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[Options Premium] Don't Sleep On This Idea

February 19, 2021

When the world gets back to normal, you have to believe people will be itching to get back on the road and start traveling again. There are a number of industries that will benefit from this, of course.

And one stock from a beaten down sector in 2020 is making new all time highs right now! This is the kind of trade I want to get into.

Happy Anniversary of "The Top" In The Market

February 19, 2021

This week marks the one-year anniversary of the top in 2020 for the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 Indexes.

Everything immediately fell apart after that and we experienced one of the greatest crashes in history.

This leads some people to think that with these indexes now making new all-time highs once again, a crash can happen at any time....

But what most people conveniently like to forget is that everything else had already been rolling over by this point last year. The only indexes left still making new highs were those 3 U.S. Large-caps.

Today, let's run it back to last year and see what was actually going on, so you can see just how different things are today. All of these charts are from posts and client presentations I gave last February.

First, take a look at Small-caps, Mid-caps and Small-caps all making lower highs by this point last year:

Debuting The Outperformers

February 19, 2021

Big day everyone! We are debuting a new feature for Premium Members of All Star Charts India! There are a lot of exciting things lined up, but it's time to reveal a little something now.

Introducing the new kid on the block- The Outperformers!

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The market as a whole does not move together. Regardless of the market direction, there are always certain stocks and sectors that act as leaders and laggards. As the name suggests, the Leaders are the first to respond to a particular trend, whereas the Laggards join in later.

There is a big advantage in identifying these leaders in any given market environment. These are the names that generate greater returns compared to market indices as well as other stocks.

For example, in a market environment where mid-caps are outperforming the large-caps, it would make sense to be invested in mid-caps rather than large-caps.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

February 18, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza 

Our Top 10 report was just published; our weekly report highlighting the best 10 ideas and respective charts we are seeing across the markets this week. One idea and chart that really has our attention is Emerging Markets overlaid with The CRB Index.

Emerging Markets hit new all-time highs last week. This is supportive of the bullish action we’re seeing from stocks in other regions of the globe as well as economically-sensitive commodities. It is no coincidence that the Emerging Markets ETF $EEM and the CRB index tend to peak and trough in unison throughout history. They relay a similar message of “risk-on.” The big question now is whether it’s time for Commodities to play catch-up with Emerging Markets.

PSU Banks Gatecrashed The Rally

February 18, 2021

You'd have to be a part of the market for quite some time to be able to claim that you witnessed a bull run in the PSU Banks sector. This sector is notorious for perpetual underperformance regardless of the market sentiment.

Well, maybe that's changing. Over the past two weeks, these hibernating stocks decided to wake up and join the party. Looks like they finally received the invite for the ongoing rally!

A move above 1,900 in the PSU Banks Index is crucial and here's why. This level has played the role of strong support for close to seven years. With the breach of this level in early 2020, the principle of polarity would mean that 1,900 would turn into stubborn resistance. The fact that PSU Banks has broken out of this resistance rather quickly, hints at the strength that's building in this index.

We are bullish above 1,900, for targets near 2,645 & 3,445.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Relatively speaking, the PSU Banks Index has broken out of its resistance zone and is ready for the next leg of...

Top/Down Take: Indian Bank (INDIANB)

February 18, 2021

Here we go with another round of our Top-Down Take post. At All Star Charts we like to keep things simple and look at the bigger picture. We let the charts speak to us and then decide what to do. Always remember, the Trend is our Friend.

Today we’re taking a look at the sector that seems to be rallying with a vengeance! The PSU Banks are out and about, finally enjoying their moment in the sun.

[PLUS] Weekly Macro Perspectives - Stocks Expensive Even With Better Than Expected Earnings

February 17, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaways:

  • Both sales and earnings coming in better than expected
  • Rising bond yields and higher inflation put pressure on valuations
  • Excesses unlikely to be unwound while breadth remains strong & surprises are to the upside

Nearly three-quarters of the stocks in the S&P 500 have issued Q4 2020 earnings reports. The results have provided some cause for celebration. Earnings are now seen as rising 3%, versus an expected decline of 10% as of Dec. 31st. This is not strictly a function of shifting costs, write-offs and other methods of financial engineering. Sales in the quarter have surpassed expectations by more than 3%, the largest amount on record (going back to 2008). This eclipses the previous record which was set in Q3 2020. Companies in the S&P 500 have weathered the COVID-crisis much better than analysts had expected and that is being reflected in stock prices.

...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (02-15-2021)

February 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to harp on the risk-on themes that support our bullish macro thesis.

Rotation down the market-cap scale, commodity strength, and defensive alternatives making new relative lows have been some major themes we continue to see play out.

As participation continues to expand in both the US and abroad, we're being given more and more avenues to position ourselves in order to profit in the current environment.

While Tech and Growth still remain the secular leaders, even the perennial laggards such as...

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

February 16, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: There is ample evidence of investor complacency, optimism, and aggressive risk-taking.

The behavior of the broad market (another breadth thrust last week and the weekly NYSE + NASDAQ new high list is at its highest level ever) suggests some of this may be justified.

Sentiment is likely to become a more acute headwind when rally participation narrows and/or optimism remains elevated in the face of market volatility.

For now, optimism has been revealed as a mile wide but only an inch deep, with concern rising the moment the market stops rallying.

"India Indicator" Better Than "Buffett Indicator"

February 16, 2021

If you're ignoring the Indian Stock Market, I think you're doing yourself a huge disservice.

Even if you never plan on trading stocks in India at any point in your life, it doesn't matter. There's amazing information coming from there.

For example, take a look at that relative strength in Indian Bank stocks before US Stocks, and Stocks in general, rallied throughout 2019. That was an epic rally, if you recall.

The Indian Banks had already been telling us that it was coming!