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(Commodities Weekly) Support & Squeeze 📊

June 13, 2025

Crude oil just ripped higher with its biggest 3-day rally since March 2022.

And the timing couldn’t be more interesting.

The energy trade looked like it was unraveling.

But the bulls are stepping in and repairing the damage.

Valid tops have turned into "not tops" and bear traps.

This burst of upside momentum comes right as crude is bouncing off a major support zone, both in absolute terms and relative to the broader market. 

Energy stocks have been under pressure for months, but this looks like a potential turning point.

Not only is the price action improving, but positioning is also offside. 

Short interest in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF $XOP just hit its highest level in years.

A lot of the individual stocks have the highest short interest ever.

The unwind could fuel a powerful move higher across...

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The Strazza Letter

Swinging Stocks of War

June 13, 2025

Let’s get one thing straight… I’m not some sort of defense industry perma bull.

Trust me, those people exist.

They hang out in the same circles as the ‘end-of-days’ folks, national debt doomers, and gold bugs.

It’s just not for me. I’m an optimist.

However, I’m also a good old-fashioned trend follower.

And these stocks have taken on a new leadership role, so we’ve been buying them. Here is Aerospace & Defense relative to the S&P 500:

 

This base breakout is in the books, and the path of least resistance is now higher for this ratio. All that means is expect more outperformance from these stocks over longer timeframes.

But I’m most interested in making money right now. This week, this month, this quarter.

And as I flipped through the A&D components today, there was one chart that I just...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

HACK the Market

June 13, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

With geopolitical pressures heating up in the Middle East, cybersecurity stocks are back in focus.

These companies build the digital armor that protects governments, businesses, and ordinary folks from online threats—and honestly, that feels more essential than ever right now.

The Cybersecurity ETF $HACK is up 34% from its April lows, and it’s been outperforming the broader market the whole way.

After a clean retest of its prior cycle highs, HACK is boomeranging with a near-vertical move. 

Now it’s bumping up against that 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 85 — the same level that stopped it cold earlier this year.

 ...
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The Hall of Famers (06-13-2025)

June 13, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

Legacy Tech, New Tricks 📈

June 13, 2025

Oracle $ORCL is proving that old tech can still deliver new growth.

The $600B enterprise software giant just posted a double beat, and the stock surged 13.3% to fresh all-time highs.

Buyers followed through on Friday with an additional 7.7% increase.

It’s the latest sign that Oracle’s multi-year cloud transformation is working.

After decades as a dominant database provider, Oracle has successfully repositioned itself as a modern cloud infrastructure and applications company. 

And that pivot is accelerating.

Total revenues are ramping higher, and the management team expects this to accelerate.

They raised full-year revenue guidance to the fastest in decades.

In addition, they're benefiting from major tailwinds in generative AI and large language model training. 

Partnerships with Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft are positioning them as a key player in the future of cloud computing.

And the market is rewarding this shift.

The market is consistently rewarding the stock for its earnings reports..

Oracle has quietly re-entered the conversation as one of the most essential platforms in enterprise software...

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The Strazza Letter

Buy the Missiles, Kid

June 13, 2025

“Look kid, if you hear the missiles are flying, you buy them. You don’t sell them.”

— Art Cashin, Wall Street legend.

No doom and gloom here. That’s not our style.

We don’t get caught up in hot headlines or silly narratives. We follow trends — regardless of what’s going on in the world. 

And right now, one of the clearest, most durable trends on the tape is in Aerospace & Defense.

And maybe it’s because of this war here, or the geopolitical issues there. Or maybe it’s just because industrials are the leaders and this is a bull market.

Here’s the thing… There will always be wars, and fear will always have a significant impact on human behavior. 

I can tell you we’re buying these stocks because of some headlines out of Russia… but that wouldn’t be the truth. 

We’re...

Macke's Retail Roundup,
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Watching Golf Is Work

June 13, 2025

If you aren't watching the US Open are you even working?

Leaving aside the finances of LIV and the PGA. You can also throw out the slow-growth, low-margin equipment business. I'm here for the outfits. These fittish, highly-strung men are soldiers in the global war for the soul of the most loyal, price-oblivious customers in all of retail: Men. All golf clothes are basically athleisure now. Men's athleisure is a $100b business and growing. 

Here's Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka. 

 

Justin is wearing a $98 Talo Polo and $198 Sequoia Knit Trousers from Greyson Clothiers. Justin is one of the financial backers of Greyson, which just raised $20 million in Series A money. Greyson didn't disclose the terms but if the company pulls in, say, $50 million $250 million would be a ballpark guess. Other "friends of Greyson" include Jon Rahm, Shane Lowrey, and Justin Timberlake, who used to be big with the kids.

The Greyson website lets you cosplay as your favorite golfers with a simple click. And, seriously, any brand that works for Justin Timberlake and...

Hot Corner Insider

John Paulson Reports a $14.7 Million $BHC Buy

June 13, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Bausch Health $BHC – Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson just filed a Form 4 for a $14.7 million purchase.

That’s a massive insider buy from someone who doesn’t make quiet moves. Paulson’s conviction here speaks volumes – especially in a beaten-down pharma name trying to find its footing at a key level of support. 

📌 Builders FirstSource $BLDR – Todd Vance, president of the east division for BLDR, filed a Form 4 for $225,000.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 12, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Mach Natural Resources $MNR – Director William Wallace McMullen filed a Form 4 for $3.4 million....

The Daily Number

More Chaos. More Gains. Now What?💥

June 13, 2025

Today's number is... 437 

We’ve already seen 437 days where the S&P 500 moved ±1% in the 2020s — and the decade’s only halfway done.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue bars is the S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
  • The gray bar is the average S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
  • The red bar is the S&P 500 ±1% days in the 2020s.

The Takeaway:

To put that in perspective, the average full decade — from the 1950s through to the 2010s — logged around 504 of these big-swing days. We’re already at 437, and there’s still nearly five years to go.

At this pace, the 2020s are set to become the most volatile decade in modern market history.

Not because of one-off shocks or extreme crashes — but because of the sheer frequency of large daily moves.

Historically, that kind of volatility hasn’t ended well.

More swings usually mean more stress.

But the 2020s? So far, they’re bucking that trend.

Despite all the whiplash,...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 The Nuclear Renaissance

June 13, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

There's something happening in America I'm still wrapping my head around.

The country is building mini nuclear reactors all over the place to power academic institutions, artificial intelligence data centers, and the most successful companies in the world.

I don't think there's a better representation of how America creates wealth more than the energy abundance it's trying to create. Because let's face it, the only limitation to growth is energy. And as far as the smartest minds are concerned, the only constraint on energy is our ability to expand our generational capacity.

...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Don’t Ignore Bonds

June 12, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

When I started diving into markets back in 2018, bonds barely caught my eye. Now, they’re on my radar every single day.

Over time, I’ve learned just how important they really are.

You might not like it. Maybe they seem boring or too slow. Maybe you don’t trade them at all.

But the bond market moves everything else. It always has—and it always will.

For some perspective, the bond market sits at $140 trillion—far bigger than global equities, with gold, silver, and crypto nowhere near that size.

Every time the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT gets down near this level, buyers show up.

 

Every single time.

If TLT is...

On-Demand Disruption Meets Big Retail 📊

June 12, 2025

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

But a big newswire hit the tape this morning, and it's worth paying attention to.

Uber Eats announced a partnership with Dicks Sporting Goods $DKS and Golf Galaxy to offer on-demand delivery from hundreds of stores nationwide.

Yes, you read that right.

Sports gear, apparel, and even golf clubs are delivered to your door in under an hour.

It’s not just about convenience. 

It’s a strategic shift for both companies.

Uber $UBER has spent the past few years aggressively diversifying away from its legacy ride-share business.

They're already the largest component of the iShares Transportation ETF $IYT.

But they are determined to continue growing and rewarding shareholders.

Here's what's happening with Uber's business 👇
  • Delivery now generates nearly 40% of total revenue.
  • Gross bookings in delivery hit all-time highs last quarter....
Breakout Multiplier

Buying More Time in CRK

June 12, 2025

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you want access to these trades in real time, sign up risk-free today!

Back in mid-March, we took a shot on $CRK as a natural gas play.

The stock was putting the finishing touches on a decade-long bearish-to-bullish reversal — and we nailed it.

We locked in profits, sold the double, and let the rest ride with zero risk.

But here’s the thing — those calls expire next week… and I’m not done with this trade.

Price has been coiling in a tight range just above the breakout level.

Call it a bull flag, a...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/12/25

June 12, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to USO position.
  3. Closed TLT at Profit Target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!