In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss our growing frustrations with the current market environment. Seems neither our bullish bets nor our bearish bets are gaining any traction in this tape.

What can we do with this information?

Watch the show below to see how we arrived at the details for today's trade.

Here's the Play:

I like entering into a $FCX February 30/35/45/50 Iron Condor for an approximately 70-cent net credit. This means I'll be short equal amounts of the February 35 puts and 45 calls, and long the same amount of 30 puts and 50 calls to cap my maximum risk:

As long as $FCX stays inside the range of our short strikes (above $35 per share and below $45 per share), we'll profit in this trade. 

I'll leave a resting order to close this entire spread for a 30 cents net debit to book my profit. This will represent a capture of a little greater than 50% of the premium I collected up front from...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Defensive adjustment to TLT position.
3. Exited XLI position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Cloud computing is one of the biggest megatrends in the world. It's expected to grow by 20% per annum for the foreseeable future.

Rubrik is the leader in cloud data management, an industry they created. 

Like Apple revolutionized the phone, this company has revolutionized cybersecurity.

They've formed strategic alliances with the world's largest cloud companies, such as Microsoft and Amazon.

Moreover, the need for data privacy has never been greater with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and AI agents.

The most incredible thing about this company is its scale economies. As revenue grows, profit margins expand.

This isn't a secret to the market. It's already frontrunning the opportunity here.

As you can see, the market punished the stock for its first two earnings reports. 

However, something clearly changed late last year... the stock rallied over 20% after its report. 

We love buying stocks with this kind of fundamental and technical momentum.

We're buying $RBRK on strength above the VWAP anchored to the all-time high...

We're back on The Morning Show today LIVE on Stock Market TV!

If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!

Today's guest is Jay Woods, New York Stock Exchange Floor Governor and Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He messaged me that he disagrees with my take on the market so we're about to debate LIVE on the show. You're not going to want to miss this one!

...

The most eye-catching insider move today comes from Darsana Capital Partners, which disclosed a 5.30% stake in EchoStar Corporation $SATS via a 13G filing.

Darsana, a hedge fund known for its sharp plays, seems to have spotted something compelling in this satellite communications player.

With top holdings like HCA Healthcare $HCA, Guidewire Software $GWRE, and Hilton Worldwide $HLT, this is a fund that knows how to pick winners—making its move into SATS worth paying attention to.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 13, 2025:

In a notable 13G filing, Point72 Asset Management disclosed a 5.00% stake in Array Technologies $ARRY, signaling growing investor interest in the company.

Adding to the momentum, CEO Kevin Hostetler made a confident move back in November by purchasing shares of his own...

Here's how things stand on the global equity stage right now.

A development that is front and center is the increasing number of countries breaking down. Pictured below is the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF $VGK which has just failed after retesting this broken support.

The trend is definitively down in Europe. This demands attention.

The next few weeks are the most critical time of year for investors in retail and consumer stocks, as companies report their results from the 2024 holiday season and set expectations for 2025.

Find out which retail stocks are best positioned right now in this free report from long-time retail analyst Jeff Macke. 

Get the report here. 

Today's number is... 28.5

Market sentiment is shifting as the average bears reached 28.5 last week, the highest reading since November 2023.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The blue line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green line in the middle panel shows the average bulls from the Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
• The red line in the bottom panel shows the average bears from the II and the AAII.

The Takeaway: We're beginning to notice more bears entering the market, as the average sentiment among bears has reached its highest level since November 2023. At the same time, optimism appears to be fading, with the average sentiment among bulls hitting the lower end of a year-long range.

Typically, we say that nothing influences sentiment like price movement. However, that's not entirely the case in the current...

If you're bullish on gold and silver mining, it's time to BUY BUY BUY.

Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2024, far outpacing precious metal stocks. 

We wouldn't be surprised to see the mining stocks catchup in 2025. Why?

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. 

This chart suggests it's time for some mean reversion 👇

Writing to let everyone know that the next ASC Premium Mid-Month Strategy Session will be next Monday January 20 at 8 pm ET. 

The market’s been a hot mess this past month. Failed breakouts are piling up, with prices slipping back into their ranges and falling below key overhead supply zones.

Beneath the surface, the average drawdown for S&P 500 stocks stands at 18.2%, and the weakness is spreading across major sectors and industry group indexes.

It began with lagging areas like metals and mining, which have already rolled over, and now, groups such as banks are breaking below their prior cycle highs.

Let’s break down the choppy action and highlight the struggles across various groups to hold their breakouts.

Let’s start with the Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary $RSPD:

One of the most important...

Have you or a loved one had back pain before? It's a really crappy problem to have...

That's why Globus Medical has built a robotic navigation system for minimally invasive spine surgery. These procedures are much safer and cheaper than ever before.

As many countries worldwide are struggling with aging demographics, this company stands to benefit from the increase in spine and orthopedic conditions.

It's happening right now. The company doubled its sales last year, and this growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

This trend is far from over.

Globus Medical has rallied after its last 4 earnings reports. 

But it's not just the fundamentals that have us excited about this stock.

The stock chart is one of the most attractive in the market.

Here's why: 

• Positive earnings reactions.
• Clear accumulation pattern on the weekly chart, which we can use to define our risk.
• Volatility squeeze on the daily chart. From volatility compression comes expansion (like a spring).

In other words, the bulls...

I was talking to a colleague this morning and I told him I feel as if I do my best analysis when I'm writing about exactly what I'm doing in the market.

So today’s post is about Solana and why I’m closing my entire position… at least, for now.

Solana has been my largest and most profitable investment of the current cycle. It’s made up over 50% of my crypto exposure for the past 12-15 months.

But I’ve sold just about all of it over the course of the past few weeks.

As most of you know, I try to invest alongside the primary trend.

I got into the trend reversal on time, and now, I feel it's time to leave the party. With each passing day, I feel more and more like I’m overstaying my welcome.

Here’s what SOL looked like when I added the bulk of my bull market exposure over a year ago:

My cost basis in the trade is around 30. That is exactly where the primary trend flipped from sideways to higher.

You don’t need any special tools to measure this kind of thing. It is shown above with a rounding bottom reversal to new highs, confirmed by the...

With $VIX currently sporting a 20-handle, it feels like a good time to add some delta-neutral exposure to the portfolio.

So I'm scanning the list of liquid sector ETFs to see which one's offer good premiums and potential range-bound trading action.

Here's what I found:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Defensive adjustment to XLE position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

We're back on The Morning Show today LIVE on Stock Market TV!

If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!

Today's guest is fellow twin-boy dad Todd Gordon, Portfolio Manager at Inside Edge Capital. Todd is an old pal, veteran trader and world class skier. You're not going to want to miss this conversation!

Join us today...

Carl Icahn tops today’s list with a significant transaction in CVR Energy $CVI disclosed via a Form 4 filing.

Icahn purchased 878,212 CVI shares for approximately $16 million.

CVR Energy is one of Icahn’s top holdings, and this move underscores his long-term conviction in the company. It also reinforces his influence in the energy sector.

There’s interesting institutional activity on today’s list too, with Think Investments submitting a 13G filing for TaskUs Inc $TASK. 

The filing disclosed an initial ownership stake of 16.90%, signaling the firm’s bullish outlook on TaskUs and its potential.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 10, 2025:

In another Form 4 filing, Ecor1 Capital revealed a purchase of $2,974,818 in Zymeworks Inc $ZYME.

Today's number is... 19

My RORO Risk Range Summary, which includes 19 Risk-On versus Risk-Off ratios, has shifted to slightly favor risk-off assets.

Here is the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's first break down what the chart shows:

This RORO Risk Range Summary compares the current trading ratios of 19 risk pairs to their 52-week range, represented by black diamonds, and their range position from one month ago, shown as gray triangles. The right side indicates Risk-On, while the left side indicates Risk-Off.

The Takeaway: When evaluating Risk-On versus Risk-Off ratios, I find the weight of the evidence approach to be very useful. 

In my RORO Risk Range Summary, the risk pair comparisons indicate a slight tilt toward Risk-Off assets over the past month. For 11 out of 19 pairs, the ratios are closer to their Risk-Off component, suggesting a weakening risk appetite.

Furthermore, 12 out of the 19...

Consumer discretionary stocks have been the best stocks over the intermediate term.

The Discretionary Sector SPDR $XLY is leading all other sector indexes over the trailing three and six months.

When we dive beneath the surface, this strength is being driven by a variety of retail stocks.

The largest retailers have led the charge for discretionary, as is the case for most sectors.

Here is the market cap weighted VanEck Retail Index $RTH, trading just off all-time highs:

The largest holdings here are Amazon $AMZN, Walmart $WMT, Costco $COST, and Home Depot $HD. 

It’s all the big boys. These mega-cap names dominate the discretionary sector.

But even the equal weight SPDR Retail Index $XRT is completing a primary trend reversal and embarking on a fresh uptrend.

The largest holdings of this ETF couldn’t be more different than RTH. The top names in XRT are as offensive as they come, including Gamestop $GME, Chewy $CHWY, and Warby Parker $WRBY. It also has high-fliers like Abercrombie $ANF and Urban Outfitters $URBN in its top...