Alfonso’s Daily Note Articles

This afternoon on Chart Request Live, my friend Patrick and I reviewed some of the standout tickers from the chat.

One group of stocks that really stood out was Digital Payments.

These stocks are on fire, offering favorable setups left and right these days, to the point I would be ashamed not to share some with you.

Before diving into some individual names, here's the Amplify Digital Payments ETF $IPAY:

IPAY just completed a textbook rounding bottom formation and is embarking on a new uptrend.

Aside from bellwethers like PayPal or Block $SQ (which I wrote about last week), there are three stocks that catch my attention within this ETF.

Yesterday I talked about some areas that are struggling to hold onto their post-election gains. The list has grown following today's selloff.

One group that’s been unfazed by this week’s volatility is financials.

Today, let’s flip the script and focus on an industry showing serious resilience.

Banks have been one of the best-performing groups over the past week, positioning themselves as leaders in the current environment.

The S&P Banks ETF $KBE is on the verge of completing a textbook reversal pattern relative to the S&P 500.

The ratio is piercing through the upper ends of this base as we speak.

The 200-day moving average has been flat all year but is curling up, suggesting that the trend could be at the early stages of reversing.

A week after the election, stocks are now digesting some of their impressive gains. 

Some groups like banks, software, Ark funds, and even energy are holding up the best, while others struggle to hold onto those gains and are now giving it all back.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF $XME is a great example of this second group that is losing steam.

XME tried to break out from a multi-year base the morning after the election, but was immediately rejected, and has since fallen back into its old...

Eric Balchunas was on the Morning Show today.

I always love to hear his thoughts as he’s one of the best in business when it comes to ETFs.

He really made a lot of good points today. You can watch the replay here.

One thing that stood out to me was what he said about the new iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT.

Eric said that the success in the first year of IBIT is hard to find a sports analogy for. It’s even better than Michael Jordan'...

Bitcoin is surging toward $90,000.

Memecoins are ripping across the board. 

DOGE is up over 100% since the election.

BTC miners are squeezing higher.

Everyone is talking about shitcoins I’ve never heard of.

NFTs are back.

It’s all working in crypto land right now. As it turns out, the ultimate election trade was in digital assets, and not the traditional market.

The stock market is embarking on a fresh leg higher, and it’s happening with the broadest level of participation we’ve seen this cycle.

Small caps are finally...

Crypto stands on the cusp of a major bull run, and the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 feels more real by the day.

When it comes to the second in command, Ethereum seems ready to join the party.

After months of carving out a short-term reversal base, ETH is flirting with a critical polarity level of around $2,850.

If and when we get a decisive breakout about this area, then the path of least resistance will be higher, with a clear shot toward its year-to-date highs near $4,000.

That would ultimately confirm Bitcoin's breakout,...

With the election behind us, markets seem ready for a year-end rally.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 Index led the way, climbing 6% as it registered its best daily performance since 2020.

As you can see, IJR jumped above its prior cycle highs from 2021, appearing, at least for now, to complete a massive base.

I’m looking for some follow-through in the days and weeks ahead to confirm this breakout. 

If we get it, this could be a breakaway gap for the history books. Based on the way it started today, odds favor it being a valid resolution.

If it holds, I think we’re likely to see a rotation into the...

Today is Election Day in the U.S., and while the spotlight is on the political arena, this is the perfect time to ignore the noise and focus on what really matters. 

When it comes to seasonality, some of the best signals that we get are when the market does not follow the historical pattern or seasonal trend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500's average monthly returns during election years.

As you can see, we’re leaving the September and October window, which are the two worst months, and entering...

Precious metals have been on an absolute tear this year.

Gold is stair-stepping to new all-time highs, and silver recently shattered through resistance to levels we haven't seen in...

Consumer Discretionary stocks are a reliable gauge of risk appetite and market health.

Consider these as automobiles, retail, and homebuilding—industries that offer products and services consumers purchase with their discretionary income.

When investors favor these stocks, it indicates a higher level of risk-seeking behavior.

One simple way to assess them is by comparing their performance to the broader market.

The chart below illustrates Large Cap Consumer Discretionary Sector relative to the S&P 500, potentially forming a major 10-year top.

Notice how this ratio has been holding near its lower bounds for quite some time.

If you believe the bull market still has legs, the expectation would be for discretionary stocks to start outperforming.

On the other hand, if you bet this top completes, you expect risk assets to come under pressure.

So, what do you think?

I would love to hear your thoughts on this!

Alfonso

Bitcoin is flirting with a historic breakout, sitting just a few bucks shy of fresh all-time highs.

Everywhere I look, I’m seeing the perfect setup for a new leg higher from crypto.

Risk appetite is heating up across the board, and the strongest tokens are leaving the station. 

We have a wide-variety of vehicles to choose from to play this bullish thesis.

Whether you look at Bitcoin, Dogecoin, or the crypto miners, they are all offering asymmetrical risk vs reward opportunities.

And if we're talking about catch-up trades, Marathon Digital Holdings $MARA is the one to watch.

Just look how clean this chart is.