I'm in Vancouver for a few days. While I'm here, I need to meet with Gold Bugs and ski Whistler. That's what you do around here right? I'm good with both.
It's hard to have a serious conversation with the true yellow metal cult followers. These clowns are bullish at all times and have been expecting Gold to make a huge move every day since their last big move that ended in 2011. "This is it", I've been hearing for years. But Nope. Not only have they not made any money, but the opportunity cost (what else could they have done with that cash) is through the roof. It's been painful to watch them.
For our purposes, open minded investors, in other words, we don't care if Gold doubles or goes to zero. We could not care less. Our jobs aren't dependent on them. Our "investment strategy" is not tied to rising prices for precious metals and since we don't have "a narrative", we don't need to make things up to justify our existence.
We want to be buying things that are going up and selling things going down. It may sound oversimplified, but that's just the truth. Securities trend. There is a much higher likelihood for a trend to continue than for...
We've all heard about Japanese Candlesticks, but how can they help us? While line charts and bar charts each have their roles in our process, Candlesticks really tell the best story of them all. I've seen many different ways in which these tools are used, so in this short video I explain how we incorporate candlesticks in our every day analysis.
John Roque is a Technical Analyst who I've looked up to since early in my career. From the bottom of my heart, it was guys like him who inspired me to analyze the behavior of markets and do it in a way that is unique to me. I've always enjoyed his comparisons between markets and sports. While on the sell side, John was consistently ranked among the top analysts before joining the buy side, including Soros Fund Management. In this conversation, we discuss everything from Ted Williams to Corn Futures. He gives us his thoughts on Gold, Crude Oil, Interest Rates and the combined market-caps of Financials & Technology sectors. This was a real honor for me to get to interview one of my favorite...
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.
The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.
The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
For the last few weeks I've been writing in our notes to Institutional clients and internally to our team about the slow rotation into Cyber, and last week we saw that trend accelerate to the upside.
I was down in San Francisco Friday afternoon shopping for a tuxedo for my wedding in a few months. Whenever I'm in the city I like to get Chinese food and swing by the tv networks and say hi. Friday I got to do both.
At Allstarcharts we incorporate what we call a, "Top/Down Approach". To us, this means we start with the broader picture and analyze all of the Indexes around the world. Only then do we dive into our own country or the country in question. This is where we try and identify the trends in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and many others. Next we break it down to the sector and industry level like Healthcare, Banks or Technology. Finally when the relative strength and momentum line up in a particular group of stocks, that's when we try and find the best risk vs reward opportunities available to express a given theme.
For me, it's not just the S&P500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is a market of stocks and I think recognizing what stocks themselves are doing is just as important as identifying the trends of the major indexes. By recognizing the behavior of some of the biggest components in the market, we can approach it from a more informed position.
There are 3 stocks in particular that stood out in my Monthly Chart review this week. I always say it, this exercise which I only perform 12 times per year at the end of each month, is the most valuable part of my entire process. There is no question. It forces us to take a step back and identify the primary trends.
As I was updating our Monthly Chartbook today for members, one theme that stuck out clear as day is that there are really two separate markets in Indian Stocks right now.
Tuesday I posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let me know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing. Most of you agreed with me it looked like a structural breakdown that we should be selling as long as prices are below support.
So today I want to reveal the full chart and share why I feel it's relevant.