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[Chart Of The Week] Is It Time For Gold Bugs To Profit?

February 27, 2019

If there is any group out there that is feeling the frustration, it's the gold bug community. Gold is at the same price today that it was a year ago, 5 years ago and 8 years ago. During that time frame, the S&P500 has more than doubled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more that 14,000 points, again more than doubling during this period.

Even U.S. Treasury Bonds made money as interest rates collapsed. The bond ETF $TLT was up over 60% before retracing some of that over the past couple of years. But still, up substantially and clearly outperforming precious metals.

You could have literally been in anything other than these commodities and made money. But from epic frustration comes secular periods for profit. I think this is what we have here:

Broadening Upside Participation In Tech Stocks

February 26, 2019

The noisemakers love to talk to you about something they like to call FANG, or FAANG or FAAMG. I think they change it each time, depending on which narrative their trying to pass along to the unaware. They're here to make noise, we're only here to make money. See the difference?

What you will hear every day, if you choose to subject yourself to their crap, is that Google and Amazon are only up 6% this year. What you won't hear is that the Equally-weighted Technology Index just broke out to new all-time highs relative to the traditional Market Cap-Weighted Technology Index. 

Video: Developments Around The World

February 22, 2019

Every month I host a conference call for Premium Members of Allstarcharts. By now I think you've noticed that we're really increasing the content on our YouTube Channel, so I thought it would add some value to include some of the highlights from this month's call.

It's an hour long video call and about 150 charts, but here are a few things that stood out this month:

  • A weakening US Dollar has been a positive catalyst for Stocks
  • Freeport McMoRan is a good example of the types of stocks benefiting from Dollar Weakness, on both a relative and absolute basis
  • London FTSE100 breaking out of a multi-decade base makes it hard to be bearish stocks from any sort of intermediate-term perspective
  • Our "Dow Fab 5" is breaking out to All-time highs
  • Crude Oil is beginning its next leg higher, which makes sense with stock prices rising as well

Here are the highlights:

Advance-Decline Line Hits New All-time Highs!

February 20, 2019

When it comes to market breadth, the Advance-Decline line is definitely one of our go-to's. This indicator calculates the net advancers. In other words, the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. This cumulative measure goes up and down over time, similar to the market indexes themselves.

Something to keep in mind is the fact that we use the Common Stocks Only A-D Line because there are other vehicles that trade on the NYSE, like closed-end funds for example. If we're analyzing the stock market, let's stick to just stocks in our indicators.

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[Premium] US Breadth Update

February 19, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

As part of my preparation for my Chart Summit presentation on market breadth, I'm looking at a lot of charts this week. In this post I'll share a bunch of them to provide some perspective on where US markets currently sit from a participation perspective.

Japan Breaks To New Relative Lows

February 14, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday we posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let us know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing?

As we expected there weren't any bearish responses, instead most of you were buyers at current levels or on a pullback. We think the evidence is clearly pointing in that direction too, which is why we put the question out there in the first place. What, if anything could we be missing?

Now that we're all on the same side of the boat, let's get into the chart and why we feel it's relevant.

[Chart of the Week] Emerging Markets Diverged Positively

February 12, 2019

The latest Chart of the Week is actually 4 charts! Today we're looking at Emerging Markets and comparing them to the S&P500. When money managers are bullish and positioning themselves for higher stock prices, they tend to invest in more speculative, higher beta names. When PMs are positioning themselves for lower stock prices, EM gets killed, particularly relative to developed markets.

These 4 charts represent divergences between Emerging markets and the S&P500 over the past couple of decades. When the S&P500 is making lower lows but Emerging Markets are simultaneously making higher lows, it's been evidence of risk appetite for stocks and markets have continued to rally for years after the divergence.

The question: Is this time different?

Video: What Market Environment Are We In?

February 11, 2019

When it comes to strategies, I've noticed that some investors try to force their approach on to the market, even if we're not in the type of environment where that strategy works. The first thing we want to do is identify what type of environment we're in, so that we can then create strategies to try and profit from it. To think we can build a system for a future environment that doesn't exist yet is foolish.

Here is the type of market I think we're in:

Relative Strength & Momentum in Healthcare

February 11, 2019

When it comes to buying stocks, I'm a bigger fan of buying things that are already working rather than getting cute and trying to be the first one in hoping others agree with me quickly. Rarely does bottom fishing work out in our favor. The probabilities are against us from the start.

One way to see if something is already "working" is to recognize how it is behaving compared to its peers. In the case of U.S. Stocks, how are specific groups doing compared to the rest of the market? I like to think of it like holding a basketball in a pool under water. You can feel the pressure, similar to overall selling pressure in stocks. Once you let go, the ball explodes out of the water and into the air. Stocks behave the same way once the overwhelming selling is complete.