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Add To Growth? Or Dump It?

March 9, 2021

So here's the question, with the inevitable mean reversion for growth and tech, will you take that opportunity to lighten up on any growth & tech you have left to buy more value?

Or will you double down on the growth and ignore value stocks?

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Young Aristocrats (March 2021)

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.

Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix...

[Podcast] The Bitcoin Episode w/ Greg King, Founder & CEO of OSPREY Funds

March 8, 2021

Bitcoin is a market that we are very fond of here at Allstarcharts. You've heard me say it plenty: it's a beautiful case study for Technical Analysis.

It's not a company. There are no fundamentals.

And you guys have watched us analyze the behavior of Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies since early 2016.

It's been pretty amazing to watch and participate in a new market like this. They were telling us we were late to the party back then. They're still saying the same thing now.

My bet is crypto is here to stay. So who better to have a conversation with than Greg King, Founder & CEO of OSPREY Funds, the newest vehicle to give investors access to this market.

This is probably one of the...

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Under The Hood (03-08-2021)

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ending March 5, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.

In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.

The bottom line is there are a million ways to skin this cat. Relying on our entire arsenal of data makes us...

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Favorable Conditions For Canadian Investors

March 7, 2021

The Canadian economy is dominated by Financials and has a diverse and abundant exposure to natural resources. Despite the close proximity, the composition of the country's stock market couldn't be more different from that of the US.

They have a much higher relative exposure to areas like Financials, Energy, and Materials... Basically, all the things that are working.

On the other hand, they have significantly lower exposure to areas like Technology, Health Care, and Discretionary... Basically, all the areas that are NOT currently working.

Long story short, considering the current backdrop of global economic growth and reflation, rising rates and commodity prices, and rotation into cyclical areas and...

Growth Investor or Portfolio Growth?

March 6, 2021

You see, just because you and your crazy friends have way too much U.S. Large-cap Growth exposure, doesn't mean the stock market is in a correction.

Stocks can do very well while Tech and Growth severely underperform.

May I remind you that Tech was the leader early in the recovery back in 2002-2003. And then handed over the baton to everyone else:

Reversion BEYOND The Mean Business

March 6, 2021

It was John Roque who taught me this so many years ago. At least a decade if I had to guess.

We're NOT in a reversion to the mean business. This is a reversion BEYOND the mean business.

In other words, assets don't just get back to what is "average". They tend to overshoot. And that's the norm, not the exception.

This mean reversion we've seen in energy could be just that, a reversion back to the average. But if I've learned anything over the years, these things tend to overshoot.

We've been very vocal about this Value rotation, of course. But coming into the weekend, the big question I pose to myself, my team, and the market for that matter, is this:

...

Bubbles are popping. You hear it?

March 6, 2021

There's nothing like a good bubble popping to throw a wrench in everyone's plans.

The passive investor bubble popped. They're getting smoked and I think it only gets exponentially worse for them moving forward.

The U.S. home country bias is a bad one too. That one looks like it popped and about to get a whole lot worse for people who think the United States and The World are the same thing.

Bonds going up for 40 years? That's normal right? It's too early to call a generational turn. We can't make that call until 10s are holding above 3%. But it sure looks like that was it.

Meanwhile, the "Lack of Commodity Exposure" bubble is very apparent. I got in this business back in the day and was taught that there were 3 asset classes:...

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Commodities Weekly (03-05-2021)

March 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

When reviewing our chartbook this week, one major theme that stood out is the relentless bid we continue to see in Crude Oil.

Most risk-on commodities have consolidated or pulled back recently as the dollar has rebounded back to its highest level in over three months.

But, not oil...

Crude has completely ignored this action from the US Dollar and tacked on an additional 12% gain since DXY bottomed about two weeks ago.

Ever since trading at negative prices last spring, Crude has been on an absolute tear.

Price just broke above its key prior highs and closed the week at its highest level since 2018. As long as Crude is above this key former resistance around 65 the bias is higher and we're targeting the 2018 highs just above 75 over the near-term.

If and when price takes this level out, we think Crude Oil heads back toward 100.

That's right. The next stop after 75 would be the 2011-2014 highs in the low...

[Video] Yahoo Finance: Gross Dirty Energy Stocks

March 5, 2021

This morning I popped on to Yahoo Finance to chat with Jared Blikre about this rotation out of Growth stocks and into Value. It's going to be hard for people to wrap their heads around buying old dirty energy companies and the banks that they hate so much.

You can't save the world through your portfolio. It was fun watching people try.

That's over, but still hilarious when looking back on it.

Anyway, here's what we're watching:

Diving Into The DXY Index

March 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley.

The US Dollar is one of the most important pieces of the intermarket puzzle.

It affects all the major asset classes, and a rising dollar could impact the current market environment by creating a headwind for stocks and suppressing commodity-centric and cyclical areas of the market.

This could put pressure on our current market thesis as US Dollar strength has the potential to put a damper on the recent rally in risk assets.

In this post, we'll take a look at what's going on underneath the surface in the US Dollar Index by running through some of it's largest components.

We'll then weigh the evidence in front of us in an effort to determine a directional bias for King Dollar.