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Follow the Flow (10-24-2022)

October 24, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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The Minor Leaguers (10-24-2022)

October 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

October 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big-picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • Our macro universe was positive this week, with 77% of our list closing higher with a median return of 2.96%.
  • Lumber $LB was the winner again, closing with a 9.11% gain.
  • The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -7.28%.
  • There was a 3% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
  • Only 51% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs....

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

October 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

They Can’t Break the Banks

Unlike most industry groups, community banks never completed a top, as price has remained above the pivot lows from last year. Additionally, momentum has not reached oversold conditions during the current bear cycle. If this range remains intact, the world isn't coming to an end any time soon.

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes

October 24, 2022
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Reversal - Or Just a Respite?

The new low list peaked in May and the new high list bottomed in July. Despite this, we’ve had more new lows than new highs in 44 of the past 46 weeks.

The Details: More than 4400 stocks (48% of the total on the NYSE + NASDAQ) made new lows in May. That was the most since March 2020. The new low list has ebbed and flowed since then but has not surpassed that peak. The 116 stocks (just 1% of NYSE + NASDAQ total) that made new highs in the first week of July was the fewest since April 2020. Last week 357 stocks (4%) made new highs and 1645 (18%) made new lows.

More Context: When downtrends ready to turn higher and new bull markets are being born, we usually see a sharp collapse in new lows accompanied by a gradual expansion in new highs. The combined effect is that new highs begin to consistently outnumber new lows. We saw this in early 2019 and again after the COVID lows. There were two weeks in August in which the new high list was longer than the...

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[Options Premium] Blue Steel

October 24, 2022

I dunno why, but thinking about train tracks and rail stocks got me thinking of Blue Steel. There is absolutely no connection between today's trade and the pose made famous by the Zoolander film. But, you're welcome.

Today's trade idea comes straight from All Star Charts' recent Mid-Month Conference Call.

While not aggressively bullish here, I do think there is an opportunity to leverage high options premiums into a high-probability bet.

 

Chart of the Day: No Defensive Rotation

October 24, 2022

Where is the defensive rotation?

I was told US Stocks were in a bear market.

For those keeping score at home, the NYSE new lows list peaked in June. That was over 4 months ago.

But Consumer Staples have been underperforming since May!

All Star Charts Crypto

Nothing Has Changed: It's Still a Mess

October 24, 2022

Nothing's changed.

That's it -- that's the post. There's nothing to discuss.

Bitcoin and the rest of the asset class are still a choppy mess. There's no conviction in taking longs until price action can shape up in a more bullish manner.

Given the lackluster market conditions, this letter will act as yet another brief interim update.

The Outperformers

October 23, 2022

The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our custom-made scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for significant moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

Make Money or Gossip About Fed Policy?

October 22, 2022

Why are you an investor?

Have you asked yourself that recently?

Why do you take time out of your life to enter into the arena that we call markets?

Are you here to make money?

Or would you rather gossip about fed??

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Energy Hasn’t Even Broken Out

October 21, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s easy to lose sight of how impressive energy has been this year. 

We get it. Sideways action is boring.

But while the rest of the market has been selling off, energy has shown incredible resilience, digesting gains in a continuation pattern since early summer.

After an explosive rally for energy stocks off the 2020 lows, it’s normal to experience an extended period of corrective action. In fact, it’s healthy. 

Now get this...

Many of these stocks haven’t even broken out yet!

We know it sounds crazy, especially when some of these industry groups have more than tripled during the trailing 24 months.

But the charts don’t lie. They’re telling us some of these trends might just be getting started. Let’s take a look.

We can break down oil and gas companies into three main categories: upstream, midstream, and downstream. 

These designations refer to where a particular company operates along the supply chain, from extracting the raw material to selling the refined...