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The Strazza Letter

Where Is It Coming From?

February 13, 2025

The bid for Chinese equities has been relentless all year long.

Alibaba is up about 50% over the trailing month.

BYD Co is up about 30% in February alone.

Xiaomi Corp is making new all-time highs.

Even the iShares China Large Cap Index has rallied 20% off its January lows.

You get the point. China is red hot. 

With price action like this, you might start to wonder, “where is all the money coming from!?”

And the answer is probably a lot of places. Who knows.

But one area that has definitely become a source of funds for new China bulls… is India. 

 

This is a ratio chart of Chinese stocks vs Indian stocks, and it is flashing a textbook trend reversal in favor of China.

The relationship had been skewed toward India in a big way up until last year. In fact, Indian stocks have been outperforming China aggressively for almost a decade now. This all began back in 2016, so...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Uber of the Skies

February 13, 2025

Have you heard about these electric helicopter stocks?

They’re being called the "Uber of the skies," racing to launch air taxis in major cities sooner than most people expect.

Imagine skipping traffic as an air shuttle arrives to take you straight to the airport.

It sounds almost too good to be true.

But the reality is that there's some serious juice in these names.

One in particular that is setting up nicely is Archer Aviation $ACHR.

Just look at this chart.

 

After a strong run last year, it's been consolidating in a tight range, digesting gains before its next move.

This contraction in volatility often precedes wild moves, in either direction.

With a 16% short interest, the setup looks even better for the bulls to squeeze the bears.

...
Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/13/25

February 13, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling GLD to April options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The Market is Bullish HIV: Here's The Stock That's Dominating 📊

February 13, 2025

CVS Health $CVS just had its best earnings reaction ever. It was fantastic.

The company issued a guidance for 2025 that was much better than expected. They plan to make between $5.75 and $6 of earnings per share this year.

David Joyner, the recently appointed CEO, has also done a fabulous job stabilizing Aetna's performance. This is what the market wants.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, CVS Health had the best earnings reaction and reaction score during Wednesday's trading session.

On the downside, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies had the worst earnings reaction and reaction score.

Now, let's dig into the data 👇

CVS had its best earnings reaction ever: 

CVS Health was on the verge of resolving a multi-decade Kardashian topping pattern. This earnings reaction happened exactly when the bulls needed to step up and buy.

On a relative basis, the stock has resolved a distribution pattern that goes back to the 20th century versus the broader market. This suggests a...

Hot Corner Insider

Chief Commercial Officer Phil Guido Is Buying AMD Shares

February 13, 2025

Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Phil Guido just dropped $1 million on 4,645 shares of Advanced Micro Devices $AMD.

Guido is the one driving AMD's global commercial strategy. He's got a front-row seat to the company's growth prospects, so if he's buying, that's worth noting.

But what really stands out is the wave of CEO buying across the board.

The heads of Amcor $AMCR, Magnera $MAGN, Enanta Pharma $ENTA, and Kennametal $KMT all stepped in to buy their own stock.

When you see a bunch of CEOs putting their money where their mouth is, you pay attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 12, 2025:

 

Meanwhile, Rep. Ro Khanna was busy, reporting multiple buys across major names like Visa $V, JPMorgan $JPM, Mondelez $MDLZ, Qualcomm $QCOM, Cisco $CSCO, and PepsiCo $PEP, each purchase between $15,000 and $50,000.

...

All Star Charts Crypto

📊 Buying People's Fear

February 13, 2025

The altcoin space just got obliterated.

Traders have been liquidated en masse, and bullish positioning has been wiped clean. By definition, pessimism now outweighs optimism.

But if you've been following along, you know I spent months neutral on crypto. After this selloff, I’ve flipped bullish.

Zoom out. This is a textbook flush at a key demand zone.

While others get caught in the noise, I’m simplifying—weekly line chart, nothing fancy. The setups I’ve been waiting for in AI coins are here.

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Thursday, February 13, 2025

February 13, 2025

Today's number is... 43

Global participation is expanding, with the majority of the 43 global ETFs I track are now above their shorter-term moving averages.

Here’s the table:

 

Let's break down what the table shows:

Each row in the table represents a developed or emerging market country ETF. The columns indicate the percentage by which each country is above or below its key moving averages, starting with the 10-day moving average and progressing up to the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: The improvement seen over the past few weeks is not just limited to the US. The percentage of global markets moving back above key short-term averages has been increasing throughout 2025, with the leadership primarily coming from the 22 developed markets. While these shorter-term trends have been strengthening beneath the surface, the shift at the index level has only recently begun.

These kinds of improvements in market breadth could establish a strong foundation for a sustained global rally. However, for me to believe that this recent run-up has lasting potential, I need to see the leadership...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Is Inflation Making a Comeback?

February 12, 2025

When it comes to inflation expectations, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities vs the US Treasury Bonds ratio is one of the best ways to measure it.

When investors anticipate rising prices for goods, they hedge by favoring TIPS over traditional bonds.

The TIP/IEF ratio is ripping to its highest level in almost three years.

It’s no coincidence that the Bloomberg Commodity Index $DJP looks just like it.

 

If we’re heading into another inflationary period, then commodities, energy, metals-related equities, natural resources, and international markets should be top of mind.

There are many ways to take advantage of this trend, and options are one of them.

We’ve been on it through Breakout Multiplier for a while now. Steve’s all over this move, and so am I.

...

The Strazza Letter

Animal Spirits in Europe

February 12, 2025

All the Euro STOXX Indexes are at new all-time highs.

The DAX is at new all-time highs.

Germany is about to break out of a massive base in USD terms.

Spain and Greece are completing multi-decade bases.

European equities are on absolute fire right now and participation is broad.

Meanwhile, they are still talking about the recession in the Eurozone.

It’s a perfect setup. In fact, the bull thesis here is a lot like China in a sense that many of these countries check all three boxes… sentiment, technicals, and valuation.

Some of these European countries like Poland and Austria are even cheaper than China with CAPE ratios around 10x. 

They also come with plenty of beta. For example, the MSCI Poland ETF EPOL is already up about 150% off its 2022 cycle low.

This kind of action says a lot about risk appetite, too. This is true for some areas of Europe more than others.

...
All Star Options

[Options Premium] Consulting With the Consultants

February 12, 2025

I've consulted with the consultants, who agree that we should buy 52-week highs that would put us in spitting distance of all-time highs.

And so I shall do just that.

Today's name has somewhat elevated implied volatility, and it's a high-priced stock, so I'll be playing it with a call spread to keep my exposure in check and leverage the out-of-the-money call premiums in my favor.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/12/25

February 12, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to ITB position.
  3. Closed ARKK at profit target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (02-12-2025)

February 12, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

This Beverage Company Is Nearly 150 Years Old: It's Still Growing Like A Weed 📊

February 12, 2025

Coca-Cola was founded in 1886 in Atlanta, Georgia, by a pharmacist named Dr. John Stith Pemberton.

Over the nearly 150 years of its existence, the brand has grown to be known and loved worldwide.

Despite its global saturation, the company is still growing like a weed.

In 2024, it grew revenues by 12% and increased its operating margin by 90 basis points to 24%.

The management team provided stronger-than-expected guidance for 2025 during Tuesday's conference call with investors and analysts. 

The market loved it and rewarded the stock with a higher stock price.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

DuPont de Nemours $DD beat its expectations and rallied nearly 7% with a reaction score of 5. They didn't just report a great quarter; the management team also provided better-than-expected guidance. 

In addition, it announced the acceleration of the intended spin-off of its electronics business, which is targeted for November 1st, 2025.

Ecolab $ECL beat its expectations and rallied over 6% with...