From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers are in the driver's seat when it comes to commodities these days.

Besides natural gas and livestock contracts, few commodities present buying opportunities that we like. In reality, most have either broken down or are on the verge of breaking down. 

As the latest bout of selling pressure shows little signs of easing, we’re likely to experience more damage in the coming days and weeks.

Copper, one of the most economically sensitive and widely followed commodities in the world, is a great example of recent weakness. It can’t stop falling.

Given the downside volatility raw materials have experienced since the start of the summer, many trends are stretched. We don’t want to be too bearish here. We want to let the dust settle.

With that said, it’s hard not to imagine where the bears will strike next.

And when we scroll through our charts, it looks like they have crude oil in their sights.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of crude...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it:

Filter out any stocks that are below their May 10th 2021 high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 index is 20% off its early 2022 high, but remains nearly 14% above its pre-COVID peak. The median stock in the index, however, is now trading just below its pre-COVID high. The last several years have been an experience of tremendous volatility with no upside progress for the median stock. The numbers are even more startling among mid-caps and small-caps. Both the mid-cap S&P 400 and small-cap S&P 600 are nearly 10% above their pre-COVID peaks, but the median mid-cap stock is 10% below its pre-COVID high and the median small-cap stock is 20% below its pre-COVID high. This brings us to commodities. The median commodity is 30% below its high, but remains 20% above its pre-COVID peak. Whether it’s stocks or commodities (or bonds for that matter) there is plenty of volatility in the current environment. The volatility in commodities is in the context of an underlying up-trend. With the median stock in the S&P 500 returning to its pre-COVID high (and the Value Line Geometric Index where it was in 2018), it’s been an unrewarding roller coaster ride for stocks. 

...

That's a blog post title I never thought I'd write. LOL.

Even more strange, the trade we're putting on today is in a public company with an unusual name I've never heard of before!

Weird times, indeed.

Steve Strazza and I looked at it a bit on Tuesday during our "Flow Show" on twitter and I was less than enthusiastic at the time. But as the trade has marinated around my brain a little bit since then, it has grown on me.

This is the video recording of our July 15, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The US Dollar took a little break from going up yesterday, and that has continued a bit this morning.

A funny thing happens when the Dollar isn't ripping - stocks and crypto prices are able to rise....

Today is Crypto Fridays around here at Allstarcharts.

We start with our 7AM meeting with the whole Crypto Team going over everything from the major trends, to new coins popping up on our screens, or the latest from the private world of defi and web 3.

Then at 10AM ET we hold our weekly Crypto Strategy session for Members of ASC Crypto.

[Call +1 (323) 421-7910 to access ASC Crypto Trade Ideas and Reports]

In addition to all of this, I like to schedule my "Crypto" type meetings to...

Last night, the Wall Street Journal reported that Paul Singer’s Elliott Management is now the largest investor in Pinterest $PINS, having built a stake greater than 9%.

While the hedge fund hasn’t filed anything with the SEC yet, it has apparently been in discussions with the social media company for the past several weeks.

We should know more soon.

This is the video recording of the July 14, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

07/14/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I'm watching a butterfly emerge from a chrysalis.

Literally.

I’m not conjuring a metaphor. This is happening in real life… in a jar on my desk.

A few weeks back, I found some Black Swallowtail caterpillars in my dill patch. I collected several, provided a steady supply of fresh dill, and watched them grow big and plump.

Eventually, they attached themselves to a stick, shed their caterpillar skins and have spent the last couple of weeks undergoing an amazing metamorphosis inside their chrysalis.

Reorganization complete, they are now emerging anew.

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

Yesterday was a 101-level class on why to follow money flow as opposed to narratives.

We were presented with a CPI of 9.1%, exceeding the expectations of 8.8%. By CPI standards, this is the highest inflation in 40 years.

And, yet, gold got crushed.

I saw this meme while mindlessly scrolling through Twitter and found it pretty hilarious:

Warren Buffett continues to increase his position in the oil and gas exploration and chemical manufacturing company Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A filed another Form 4, revealing roughly $250 million of new purchases.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We publish this column...

These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our next Live Call will be held on Monday July 18th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday night:

"JC what's on your mind these days?"

I get asked this a lot. So it keeps me on my toes.

But it's a great exercise, even if you're not being asked regularly by colleagues and journalists.

So what is on my mind?

It's this.

It's still this.

It's the strong Dollar preventing stocks and crypto assets from rising in price:

This is the video recording of our July 13, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s inescapable. If you haven’t read it in the news, seen it on Twitter, or heard it from a co-worker, here’s the scoop…

The euro has tumbled to parity with the dollar for the first time in almost 20 years!

That’s the big news in the currency markets these days. Sure, it’s a significant development.

But what currency isn’t falling against the US dollar right now?

It’s an interesting question. And it draws our attention to the Canadian dollar.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of the USD/CAD cross:

While the US dollar steamrolls everything in sight and prints fresh decade-highs against most major currencies, it’s still dealing with last year’s highs against the Canadian dollar.

Bulls continue to chip away at overhead supply, to no avail.

Remember, the resilience of commodity-centric currencies has been the story for almost a year. But the CAD is one of few left standing...

Volatility still remains relatively high across the board, with this morning's trading action further boosting it.

I'm on the hunt for some delta-neutral, short-premium plays to take advantage of this environment. But the trick is finding an instrument that is showing signs of potential range-bound action. Too many of my go-to sector ETFs are trending (mostly lower) and trends are the enemy of delta-neutral strategies.

I had to dig a little, but I think I found the right instrument for us to earn some options premium in.