From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check out the International Hall of Famers.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the...
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
With slow but steady improvement in breadth over the past few weeks, we have more and more stocks rising to the top of our scans and making new highs.
Due to continued weakness from the largest stocks, the indexes are masking a lot of this internal strength. But that's OK; we don't have to trade the indexes or any of those issues!
We're finally re-entering an environment where we have plenty of options on the long side.
Here are some new favorites from our Inside Scoop universe...
Market legend Marty Zweig was known for his investing rules. The first among them addressed the importance of staying in harmony with the underlying trend in the market. Good rules are great guides - we ignore them to our own peril.
Why It Matters: Rules need to be more than trite and convenient sayings. But given that we each have our own temperament and time frames, our individual applications will likely vary. For me, recognizing that the trend is my friend and not fighting the tape means respecting the direction of the long-term trend in the S&P 500 and the advance/decline line based on net new highs for the NYSE + NASDAQ. All of the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past two decades have come when at least one of those is rising. Right now, as has been the case almost continuously since February, they are both falling. That is not a tape I want to fight.
And price continues to tell us the Energy bull market still has legs.
Today's trade is a case in point where trading action today announced a declaration that an old-school oil services name wants to continue climbing higher.
Everyone knows fixed income is having one of its worst years on record. And, from the looks of it, we’ll all be dragging our Christmas trees to the curb before US Treasuries stage a miraculous comeback.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe these safe haven assets will dig in and catch higher – eventually. There’s just no sign of it happening any time soon.
Instead of focusing on the disappointing performance of bonds, let’s turn our attention to its relative trends against other major asset classes – stocks and commodities.
Here’s the commodities versus bonds ratio using the CRB Commodity Index and the 30-year Treasury bond futures:
The commodity/bond ratio completed a bearish to bullish trend reversal last year after violating a decade-long downtrend.
This major intermarket shift caught many off-guard, as 12 years of underperformance led the industry to...
The concept of “Tilt” is often discussed when things have gone awry. It’s usually associated with poor risk management and sloppy trading that has led to larger-than-expected losses.
You can no doubt find endless stories of traders in every timeframe who have gone on tilt and proceeded to wreck their month, their capital, and sometimes even their careers.
We’ve all experienced some degree of this in our own trading. It comes with the territory. It takes a rare human who possesses the mental fortitude to stay completely focused no matter what’s happening to their portfolio. Those people are out there – but they’re hard to find.
The downsides of going on tilt when our trades or strategies aren’t working out are fairly obvious.
But we rarely talk about when we go on tilt with a winning position!
This All Star Charts PLUS Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of binary decisions, tactical calls and asset allocation models.
The Fed announced another 75 basis point rate hike yesterday. The upper range of the Fed Funds rate began the year at 0.25% and is now 4.00%, the highest level since early 2008. In his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell made clear that the Fed is not finished raising rates.
Why It Matters: As the prospects of rate hikes materialized earlier this year, there were plenty of assurances that stocks do well when the Fed is raising rates. These perspectives failed to distinguish...
Yesterday we were treated to the latest interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and a speech and Q&A with Fed Chairman Powell that apparently wasn't well received by the market as stocks slid furiously into the closing bell and continued the selloff into this morning.
Where we go from here is anyone's guess. Still, I'd like to take the opportunity to continue taking advantage of consistently elevated options premiums and put on a delta-neutral credit spread in an area of the market where I think some sideways rangebound action may be setting up into the end of the year.
This is that time again where we try to see through the fog of short-term moves and identify the long-term structure of the market. Every month, this process helps have a clear vision going into the new month. So let's dive in and look at some of these charts!