Large Cap Value $IWD has migrated to the top of the ETF Power Rankings for the US Indexes as growth continues to underperform.

Will growth continue underperforming?

This is the chart to look at it.

It's not over for growth until we see this ratio go below this line; I'd be surprised to not see growth begin outperforming as we hit this clear support level.

So while the trend has favored value for some time now, I wouldn't discount growth here.

Today's number is... 4

Here is a four-panel chart showing the recent strength of gold and its outperformance versus the other main asset classes.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The yellow line is the Gold ETF index price.
• The blue line is Gold relative to Bonds.
• The gray line is Gold relative to Stocks.
• The black line is Gold relative to Commodities.

The Takeaway: If you didn't know already, we’re in the midst of a massive gold rush.

Gold has been an outstanding place for your money since breaking out of its multi-year base in early 2024.

The new absolute and relative highs we’re seeing are signals of strength, not weakness. 

When the lines go from the lower left to the upper right, we call those uptrends.

Right now, gold is at fresh all-time highs on an absolute basis, and it’s showing remarkable strength with 4-year highs relative to US stocks. Additionally, gold is achieving new all-time highs relative to bonds, and it’s also making 4...

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Before I position myself or act in the market, I weigh the evidence in front of me.

It’s my main job. It’s all I think about.

It’s how I make market calls, and it is the basis for my trading and investing decisions.

It’s also my most difficult job. I think any strategist or investor would agree.

The truth is… In technical analysis, there is no special indicator. There is no secret sauce. 

We’re all looking at the same charts. 

And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to discern between an uptrend and a downtrend. Or a top versus a bottom.

That’s not where disagreement is sewn among us. That's rarely what makes one technical opinion or market view differ from another.

It’s about how we weigh all of the different data points.

It’s how we put together the puzzle. 

This kind of expertise comes from time in...

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The Technology sector continues to struggle, showing little evidence of a tradable low.

Within it, software plays a crucial role in gauging market strength.

These have been the best stocks to own over the past 15 years.

They’re true secular leaders. They are some of the best businesses.

Basically, as they go, so goes the market.

The Software ETF $IGV is retesting its prior cycle highs from 2021.

This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, and now I’m watching to see if it flips into support.

We have to be selective out here. The names that were working last year are not the names or sectors that are working this year.

Meanwhile, downtrends that have been in place for a year or more are starting to find their footing. And when you add in a relatively high short interest, if the worst is now behind us, then names like the one I'm trading today have the potential to surprise to the upside.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLP.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed ITB position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

CEOs stepping in always catches our attention—especially when they come in clusters.

Here are a few from yesterday:

📌Signet Jewelers $SIG CEO J.K. Symancyk bought 15,000 shares, equivalent to $861,735.

📌President and CEO Peter Matt of Commercial Metals $CMC revealed a purchase of 6,100 shares.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 31, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌CEO Toni Townes-Whitley and Director Milford W. McGuirt of Science Applications International Corp $SAIC filed Form 4s, revealing insider purchases totaling $299,047.

When multiple insiders step in at the same time, it strengthens the signal of confidence in the company’s future.

📌Last but not least, Director John M. Jansen of Oklo $OKLO disclosed a Form 4 revealing a purchase of $147,412.

If you're not scared of what's happening in your stock portfolio you probably aren't paying attention. 

The first quarter was the worst for US stocks since Q3 of 2022 and the first negative quarter of any sort since 2023. The damage didn't really spare anyone, but Consumer Discretionary was the hardest hit, falling over 11% for the period and bouncing off the over-hyped 20% decline required to qualify as an official "Bear Market".

It's time to revisit and expand upon our Bear Market Rules.

I've seen a bear market or two in the last 25 years. This is what they feel like. Relentless. Capricious. Mean. 

Need an example? How about the Worst Stock of the Quarter, the until recently widely beloved Deckers Outdoor:

DECK closed the quarter down 50% (nearly to the penny) from where it was trading before beating and raising last January 31st. And, as is generally the case with stocks, shares went down much faster than they went higher, falling 22% in one day and scarcely bouncing higher since.

Deckers was a wildly successful...

Today's number is... 22

My Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio has reached a 22-month low, dropping below a key level that acted as resistance in 2021/22, which transformed into support from 2023 to the present.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio.
  • The Risk-On components consist of Copper (HG1), High Yield Bonds (JNK), Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD), Semiconductors (SOXX/SPY) & High Beta (SPHB/SPY).
  • The Risk-Off components consist of Gold (GC1), US Treasury Bonds (TLT), Yen (JPYUSD), Utilities (XLU/SPY) & Staples (XLP/SPY).
• If this ratio rises, the numerator (risk-on) is outperforming the denominator (risk-off); if it is falling, the denominator (risk-off) is outperforming the numerator (risk-on).

The Takeaway: The message right now continues to be… we are in a Risk-Off environment. 

This looks to be a pivotal moment for the US stock market. With this key level now broken, it reinforces the weak market conditions I’ve been...

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While everyone is paying attention to how bad tech stocks are doing these days, inflation expectations are heating up.

When investors see inflation coming, they shift into TIPS over traditional Treasuries.

Energy is one of the biggest inputs in inflation, and history shows these two tend to move together.

TIPS vs Treasuries ratio just hit its highest level in nearly three years.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil is trading at the lower bounds of its range.

While they might drift apart at times, they always find their way back in sync.

If that happens here, Crude could be...

The Gold and Silver Miners have been on fire.

Today is the final trading session of Q1 2025, and these stocks are on pace for one of the best quarters ever in absolute terms. 

In relative terms, this has been the best quarter ever in many cases.

These returns have been historic, yet nobody seems to care.

We believe this strength will foster more growth in the future, and here's why.

In my mind right now, it's a bear market in stocks until proven otherwise.

But as everyone's favorite cable TV financial prognosticator Jim Cramer says: "There's always a bull market somewhere."

And one of those places appears to be in the energy and oil sectors.

Today's trade has a chart that appears to be ready to break out of a three-month base on its way to new decade highs.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled IGV Puts to June.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended March 14th, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...