Growth Stumbles, Value Steps Up 🔄

Today's number is... 2.22

That’s the prior cycle high in the Growth vs Value ratio — and price just broke back below it.

Here is the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top panel plots Growth (IWF) in green.
• The middle panel shows the Growth vs Value ratio (IWF/IWD) in black.
• The bottom panel plots Value (IWD) in blue.

The Takeaway: Growth’s edge over Value just slipped.

The ratio cleared its prior cycle highs at 2.22 — but that breakout failed, and it’s now back below that level.

Growth stocks have been the market’s engine in 2025. Tech, Discretionary, and Innovation names have carried the tape higher.

But when a breakout can’t stick, it usually marks an inflection point — either Growth reasserts control here, or Value takes the lead.

The absolute charts make it clear.

Growth is consolidating near highs, not collapsing, while Value is grinding higher.

That means the ratio is weakening because Value is gaining strength — not because Growth is collapsing.

This is rotation within equities, not risk-off selling.

A move back above 2.22 would keep the Growth regime intact.

But if this breakdown sticks, it could tilt leadership back toward cyclicals, banks, and industrials — reshaping the market’s internal engine.

So the question is: does Growth reclaim 2.22 — or is it finally Value’s turn to lead?

Let me know!

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

Jeff Macke unveiled his brand-new Macke Consumer Universe on Wednesday.

He also broke down his “Super Bowl of earnings” — Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and more.

Click here to watch the replay.

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