From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Commodities are off to another record year -- and it’s only April!
Crude oil and friends are leading the charge as the energy-heavy CRB Index is up 34% year to date.
Oil ripped above 100 in February and has been in a corrective phase since. The energy complex remains red-hot though, with natural gas futures breaking to fresh 13-year highs this week.
While crude oil finds its footing, its derivatives -- heating oil and gasoline, are coiling just beneath all-time highs and gearing up for some massive base breakouts.
We’re also seeing some bullish data points for the broader oil and gas industry as crack spreads are expanding and signaling a healthy demand for black gold. This bodes particularly well for oil refiners.
All of this price behavior is what we like to call rotation.
It's an essential characteristic of any real bull market, and it’s exactly what we’re seeing from commodities these days.
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats.
In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Treasury Bonds have collapsed in recent months as interest rates have rallied to their highest levels in years.
And it’s not just treasuries, the trend is lower for corporate bonds as well.
While fixed income markets have experienced steady selling pressure since 2021, downside volatility has accelerated in recent months. Following the worst Q1 returns in decades, bonds have continued to plunge to kick off the 2nd quarter.
The best way for us to take advantage of this is to keep finding clean setups to short.
Today, we will outline a couple of shorts in high-yield debt and discuss what a sustained downtrend for these bonds could mean for the broader market.
First up is the High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF $HYG:
HYG completed a topping pattern earlier this year and has been following through lower ever since. Price is currently challenging a critical level at the 2018 lows ~80.
We want to sell a break below that level with a...
These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Monday April 18th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
It’s easy to fixate on percentages when discussing and labeling market moves, especially when those moves are to the downside.
The S&P 500 can be 9.99% below its peak and you’ll hear nothing but crickets. Cross the 10% threshold and it’s a Correction. Cross the 20% threshold and banner headlines announce a Bear Market.
There are plenty of problems with this approach. A market environment where the S&P 500 is down 9.9% from its peak is likely not materially different from one where the index is down 10.1%. The same can be said on either side of the bear market threshold. Problems go beyond these arbitrary, specific thresholds.
The questions it raises reflect its lack of utility for everyone except headline writers: Is a market that is on its way to, but has not yet achieved a 20% peak to trough decline, in a bear market? Or is it still a bull market? And what happens after it enters bear market territory but nudges higher so that the peak to trough decline is now less than the 20% threshold? Is this still a bear market?
Pundits can wrestle with these questions. Historians...
In a letter to the board of directors, Elon Musk has made an unsolicited bid to buy 100% of Twitter $TWTR in an all-cash deal.
He’s offering $54.20 per share, which represents a 54% premium from when he began investing in the stock and a 38% premium from the time it was announced.
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...
Key Takeaway: Renewed selling pressure brings an air of disappointment rather than fear. Lackluster price action, an absence of a meaningful breadth thrust, and an overall risk-off environment leave little to spark an optimistic outlook. We’ve seen bears from a survey perspective, and that has created the conditions for a rally. Now, we need to see an increase in bulls if a rally is to materialize into a bull market. Without a rebound in price it’s hard for bulls to get excited and a v-shaped recovery in optimism (like we saw in 2019 and 2020) becomes less likely.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Reversing From An Extreme
Sentiment is not always best used as a contrarian indicator. The way I learned it was to “go with the crowd until it reverses at an extreme.” In other words, when moving away from extremes go with the crowd. Our sentiment composite shows that pessimism has peaked at excessive levels and that represents an opportunity for investors. Now we need...
Yes, it's tricky both tactically and mentally to get long in the stock market right now. One look at the broader indexes would give any rookie market technician pause.
That said, there are still pockets of strength that are working and growing stronger --- both on a relative and an absolute basis. Which, by the way, is not uncommon. Even in the most vicious bear markets, there are often certain sectors that see gains. And so a bear market may force us to be more selective when searching for bullish bets, but the opportunities are there for those willing to do the work.
With that in mind, today's trade is one of those names that is thriving in this current market environment.