From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...
I don't like this market. It can't make up its mind. Things were starting to look promising last week, then Friday happened. And even today, intraday, we're seeing weird, indecisive trading action.
So I know I'm a broken record, but as long as this sideways slop continues, I'm looking to stay delta neutral and sell premium. And with earnings event risk all over the place, it is probably best to stay with liquid ETFs.
How come so many investors get mad that an index, which was designed to buy more of the best stocks and less or none of the worst stocks, owns more of the best stocks and less or none of the worst stocks?
The S&P500 is up over 21% since the October low last year. In fact, last week marked the 1 year anniversary of this bull market.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 is up 40% over the past 12 months (because it's a bear market?)
During this time, Technology is up 46%, Communications is up 42% and Industrials are up 22% - representing the 3 best performing groups of stocks.
One of the relative trends we must regularly evaluate is the relationship between large-caps and small-caps.
Sometimes large-caps outperform. Other times, it’s the little guys leading the way.
This ratio tells us which ones we should be focusing on.
The chart below shows the Russell 1000 Large-Cap ETF (IWB) relative to the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (IWM) breaking out of a monster-basing formation.