From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Equity markets around the globe are getting rocked as we close out another rough week.

And then there's China, which is green on the day.

This isn't just a one-day thing. In fact, it's quite the opposite. China has been showing impressive relative strength since bottoming in late October.

Today is just a microcosm of what that leadership has looked like.

It's had our attention for a while already, which is why we're about to discuss the structural outlook for Chinese stocks and outline some long ideas in the strongest names.

Here's the performance of a basket of international equity ETFs since markets bottomed and ripped higher on Oct. 13:

While China didn't bottom until a few weeks later, on Oct. 31, the MSCI China ETF $MCHI has still outperformed other global stock market indexes over this period.

When we look at the performance of Chinese Technology $CQQQ, the leadership is even more pronounced. Most US-listed Chinese stocks fall into the...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

After unexpectedly good headline and core CPI prints for November, the stocks were caught off guard by unexpectedly hawkish forecasts on both rates and inflation when the Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Why It Matters: The market is used to looking at core CPI as a way to filter out inflation noise. The problem is that core CPI was created with political motives, not for economic clarity. The median CPI is a better tool for discerning underlying trends. Central tendency measures of inflation (like the median CPI) were slower to climb post-COVID but now show inflationary pressure persisting. This helps explain why the Fed is likely to remain in inflation fighting mode longer than the market now expects. The Fed’s record here is not without blemish. Pre-COVID they were overly focused on the core indexes and missed the building of inflation pressure. In 2012, both the median and core CPI showed inflation near 2.3%. Core CPI was still there in the...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Today $SPY filled its gap from the Nov. 10 CPI print.

We're currently below the major moving averages.

This is the video recording of our December 16, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

At this point, it is almost becoming a cliche. But whenever the market sells off and Berkshire Hathaway takes a dip, it's almost becoming money in the bank to sell puts.

It's already worked for us numerous times this year. This won't work forever, of course, but until it stops working we should keep giving it a go.

With this in mind, let's get to work.

An All Star Options community member recently sent me an email asking about the Average True Range (ATR) indicator and whether or not it is helpful in ascertaining if options premiums are elevated or depressed in the underlying instrument. 

For a pretty thorough explanation of what ATR is, here’s a blurb I found on macroption.com:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Bryant R. Riley, chairman and CEO of B. Riley Financial $RILY.

Riley reported a purchase of $2.5 million worth of RILY stock.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Another gap lower for the indices this morning. I'll be watching to see if the $SPX can hold 3,861 or so.

I was looking for a gap down. Now we'll see if we can get a bounce.

With the major indexes below overhead supply, you're seeing the choppy action.

There are stocks continuing to do very well, like Homebuilders for example. And there are some stocks really struggling, like U.S. Banks.

But in the aggregate, at the index level, you're seeing the grind.

It's the weekly bond market edition of What the FICC?

Today we're highlighting the breakout in bonds.

Check it out!

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market opened lower and continued on that path all day.

It was a tough day, and I tried to manage risk.

The $SPX hit some support at 3,887. The next level down is 3,867.

This is the video recording of the December 15th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

12/15/22 2:00 PM ET

These are the registration details for our Live Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday December 20th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday night:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley  

"Trade what’s in front of you."

We say it all the time.  And it sounds simple enough.

But, with an immense amount of information circulating, it can be difficult to distinguish what’s important. 

That’s why we focus on price. Price filters the noise and useless data.

At the end of the day, it's price that pays. 

So, if bonds are breaking out to fresh multi-month highs, we should buy bonds, right?

Here’s a quick look at the bond market buy signals triggered earlier in the month: 

All three are still in play.

The five, 10-, and 30-year Treasury futures continue to churn above our risk levels. As long as that’s the case, we want to remain long toward our upside objectives...

One of the great things about options trading is the flexibility afforded to traders to combine multiple contracts, of the same or differing expirations, long or short, to express unique ways to participate in whatever thesis we might have about the future direction or opportunity the market is offering.

Depending on the type of trader and person we are, this menu of choices available either incredibly excites us, or it overwhelms us with analysis paralysis.

I usually fall into the first camp, excited about the choices. But I'll admit to sometimes feeling myself unable to make a confident strategy decision.

So when opportunities like today's trade come along, I get pumped. This is because today's trade is my favorite kind of setup. Both for the potential of the move and the simplicity in how we can play it!

Regardless of whether the majority of stocks in the market are going up or down, there seems to always be a group that just wants to keep on falling in price.

They can't help themselves.

Investors just hate them.

And with that hatred, of course, comes opportunity.

Here's this week's shit list:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We're still picking our spots selectively when it comes to long ideas on our Inside Scoop list.

However, every now and then, some secular leaders pop up on our scan, offering us nice entries and favorable risk-reward ratios.

We're always looking for ways to gain exposure to these outperformers.

Today, we have two industry bellwethers and household names that recently broke out to new highs relative to the broader market.

Let's take a look at these leaders now.

There's no denying we've been on the sidelines for the longest time.

Equity markets have stalled at logical resistance zones, while the greenback looks primed to experience a mean-reversion rally. At the same time, Bitcoin $BTC, Ethereum $ETH, and most altcoins are either below their June lows or messy at best.

It's no surprise crypto stocks continue to slide and now trade at year-to-date lows.

What a tragic sector...