The US Dollar Index $DXY is sitting at the top end of the range it’s been stuck in for the past two years, and the stage is set for a move lower.
This has significant implications for a variety of asset classes, including precious metals, equities, and Bitcoin, all of which stand to benefit from a weaker dollar environment.
In a matter of days, the dollar ripped in a nearly vertical line toward the upper bounds of its range.
Today, the picture is very different than it was back in October.
With a tough seasonal period setting in, along with resistance overhead and a bearish momentum divergence, our tactical outlook for the dollar is lower from here.
A few weeks ago, the dollar briefly broke out of its...
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...
Today’s insider transactions feature a couple of power moves worth noting.
First up, Sardar Biglari, the founder, chairman, and CEO of Biglari Holdings Inc $BH, reported a significant insider buy of $1 million via a Form 4 filing.
Biglari is known for his hands-on leadership and calculated investments, making this a bold vote of confidence in his company’s outlook.
Biglari now owns about $26.5 million worth of class A common stock.
Meanwhile, over at retail giant Walmart Inc $WMT, director Robert Edward Moritz Jr. scooped up 5,446 shares worth nearly $500,000.
Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 29, 2024:
Over at OPKO Health $OPK, the chairman and CEO doubled down with a personal purchase of $305,376. Dr. Phillip Frost is a serial inside buyer, so we won’t make much of this specific purchase.
And it would be foolish to ignore it. So we're doing the opposite. We're leaning in and pressing our bets.
Look at the Small-cap Indexes both making new all-time highs. The S&P600 Small-cap Index and Russell2000 Small-cap Index are completing multi-year bases and just beginning their next leg higher:
Another major base being completed right now is in the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
We had seen the strength in Logistics stocks, Marine Shippers and even resiliency among Railroads and Truckers. It was really just the Airline stocks that needed to stop falling.
And that's precisely what happened.
Look at the new all-time highs in the Dow Transports:
Keep in mind that while we're continuing to see more and more of the most important indexes breaking out to new all-time highs, the usual suspects are also still doing their thing.
Look at the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both hitting new all-time highs, again.
All of this strength in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 is coming at a time where...
With so many stocks joining in on the bull market, it can be hard to keep track of leadership.
But one group that definitely stands out and deserves a mention is Uranium and Nuclear Energy.
These stocks were big leaders during the commodity bull run of 2020-2021, and they have been major leaders again in recent months.
But, it’s less about the recent relative strength, and more about the structural patterns at play.
Here’s the industry leader, Cameco $CCJ breaking out of a monster base:
After more than a decade of underperformance for the alternative energy stock, CCJ is breaking out to new all-time highs just as it looks to reverse trend versus the broader market.
The trend reversal shown in the lower pane suggests more leadership from CCJ in the future.
How can you not buy this 18-year base breakout?
And when benchmarked against its industry peers instead of the S&P 500, it’s clear CCJ is the premier vehicle in its space.
This chart shows it climbing steadily higher versus the Global X Uranium ETF...
My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast.
Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.
Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."
And I really believe that!
Let's talk about why.
Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:
The index peaked and rolled over in 2011 and has carved out a massive basing pattern in the years since then. If and when the bulls resolve this pattern, we want to be long.
On a relative basis, soft commodities are printing fresh 52-week highs versus the broader commodity complex. This is precisely what we're looking for in a leadership group, and we expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future.
Cocoa futures recently resolved a 45-year base and put the bears in a dirt nap, and we think coffee futures are up next:
As you can see, coffee is at its highest level since it peaked in 1977, following a face-ripping 600% rally in two years.
A close above 340 would mark the end of a nearly 50-year consolidation and the beginning of a new uptrend.