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International Hall of Famers (02-17-2023)

February 17, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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A Second Shot at a Sweet Trade

February 17, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The New York Mercantile Exchange soft commodity contracts have been ripping.

Orange juice futures recently broke out of a decade-long base, coffee is up almost 20% in a month, and cocoa hit fresh 52-week highs yesterday.

Yet, of all the softs, I like sugar the most.

In fact, sugar held the No. 1 spot as my favorite chart heading into 2023. And it broke out last month!

I missed that move -- not for lack of initiative, more like access issues.

If you missed it, too, have no fear: Sugar is offering us another opportunity to get long.…

Check out the weekly chart:

Sugar futures broke out of a multi-year base in early 2021, climbing more than 30% over the following eight months. Since then it's consolidated within a tight range.

I can’t resist taking a shot at a continuation pattern following a big...

Frustration

February 16, 2023

As a trader, I’ve grown comfortable with losing.

Losing money is part of winning over the long run.

There is no winning without losing. Sounds crazy, but traders know this to be true.

We’ve all heard that losses are lessons. They are expensive lessons, but often the most valuable. Nothing valuable comes cheaply.

During the triage phase of dissecting what went wrong, we often have “a-ha!” moments that lead to new rules and new promises, and renewed confidence. “Next time,” we tell ourselves, “the outcome will be drastically different!”

This is all well and good.

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February Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

February 16, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

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These Stocks Like it Hot!

February 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

I prefer to focus on price when analyzing markets. 

It’s what pays us at the end of the day. And it bakes in all the news and lagging economic data I tend to ignore.

A few weeks ago, I urged investors to track trends, not inflation.

Honestly, I was only half serious. I pay attention to the Fed and CPI data – mainly to stay aware of the increased volatility accompanying important release dates. 

But price is king. And when I look at my charts, the narrative of easing inflation appears suspect...

Check out the overlay chart of the Metals and Mining ETF $XME and the TIPs vs. US Treasuries ratio $TIP / $IEF:

These two charts move tick for tick at first glance. And a closer look at the lower pane reveals an overwhelmingly positive correlation over the trailing 126 trading days. This is why we focus on XME.

The tight correlation...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (02-15-2023)

February 15, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

[Options] Booking My Summer Flights Now While They Are Cheap

February 15, 2023

In the options market, summer flights priced in Boeing options are pretty cheap right now.

I think I'll be looking to take a flight to a fun European destination if I can get a bullish position in Boeing to pay for it. Maybe I'll even fly on a Boeing jet?

During our analyst meeting this morning, we kicked around a few bullish ideas, but it was this Boeing $BA chart that rose to the top:

We're going to get involved with a bullish options spread that gives us through the summer to most efficiently express this thesis.

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Young Aristocrats (February 2023)

February 14, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.

These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we've turned our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we curate a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical...

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Another Way to Ride a Sliding Dollar

February 14, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s messy out there.

The CPI data came in a little warmer than expected today. And currency markets aren’t quite sure what to make of it.

Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.

Today, I’ll outline another vehicle to short a potential falling dollar – the Swiss franc.

I prepared to get long the USD/CHF pair last October. But the trade never materialized. Instead, it caught lower as the USD downtrend picked up steam in early November.

Fast-forward a few months, and I’m ready to short the USD/CHF pair.

Before we break down the setup, let’s zoom out:

The USD/CHF pair has remained in a structural downtrend since the 2000 dot-com bubble peak. We can interpret the past decade as a bearish consolidation within an ongoing downtrend. 

Some...