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Podcast Season 2 – Ep 2 - Todd Sohn, Technical Analyst at Strategas

August 6, 2018

Sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily - Todd Sohn does amazing work on a daily basis. We're constantly communicating and sharing ideas with one another. I can tell you for a fact, there are few people in this world who look through as many charts as Todd. Our process is similar so I have really been looking forward to this conversation. We covered a lot of topics in this episode including U.S. Stocks and the sector rotation we've been seeing underneath the surface. Sentiment is a big part of their work over at Strategas and I find it really interesting how he incorporates analyst ratings to find ideas in the market. This is a good one!

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Are Agribusiness Stocks On The MOO-ve?

August 6, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Sector rotation in this market continues and the Agribusiness and Chemical Industries within the Materials Sector look to be heating up. While their performance on a relative basis is lackluster, on an absolute basis there are several setups offering reward/risk scenarios skewed in our favor.

First let's take a structural look at the Agribusiness ETF $MOO, which contains exposure to Chemical stocks as there is no ETF dedicated to that industry. Prices got back to their '08 highs earlier in the year and have been consolidating since. A breakout above 66 would signal the beginning of a new long-term uptrend that targets 94.25.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

From a tactical perspective prices are back toward the top of an ascending triangle continuation pattern. If prices can break above 64.70 we'll likely see a move up toward the 161.8% extension of the '15-'16 decline near 68.75.

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China Under-Performance and The US Equity Market

August 4, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Every so often we hear the narrative that under-performance from China's stock market is a canary in the coal mine for US Equities, and the recent tariff tantrums have brought this discussion front and center. Today I want to look at this relationship to see if it has any merit or if it's just a smart sounding soundbite that you can use around the office water cooler.

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Fresh Breakouts In This Leading Sector

August 3, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

We've been extremely vocal about the Medical Devices space on the blog, and rightfully so, with the sector continuing its long-term trend of out-performance throughout 2018. The index has 57 components, but because the top 10 stocks make up roughly 60% of the index, opportunities in the smaller components tend to be overlooked by many market participants. In this post I want to look at all of its components and highlight names where our risk is well-defined and the reward/risk is still skewed in our favor.

Let's start off with the sector ETF $IHI on an absolute basis for context. Prices are just off all-time highs after successfully retesting their breakout area near 203.50. As long as prices are above that level, short and intermediate-term momentum remains intact and our next upside objective is up near 248-249.50.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

On a relative basis, the sector continues to digest its strong year-to-date gains and work off a bearish momentum divergence by...

[India Chart of The Week] Sun Pharma A Leading Indicator?

August 3, 2018

Most Nifty Indexes' largest components have a very large weighting on their performance, and Nifty Pharma is no exception. Sun Pharmaceuticals represents roughly a quarter of the index, so today we're going to look at it's role as a potential leading indicator for the rest of the sector.

Below is a daily line chart of the Nifty Pharma Index overlayed with Sun Pharmaceuticals. What we see from this relationship is that Sun Pharma generally leads the index, so when it's showing relative strength a move higher is likely, and when it's showing relative weakness then a move lower is likely. The two rarely separate from each other for long.

Why this is relevant to us now is because in May when the index undercut its August 2017 lows, Sun Pharmaceuticals actually held those lows and has been showing relative strength ever since. With history as our guide, this suggests that we may want to be looking for a move to the upside in both Sun Pharmaceuticals and the sector as a whole.

For some additional context, here is a daily chart of Sun...

[Free Chart of The Week] The Equity Interest Rate Barometer

August 2, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Interest rates are on the move, with the Ten-Year Treasury Yield breaking 3% once again after working off its failed breakout attempt from May. One relationship that's highly correlated with the Ten-Year Yield is Regional Banks vs REITS. We've written about this relationship in 2016 and 2017, but it's at an important inflection point so today's chart is going to revisit it.

Podcast Season 2 - Ep 1 - Mark Dow of Behavioral Macro

August 1, 2018

This conversation with Mark Dow kicks off Season 2 of the All Star Charts Interviews sponsored by Investor's Business Daily. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s and later was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this Episode, we talk about the benefits of Technical Analysis throughout both process and execution, where we are in the...

July Monthly Chart Updates

August 1, 2018

It's the end of the month, which means we've got new monthly charts. Last month we discussed the strength in large-cap Financial Services, Consumer Goods, IT, and in certain areas of Pharma, while the weakest areas were mid and small-cap Infrastructure, Metals, Commodities, Realty, Media, and Autos. This post is going to discuss any significant changes from last month, but members can find the rest of the updated charts in the Chartbook.

The strength in large-caps continues, as shown by the Nifty 50 making a new all-time closing high. This month's candle opened at the lows and closed at the highs, signaling a continuation of its uptrend after 6 months of consolidation. If prices are above 11,165 we want to be long as our next price objective us up near 15,260.

The Nifty 100 closed at new all-time highs, opening at the lows and closing at its highs. If prices are above 11,200, our price objective remains 12,640.

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India Mid and Small-Cap Coverage

July 31, 2018

Based on the great feedback we receive every day, we know a lot of Allstarcharts India readers have an interest in the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market. Typically we cover those areas in the Monthly Conference Call, followed by a deep dive (or two) on anything that we didn't have time to discuss. Additionally, we publish shorter posts throughout the month highlighting opportunities as they emerge.

While a good start, we wanted to create something to provide more regular coverage of the space, so we've added nearly 100 mid and small-cap stocks to the Chartbook feature of our site. To narrow this universe down to a manageable size, these lists include those stocks that are available to short via futures and/or options, so that we can provide consistent analysis on both sides of the trade as we do in the other Chartbooks.

Acknowledging Potential Caution Flags

July 30, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

When I thought of the title for this post I was hoping to make a Nascar analogy, but quickly realized I don't know anything about Nascar or racing. With that aside, what's clear from our recent blog posts is that we remain bullish on US Equities but open-minded to the new data we're getting each day. As I was going through my sector chartbook this weekend I identified a few momentum divergences that have emerged, as well as some bullish data points that potentially offset them, so this post will quickly go through my findings and key takeaways.