From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Stick save, as they like to say, "and a beauty," as J.C. would add.

The market held where needed.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

2022 Sovereign Stress > 2008 Corporate Stress

The Chart: 

The long-term Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is currently in a drawdown of more than 40%. This exceeds the 35% drawdown that high yield bonds (HYG) experienced in 2008 during the financial crisis.

Why It Matters: 

High yield bond yields are rising but spreads are not widening. That’s because sovereign yields are rising just as fast. That is a big difference between 2022 and 2008. It’s not just peripheral countries. We are seeing stress in the UK and we are seeing stress in Japan. We are also seeing it in the US, where yields are rising at their fastest pace in 40 years, yield curves are inverting and some Treasuries are trading at 50 cents on the dollar. It’s a risk off environment, but one in which risk off assets are leading the way lower.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our October 21, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

If there's anything that this market has taught me, in almost 20 years of doing this, it's that expecting the unexpected should be a way of life.

I've had a front row seat to watch legendary Wall Street firms disappear practically overnight.

I saw Crude Oil Futures trading below Zero.

Flash Crashes.

Growth stocks going up 100x in price with little or not business activity.

Anything can happen.

Today, we have a Form 4 filing by RA Capital Management for new purchases in 89bio Inc $ETNB.

After its latest purchase worth roughly $8.9 million, RA Capital now owns almost half of the public float.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw a bearish reversal yesterday afternoon in the indices.

For today, I'm watching to see if the SPX can hold 3,638, then 3600. We'd need to get back above 3,689, then 3,700, to head back uphill. The $SPY has support at 363, then 360.

I interrupt this bear market to bring you stocks that are going up.

While people are crying about their stocks going down, we're focused on the winners.

You know why? Because winners tend to keep on winning.

And losers? Well, we don't care so much for you. By definition, few people do.

Here's a stock making new 6-month highs this week.

You may have heard of it:

This is the video recording of the October 20th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

10/20/22 2:00 PM ET

Two years ago tomorrow (October 21st), the social financial community lost one of its shining lights, our friend Jon Boorman.

In the year prior, he’d been diagnosed with Glioblastoma, an incurable form of brain cancer, and was given a prognosis of about one year to live.

We cannot possibly fathom what receiving that type of news feels like and I won’t even dare to attempt to imagine it.

All I can say is that when he called me on the phone and broke the news, I couldn’t keep my composure and cried like a baby. Amazingly, by this time Jon had already come to peace with what was happening. Jon, like me, was a fan of Stoic philosophy, and I can’t even begin to describe the awe I had in Jon as he seemed to face down this impending tragedy with amazing calm and acceptance.

One of the great blessings for Jon and his family was

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a fun day in the live trading room. J.C. joined us, and it was fantastic!!

Now, on to the markets folks.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

There's only one thing you need to know about Bitcoin miners. That is, they're essentially long Bitcoin's price, short the hash rate, and short electricity prices.

Wonder why publicly traded Bitcoin miners have been laughable? It's because all these three are moving in the completely opposite direction.

One of the things that continues to really stand out to me is the relentless outperformance in Energy stocks, even in the midst of a major correction in Crude Oil.

You can see it perfectly in this chart. Energy stocks today are making new 52-week highs relative to Crude:

The bond market is the biggest and baddest market of them all.

All these crypto currencies can go to zero and no one who matters will care.

The entire pot industry can disappear tomorrow and it won't matter.

Small-cap stocks aren't relevant, from a systemic perspective.

Do you know what matters? The bond market.

And if there's real stress out there in financial markets, you are going to see it show up in bonds.

It's just math.

But a funny thing happened in Q2 this year. High Yield Credit spreads began to tighten.

If there was real stress, you would be seeing them widening.

In this chart below we're looking at lower lows in the S&P500 but higher lows in the ratio between Junk Bonds and US Treasury Bonds:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The SPX futures are back above 3,700. That's a level I'd like to see maintained.

And I'd prefer SPX above 3712.

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by the senior vice-president of Dave & Buster's Entertainment $PLAY.

This is the fourth Form 4 filing reported for Dave & Buster’s since last week.

This is the video recording of the October 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The DJ Industrial Avg at the Pre-Covid Highs
• Fewer Stocks are making New Lows
• Small-caps, Mid-caps & Micro-caps diverging positively
• Sentiment is at a historic bearish extreme
• Credit Spreads tightening the past 4 months
• Negative Correlation Between US Dollar & Stocks intact
• Consumer Discretionary outpacing Staples
• Sector Level trends are improving
• Energy making new 52-week highs relative to Stocks
• Shorting these REITs and Software Stocks
• Industrials & Regional Banks making new 52wk relative highs
• More Bullish Options Activity in Occidental Petroleum
• Coal Stocks Setting Up For Breakouts
• Industrial Stocks ready to bounce
• Financials holding Support
• Copper/Gold ratio not confirming new highs in Yields
• 5 & 10/yr Breakevens peaked quarters ago
• Emerging Markets down near critical levels
• Seasonally the best time to buy stocks
• List of my favorite stocks to...