Huge week for consumer news. Target and Deckers tanked, Urban Outfitters soared and Williams-Sonoma managed to get out of a tricky earnings report more or less unscathed.
But one of the bigger stories, and biggest moves, happened in a name from the past for reasons no one is really discussing.
Peloton started the week strong in both calls and price action. Suddenly on Thursday morning, in an otherwise bland tape shares started popping, ramping 10% apparently out of nowhere but, as it turns out for pretty good reasons. Trump's Biggest Beautiful Bill didn't just crush solar stocks. It also revised some key terms applying to health savings accounts (HSA). Specifically, the bill expanded the amount and ways money put into an HSA can be used without incurring a 20% penalty.
Among the uses now approved with a pre-existing medical condition? Buying a Peloton.
In effect, customers can now potentially buy almost anything from Peloton's suite of Treads, Bikes, and Rowers with what amounts to pre-tax dollars. Depending on your tax bracket, that can take quite a cut out of the price of a premium bike (a bike that happens to be perfect for HSA purposes since it...
Peloton shares are down pre-market despite the company doing just about anything analysts could have asked from it.
Churn hit 1.2% despite a massive drop in marketing spend. As mentioned in the preview yesterday, if Peloton can retain the lucrative connected fitness subscribers (a decent proxy for customer satisfaction) and maintain disciplined spending you suddenly have a nice little cash flowing company with almost no built-in growth expectations.
A year ago then CEO Barry McCarthy resigned with the turnaround admittedly unfinished. Barry was smart and well-meaning but he was still clinging to the idea of Peloton has a growth company. A reset was needed and that's what Peloton has gotten.
Debt is down huge over the last year, cash flow has been positive 5 quarters in a row and Peloton is finally hinting at getting out of the stores which have been driving me quietly insane for years.
The call is starting but I wanted to get a note out. Barring something very bad from the company on the call Peloton is being punished for a quarter which is, at worst, an A- (Yes, Peloton is graded much easier than, say, Amazon).