From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Everything has been working lately, as the weight of the evidence continues to stack up in favor of the bottom being in for the current cycle.

The short-term breadth thrusts in late July were among the first signs of it. This week, we’re seeing new highs spread out to longer time frames, such as our 63-day indicators.

The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has rebounded higher after undercutting the critical 15% level. This has marked significant bottoms in the past.

Participation has spread beyond growth stocks over the near term, as materials and energy are also rallying and reclaiming key levels. We can say the same for crypto.

And, most importantly, we’re finally seeing upside resolutions. Not only that, they’re holding.

Some of our favorite charts right now are short-term reversal patterns. We’re seeing them all over in growth stocks.

Let’s talk about some we’re buying.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While many started to pay attention to the potential for equity market weakness well after the S&P 500 peaked back in January, a look beneath the surface showed that trouble had been brewing for a while. The percentage of stocks in the S&P indexes that were 20% or more below their highs stopped retreating in March of 2021 and started to rise over the second half of 2021. That intensified over the first half of 2022 and crescendoed to a peak in mid-June (at which point between 75% and 85% of stocks were in drawdowns of 20% or more). The pattern of higher highs and higher lows in this measure of stock market weakness is now being challenged. Already fewer stocks in the mid-cap S&P 400 are in 20% drawdowns than was the case in early June. Small-caps and large-caps aren’t far behind. Before sustained strength, we usually experience waning weakness. And that is what we are seeing right now.  

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our August 12, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The most significant insider transaction on today's list comes from a 13D filing by Jeff Ubben’s Value Act.

The hedge fund revealed an ownership stake of 6.70% in The New York Times Company $NYT.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for months, and now they’re starting to take shape.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh lows, violating a multi-month trend line.

And interest rates… well, they haven’t moved much. They continue to hold their range after peaking in June. 

As expected, stocks surged yesterday in response to a weaker dollar and stable bond market. 

But stocks aren’t the only risk assets on the rise. Investors are moving out on the risk curve and bidding up high-yield bonds, too.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 Index $SPX:

ANGL is one of our favorite high-yield bond ETFs because it contains the...

This is the video recording of the August 11, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

08/11/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I don’t want to count my melons before they are ripe, but letting profits run in the garden looks like it’s going to pay off this year. 

Sorry for the mixed metaphors. This is what I’m talking about… 

I spotted a volunteer melon plant coming up next to the garage earlier this summer. In gardenspeak, a “volunteer” is something that comes up on its own, not because of a seed that was intentionally planted. It’s not in the best spot and I could have pulled it out right away. 

But I didn’t. I let it grow for a little while. Then a little while longer. Now I have an awkwardly-situated cantaloupe plant that covers 30 square feet. 

So why did I leave it?  

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In recent weeks, we've found ourselves revisiting the following question: Is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin a bullish characteristic for the asset class?

We addressed this question a year ago. The conclusion we reached back then was that, while ETH outperforming BTC is not a necessary condition for a bull market, it’s always an encouraging sign when we see it.

In light of the recent disparity in performance between ETH and BTC, we thought we'd re-examine this topic.

Let's get to it.

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by the executive chairman of Energy Transfer LP $ET, who revealed a purchase worth $12.6 million.

Director Matthew R. Cohler revealed an insider buy worth $991,484 in KKR & Co $KKR.

These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our next Live Call will be held on Monday August 15th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday night:

A downtrend consists of a series of lower lows and lower highs.

But the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell2000 Small-cap Index are both making higher highs.

That's, by definition, not a downtrend.

The title of yesterday's post was: "You can't be short".

I encourage you to give that a read.

And while that's happening over in the S&P500 and Ethereum, here's a good look at what's been happening in Growth:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as “a market of stocks.”

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: The bulls are raising their voices in excitement. For the first time this year, momentum and breadth are improving in tandem. Despite the bullish developments in recent weeks, the structural trend remains lower. This newfound optimism builds upon months of selling pressure replaced by broadening pockets of near-term strength. Now that the ball is in the bull's court, they have to do something with it. This means proving they have what it takes to stay in the game, and that we’re experiencing strength beyond an oversold bounce.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors Finding A New Dance Partner?

It would be premature to suggest that the long-running (and recently renewed) love affair that investors have with equities has reached an end. Equity funds continue to see inflows and the monthly AAII asset allocation survey shows household equity exposure remaining in the mid-60’s despite consumer sentiment holding near historic lows. But at the margin,...

We had a resting GTC order filled to exit a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today: