage lines for NYSE+NASDAQ: green = stocks making 52-week highs over the past two weeks; red = stocks making 52-week lows over the past two weeks.
The bottom panel is the two-week spread (highs minus lows) shown as a black line. Background shading turns green when the two-week net 52-week highs exceed lows, and red when lows exceed highs.
The Takeaway: Price is pressing highs, but participation is neutral-to-soft.
Two-week 52-week highs are 12.8% and lows are 14.1%, leaving the spread at -1.3 — barely negative.
That’s not selling pressure; it’s missing participation.
Looking back, this gauge has been a reliable swing guide. Sustained positive spreads above +5 with highs above 10–20% marked the strongest legs of the 2019, 2020, and 2023–24 advances.
On the flip side, deep and persistent negatives below -5 aligned with the 2020 crash, the 2022 bear, and the April 2025 pullback.
We’re not at either extreme.
When the spread sits near zero, markets are often in a holding pattern — consolidating before leadership either broadens or breaks down.
The next decisive move will come from one side taking control: a breadth expansion that confirms a new breakout, or a breadth deterioration that signals real risk.
Until one wins, expect chop and rotation under the surface while price holds.
The clock is now ticking for breadth to choose a side.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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