From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Will the Fed finally cut interest rates?

We can’t say for sure… 

All that matters is what the market thinks. And following Powell’s testimony this week, investors are increasing their September rate-cut bets.

Let’s review a few of our recent bond trades, as US treasuries could rip in the coming weeks.

Our entry point for T-bond futures was 117’27:

Price triggered a buy signal last month, but the breakout has been far from decisive.

If you haven’t taken a long position, you can move your risk level to the May 15 close, trading against  118’08.

Or, you can wait for buyers to take out 120’12 (the June 14 close).

Entry tactics aside, we’re targeting last December’s high of 125’30.  

The corresponding levels for the T-bond ETF $TLT have not changed:

We’re long...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IBB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

Mario Gabelli and GAMCO Investors are back on our list.

GAMCO and Gabelli’s other funds filed a 13D revealing an increase in ownership from 7.25% to 8.74% in Astec Industries $ASTE.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 10, 2024:

Orion Resource Partners filed a 13G for Skeena Resources Limited $SKE revealing an initial stake of 14.51%.

ASTE has been trading in a well-defined range for the past eight years. Price is currently pressing on the lower bounds. 

The long-term moving average has been trending lower for some time now, indicating that sellers are in complete control.

This one is a no-touch if it’s below 27. Even if it holds this shelf of former lows, there is a lot of work to do before a new uptrend can be underway.

Stay tuned. We'll be back on Friday with more insider activity.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that exhibit the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week via multiple reports.

But, we also highlight lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We publish this...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We want as many vehicles and options to express...

The All Star Charts analyst team continues to believe that the industrial sector will be one of the leading areas to lift the market higher as sector rotation works its magic to keep this bull market going.

And the chart of Caterpillar $CAT looks like a potential failed top in the making:

If we're right, $CAT could quickly recapture all-time highs north of $382 per share and then the sky's the limit from there.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to GDXJ position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Artisan Partners Limited Partnership.

The investment management firm revealed an increase in its ownership stake in Twist Bioscience Corporation $TWST from 6.40% to 10.40%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 9, 2024:

Director Lawrence Cheng announced the purchase of 4,140 shares of GameStop Corp $GME, worth $102,879 in total.

Cevian Capital filed a 13D for Smith & Nephew plc $SNN revealing an initial stake of 5.11%.

TWST has been in the base-building process for the past two years as buyers try to take control and force an upside resolution from this rounding bottom pattern.

Price is currently pressing against the upper bounds of this base.

We want to be patient and wait for a decisive breakout above 55 to confirm a valid reversal in the trend....

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended July 7, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

Have you heard that this bull market is only being driven by Large-cap Tech?

Well, what if Small-cap Tech broke out of this multi-year base to new all-time highs?

What then?

Would it still be just Large-cap Tech?

Here's what the index looks like and, by definition, it excludes any of the so called "Mag7" and any other Mega-cap stocks that are perhaps helping to drive other indexes.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are forecasting choppy market conditions and a significant correction for Q3.

News flash: The market has been messy for months. And we already experienced a stealth correction beneath the surface.

I’ll keep an open mind, but if commodity currencies start breaking out…

Forget about it!

Stocks have weathered the US dollar’s recent rally. 

Imagine how they’ll perform once the dollar rolls over, especially against risk-on currencies like the New Zealand dollar.

Check out the NSD/USD pair coiling within a symmetrical triangle after retesting its 2020 low:

I’m not a fan of symmetrical triangles, as I’ve found measuring risk with diagonal boundaries far less reliable than horizontal support/...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to QQQ position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management L.L.C.

The investment firm revealed an initial stake of 9.20% in bitcoin miner Hut 8 Mining Corp $HUT.

RA Capital Management LP also reported an original stake of 5.90% in Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc $RXRX in a 13G filing..

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 8, 2024:

Wellington Management Company revealed a new passive stake in TPG Inc $TPG of 10.16%

Wellington also reported an increase in its Customers Bancorp $CUBI position from 5.41% to 10.18%.

The relative strength from bitcoin miners has been off the charts, as they continue to trend higher in an otherwise tough tape for the broader crypto space.

Here’s Hut 8 Corp $HUT on the verge of completing a two-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

Crypto markets have continued their sell-off into last week, with Bitcoin losing the critical 60,000 support level and the total crypto market-cap briefly dipping below $2T for the first time since February.