Alfonso’s Daily Note Articles

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The market feels like a rollercoaster these days — volatile, messy, just trying to find its footing.

Headline-driven rallies and big swings in both directions is now the norm, and there’s no sign this will stop any time soon.

But things are getting interesting as major levels in the S&P 500 $SPY are coming back into play. 

The bulls came out this week. Let’s zoom in.

We’ve got the VWAP from the all-time highs and the VWAP from the April lows converging into a tight range. This is what our friend Brian Shannon calls a “VWAP pinch.”

This kind of compression often signals a buildup of...

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The relative strength in Bitcoin over the past two months has been off the charts.

In a tough tape, I would’ve expected BTC to be the first to roll over and lead risk assets lower. 

But that didn’t happen. If anything, it held up better than ever. 

It’s the first time BTC has shown this kind of strength under any kind of selling pressure environment.

And now that the worst is behind us, Bitcoin is back into rally mode.

Today, price reclaimed the neckline from a major topping pattern, right around $90K.

That’s been the key level to watch for months.

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US equities remain under pressure as the major indexes break below key VWAPs anchored to their lows.

Meanwhile, critical polarity levels are serving as stiff resistance across key sectors and industry groups, capping last week’s bounce.

Whether it’s Semiconductors, Financials, or Software, buyers continue to struggle in reclaiming the broken support levels from earlier this month.

The SPDR Financial Sector $XLF is a textbook example of this theme. 

After briefly pushing back above the neckline of this top, XLF is now getting rejected right around 48.

That means an increasing supply is overwhelming the buyers near those prices.

Sellers are defending critical levels with...

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Volatility is still running hot, and wild swings in both directions are probably here to stay for longer.

Even though I think the worst is behind us, things still look soft.

There’s little to suggest this choppy, risk-off environment is fading just yet.

One thing that’s helped me big time this year is tracking risk appetite through key ratios.

These relationships show us how money is rotating and where investors are actually putting capital...

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The market’s a rollercoaster right now.

Big moves. Wild swings. Sentiment flipping on a dime.

Intraday ranges are wide, and positions can move fast.

The CBOE Volatility Index $VIX just closed above 45 for three straight sessions this week.

That’s only happened three times in the past 30 years:

🔻 2008 (Great Financial Crisis)

🔻 2020 (Covid)

🔻 2025 (Today)

We’re in an extremely high-volatility environment.

And with the VIX this elevated, here’s a rule of thumb:

VIX ÷ 16 = the expected daily move in the S&P 500.

So, with a ~40 VIX, expect at least a 2.5% per day—in...

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Today was one of the most epic sessions in the history of the stock market.

Amid rumors around tariffs, the S&P 500 ripped higher, closing up 9.5% on the day.

That makes it the third-largest one-day gain for the index going all the way back to 1950.

Moves like this aren't just rare… they are historic.

You can count on one hand how many times the S&P has rallied more than 9% in a single session in the last 75 years.

The green dots in this chart show these historical rallies.

Only during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis, have we seen stronger gains:

• October 13, 2008: +11.6%
• October 28, 2008: +10.8%
...

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The S&P 500 has already fallen 20% from its highs.

The VIX spiked into the 50s.

Panic and fear have taken over, and investors have been in for a roller coaster ride.

Volatility isn’t going away — that’s a given. But broadly speaking, I think the worst is behind us.

Now, we’re seeing key indexes and sectors retesting their prior cycle highs from 2021.

For long-term investors, this is what you wait for.

These kinds of “resets” often create historic opportunities.

But the goal isn’t to catch a falling knife. The...

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Volatility just took over the market in a big way.

Nothing has been safe—Tech, China, Europe, even Bitcoin got slammed.

This has been a full-blown flush.

The bears didn’t leave anything behind.

So now what?

Where’s the support?

Where can this thing stop bleeding?

For the S&P 500, I’m keeping an eye on those former cycle highs from 2021, right around 480. 

This looks like a good place to start—at least for a short-term bounce.

If there’s a line in the sand, 480 feels like the right spot where bulls...

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Today was another massacre for risk assets.

All 11 sectors got crushed.

VIX ripped past 45.

Copper had its worst day since October 2008.

Nothing was safe out there.

And if you're looking for the main culprit, it's Tech.

Tech has been leading this move lower. 

The warning signs were there for weeks. 

Back in January, I highlighted the implications of Technology and...

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Today was tough.

Equities got smoked across the board.

Transports suffered one of their worst days in history.

Semiconductors and Homebuilders  completed massive tops.

The damage is real.

Defensive rotation has been brewing for weeks, and today was yet another reminder the bears are in full control.

When it comes to the bond market, nothing tells the story better than credit spreads.

A month ago, I flagged the HYG/IEI ratio as one of the ...

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Today was called Liberation Day in the U.S.

It’s funny how there’s always a headline everyone is waiting to react to.

I treat these as nothing more than volatility events.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities continue to struggle. 

The bulls haven’t been able to make a comeback.

In crypto land, it’s just as messy.

If there’s...

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The Technology sector continues to struggle, showing little evidence of a tradable low.

Within it, software plays a crucial role in gauging market strength.

These have been the best stocks to own over the past 15 years.

They’re true secular leaders. They are some of the best businesses.

Basically, as they go, so goes the market.

The Software ETF $IGV is retesting its prior cycle highs from 2021.

This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, and now I’m watching to see if it flips into support.