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Top 10 Charts Of The Week

June 10, 2020

From the desks of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

In this post, we're going to share 10 of the most important charts we're looking at right now. Some are merely for observational purposes or to highlight some of the broader trends at play in the markets while others are trade ideas in some of our favorite names and areas.

Let's dive right in. Here they are.

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Week In Review (06-05-2020)

June 7, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

For the week ended Friday, June 5, 2020:

Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

This was a big week for market bulls as a myriad of consolidations resolved to the upside while the powerhouse Nasdaq 100 $QQQ finally became the first major index to reclaim its all-time highs. The only assets to post negative returns this week were the usual "safe-havens" such as Treasuries, Yen, and Precious Metals. Everything else was green. How's that for improving risk-appetite?

In this post, we'll highlight that this broadening participation and flight towards risk-assets is more than just a one-week phenomenon. We've seen this type...

[Chart Of The Week] Yesterday's Losers Are Today's Winners

June 5, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

In recent weeks, we've witnessed a powerful rotation as many of the secular laggards have assumed short-term leadership positions.

In today's post, we're going to take a stab at using a new visualization tool in order to illustrate this recent changing of the guard.

This scatter plot is comparing the maximum drawdown from 52-week highs to the March lows (Y-Axis) with the short-term performance off of the May 13th low, among all of the 150+ Dow Jones Industry Indexes. The plot-sizes are based on how large the current drawdown is... In other words, the bigger the dot, the bigger the drop.

Been Around The World & We're Resolving Higher

June 4, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Thanks to everyone for participating in this week's Mystery Chart. It was a bit of a layup, as most of you were bullish, recognizing the powerful failed breakdown and follow-through back above critical former support.

We would agree and like this chart for a counter-trend move right now as well. But the reason we chose it was really for informational purposes, as we are seeing continuation patterns resolve higher all over the globe right now.

The more of these patterns that resolve to the upside, the stronger the weight of the evidence builds in favor of other consolidations working themselves out higher as well. We are seeing this across all areas of Domestic and International Equity Markets, many of which we'll highlight in this post.

Mystery Chart (06-03-2020)

June 3, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

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Week In Review (05-29-2020)

May 31, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

For the week ended Friday, May 29, 2020:

Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

This was a special week as Friday marked the end of May which means fresh monthly candlestick data. Analyzing these long-term monthly charts every several weeks is a great exercise as it forces us to take a step back and identify the structural trends that are in place.

As such, this week’s theme is the continued outperformance over both the short and long-term from those areas sporting the strongest primary uptrends.

Tech $XLK is by far the best performing sector over the trailing year. It is also the 2nd best over the past month and quarter, behind Communications $XLC and Health Care $XLV, respectively. Not surprisingly, these same sectors are also the next best performers over the trailing year.

Click table to enlarge view....

Genomics Are The Tech in Biotech

May 29, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We write a lot about focusing on the secular leaders in each sector and industry. Whether it's online retail, medical devices, or more niche areas like data-centers or mobile payments, they tend to share a common thread of innovation and technology.

Biotech fits this theme and has become an emerging leader, making new all-time highs for the first time in almost five years. It's been one of the top-performing subsectors off the lows and one of the first to reclaim its year-to-date highs.

In this post, we're going to drill into the space and highlight one of its strongest areas... Genomics.

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[Chart Of The Week] KWEB's Bearish To Bullish Reversal Continues

May 28, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Sentiment has not been good for Chinese Equities with a handful of recent sanctions adding to the general uncertainty around China-US relations. For the most part, we're seeing this reflected in price as the Shanghai Composite and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) are trading at multi-month lows relative to the S&P 500.

Interestingly enough, the area being hit hardest with negative headlines is one of the few bright spots in China's market right now... Technology and Internet stocks.

In this post, we take a look at the improving relative strength from this group and offer trade ideas in some of its leading stocks.

Here is the ratio chart of the Kraneweb Chinese Internet ETF (KWEB) vs the S&P 500 (SPY) which we've been writing about since November.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Price resolved...

Mystery Chart (05-26-2020)

May 26, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

All Star Charts Premium

Week In Review (05-22-2020)

May 25, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

For the week ended Friday, May 22, 2020:

Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

This week’s main theme is risk-on action from beaten-down areas which we'll highlight in our US Index and Factor ETF tables, below.

We're putting a lot of emphasis on risk-appetite measures right now in order to provide insight into how the recent rangebound activity in Equity and Bond markets is likely to resolve itself.

The most basic way to assess risk-tolerance is to compare the performance of risk-on vs risk-off assets. As such, this post will focus on how the offensive vs defensive areas of various markets are acting right now.

Click table to enlarge view.

This week we saw some more mean-reversion in the laggards in our US Index ETF table. The most risk-on areas such as Transports (DJT) and the Mid/Small/Micro-Cap segments have been long-term underperformers, yet...

Why I'm DART-ing Away From Retail Trading Data

May 23, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Lots of charts are being shared showing the exponential growth in trading activity, new accounts, and anything else that might paint a story of euphoria at retail and discount brokerages since the pandemic broke out.

Here is some personal background only to provide context for what I’m about to discuss.

I live on an island. It is tiny, about 4 square miles. In fact, I live on an obscure island just above Key West which is technically much smaller than that. As a “Census Designated Place” it’s really just a collection of roads and canals, a village of about 4,400 people.

It’s nice, but it comes at the cost of an economy that relies almost entirely on Tourism. The people who live here are more or less fishermen or workers at the many hotels, bars, and restaurants in what’s generally a booming downtown area. Since shutting down our borders months ago, the local unemployment rate has spiked to an estimated 50%.

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Betting Our Chips On The Strongest Semiconductor Stocks

May 21, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Yesterday, we wrote about the divergence in both structural and tactical trends between Dow Transports and Semiconductors. The bottom line is that Dow Transports (DJT), which is the traditional "Dow Theory" average, has been getting smoked relative to the "New Dow Theory" average, the Semiconductor Index (SOX).

While we don't know whether or not this can persist indefinitely or if these divergences will soon resolve themselves, we do know that Semiconductors remain one of the secular leaders and are thus an area we want to continue to bet on from the long side.

In this post, we'll outline some Trade Ideas in our favorite Semiconductor names.

Something all of these setups have in common is that they are exhibiting impressive relative strength vs the broader market. They also all resolved to fresh highs recently, which gives us a well-defined risk management level to trade against.

We have included...