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Hot Corner Insider

Director Robert Scully Reports a $1.5 Million KKR $KKR Buy

May 9, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies — cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 KKR $KKR – Director Robert Scully bought 13,250 shares, equivalent to $1.5 million.

This is the largest Form 4 of the day and a notable show of conviction.

📌 Caterpillar $CAT – Director David MacLennan disclosed a $120,000 buy, putting fresh skin in the game at this industrial bellwether.

CAT often acts as a leading indicator for the broader economy — and insider interest here could be telling.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 8, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Solaris Energy Infrastructure $SEI – Millennium Management just...

Energy’s Wake-Up Call? 🌞

May 9, 2025

Occidental Petroleum $OXY didn’t blow the doors off this quarter.

Results were mixed, with some revenue softness and a slight beat on EPS, but you wouldn’t know it from the tape.

Shares exploded higher, logging their best earnings-day reaction since 2011.

This kind of move stands out in a market that’s been punishing mixed results like this. 

It tells us one thing: positioning mattered more than the print. 

Investors were underweight, sentiment was washed out, and any whiff of stability sparked a violent unwind.

Energy’s been forgotten for months. But this might be the first sign that the tide is turning.

When a stock rips like this off mediocre numbers, it's not about what just happened...

It’s about what the market is starting to price in.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Corteva $CTVA had the best reaction score...

All Star Charts Premium

New‑School Nuclear Sets Up

May 9, 2025

Spec‑growth is alive and well, as more and more offensive names are taking center stage for the current rally.

We continue to find bullish themes in specific industry groups from cyber, to quantum computing, and space & exploration. 

Investors are reaching out on the risk spectrum, and we’re ready to ride these trends with them.

Nothing screams “risk-on” louder than small‑modular nukes feeding AI’s power appetite. 

I’ve been referring to this basket of stocks as the “new nuclears,” but they actually have some really cool science, not to mention- a secular trend, behind them.

Let’s dive in.

At the Index level, the Nuclear Energy ETF $NLR is shaping up and threatening to break out of a monster base. 

 ...
ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Bears Are Losing Their Grip

May 9, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

We’re here to make money.

That means we naturally focus on the strongest areas of the market. But there’s also valuable information—and opportunity—in watching the weakest.

When even the worst-performing groups can’t hold their breakdowns, it tells us market conditions might not be so bad after all.

Take the NexGen Economy ETF ($BLCN), for example.

 

It’s off to a rough start this year, down 22% YTD.

But here’s the kicker: it failed to hold its latest breakdown.

So what does it say when even the weakest thematic ETFs can’t break down?

Maybe the bears are losing their grip.

Altria (MO) what an amazing case study on Ps=0

May 8, 2025

Take a moment to study this post ... https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/01/parabolic-moves/  there is a LOT going on but, basically, using geometry that we learned in Elementary/Middle school you will see the EXACT top on MO after a parabolic run.  Now, after this amazing run, we have a 'near perfect' SELL pattern.  It's ALL about balance, form and proportion.  How do you balance an emotionally fueled parabolic rally?  A corresponding THUMP that neutralizes the positive bullish mania. It HAS to be that way folks ... yin/yang, day/night, male/female, etc. etc.  It does and will balance!  For now, after the parabolic move higher and then the corresponding thump to balance the emotions we are now staring at a 'near' perfect SELL PATTERN.  Got to take this one folks ...Bart

 
Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Next Magnificent 7

May 8, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

Everyone knows the Magnificent Seven — the giants that led the last few cycles and sit atop the market cap leaderboard.

They were the best investments of their time. 

One could easily argue they are the best stocks  of all time. 

But a new wave of leadership is emerging.

A fresh generation of growth companies are stepping up, poised to become the next global dominators.

These aren’t moonshot growth plays — they’re real businesses with solid revenue, scale, and strong momentum.

Call them the Successors, the Junior Mag 7 — whatever name sticks.

What matters is they have all the ingredients to lead...

The Strazza Letter

A Bull in Bangkok

May 8, 2025

I somehow found myself in Bangkok presenting to a room full of traders for a CMT event a few years ago.

I remember thinking how much I wanted them to like me…

And worrying that they wouldn’t because I had nothing positive to say about their local markets.

The charts were just so bad. There was no way around it.

The Thai Baht and the SET Index had just completed fresh tops. These trends were undeniably lower.

And this was really the case for all the Southeast Asian countries we visited.

Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam were in the middle of some nasty downtrends too.

I wish I had better news for everyone, but instead it felt like I was going from city to city announcing bear markets all over Asia.

I’ll never forget it. I literally felt bad. The people I met out there were trading these markets....

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 5/8/25

May 8, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLB.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Peloton Bounces! "Smart" agrees everyone

May 8, 2025

Everyone's lost but me.

That's the first and most likely explanation for why I gave Peloton's quarter an A- and Wall Street took the stock out back and shot it.

 

I don't own Peloton shares because I was counting on an incremental 10c on EPS. Not this quarter. Not this year. I refuse to believe otherwise smart people would sell $PTON down 10% or more because of the EPS miss.

I didn't expect a lot of sales from hardware. If you want a Peloton bike you probably have a Peloton bike. Peloton also fired its head of Marketing in April. If you're new to investing in the consumer space here's a tip: No one fires their head of marketing a week before they report earnings because sales are going great. 

I wanted to see low Churn (1.2%... perfect). Strong Cash Flow ($96M from ops, so good (for them)) and ongoing cuts (TBH, and this also goes against the building consensus) I'd like to see more aggression on doing things like moving out of the retail stores (more on that below).

If Peloton is generating ~$100M / quarter and subs aren't leaving the company simply isn't a zero. It's a target. Works better as part of a streaming service or private or...

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Grading Peloton

May 8, 2025
 

Peloton shares are down pre-market despite the company doing just about anything analysts could have asked from it.

Churn hit 1.2% despite a massive drop in marketing spend. As mentioned in the preview yesterday, if Peloton can retain the lucrative connected fitness subscribers (a decent proxy for customer satisfaction) and maintain disciplined spending you suddenly have a nice little cash flowing company with almost no built-in growth expectations.

A year ago then CEO Barry McCarthy resigned with the turnaround admittedly unfinished. Barry was smart and well-meaning but he was still clinging to the idea of Peloton has a growth company. A reset was needed and that's what Peloton has gotten.

 

 

Debt is down huge over the last year, cash flow has been positive 5 quarters in a row and Peloton is finally hinting at getting out of the stores which have been driving me quietly insane for years.

The call is starting but I wanted to get a note out. Barring something very bad from the company on the call Peloton is being punished for a quarter which is, at worst, an A- (Yes, Peloton is graded much easier than, say, Amazon).

 

This Ride’s Losing Momentum 🛑

May 8, 2025

Uber $UBER reported mixed results this quarter, topping revenue, but missing EPS expectations. 

Instead of celebrating what seemed to be a decent quarter, the stock dipped 2.5% on the day.

That’s not what strength looks like.

Revenue growth is slowing, and the company's sales and marketing spend is ramping up. This is a red flag for a business that’s supposed to be "scaling efficiently."

So while the revenue numbers came in hot, the internals are raising eyebrows.

In this tape, surface-level beats won’t cut it. Investors want margin discipline, accelerating growth, and clean execution. 

Uber didn’t deliver that. And the market responded accordingly.

This wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t convincing either.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Charles River Laboratories $CRL had the best reaction score...

Hot Corner Insider

Kovitz Investment Reports a 13.49% Stake in Powell Industries $POWL

May 8, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies — cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Powell Industries  $POWL — This is the headliner. Kovitz Investment Group just filed a 13G, revealing a 13.49% passive stake in this small-cap electrical equipment name.

Kovitz is a value-focused investment firm known for taking concentrated, long-term positions in underappreciated companies. When they show up with a size like this, it sends a clear signal.

📌 The CEOs of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust $PEB, Huntsman Corp $HUN, and WillScot Holdings $WSC just filed Form 4s revealing open market buys of $600,000, $493,000, and $268,000 worth of their own stock, respectively.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 7, 2025:

 

Click the table to...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 You Can't Miss This Chart

May 8, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Technology just printed its first green box in nearly three months.

Yesterday, I touched on the Growth vs. Value ratio and how Growth looks ready to regain leadership as markets recover from recent losses.

Adding fuel to that view, Technology — a cornerstone of the Growth trade — has reversed its breakdown relative to the broader market. That’s a failed move worth paying attention to.

You cannot miss this chart.

 

The setup is now in place: after a sluggish start to the year, Tech looks ready to step back into a leadership role.

Given its heavy weighting in U.S. indexes, this could be the tailwind needed to push the market toward fresh highs.

Steve Strazza caught this rotation in real time — flipping from puts to calls and riding the bounce with six trades that have already doubled.

Join us...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

All Eyes on the Euro

May 7, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

The US Dollar Index $DXY lives and dies by the Euro.

The Eurozone and the US are two of the largest economic blocs in the world, and their currencies sit at the heart of global trade and capital flows. 

It’s no surprise that the Euro makes up nearly 60% of the DXY — so when EUR/USD moves, it doesn’t just influence the Dollar Index, it drives it.

This year, the Euro has ripped higher in a near-vertical line, breaking out of a massive multi-year base.

 

Now price is coiling just above former resistance near 1.1240 — a key level that’s flipped into support.

This is a textbook bullish pennant pattern forming right above the breakout level, with strong momentum behind it.

...
All Star Options

If This Market Pulls Back, Watch Housing Stocks

May 7, 2025

My gut’s been talking lately—and it’s telling me that the odds of a market pullback are on the rise.

After a string of strong sessions, it’s only natural that the market might need to catch its breath. But it’s not just that. If we do head back toward the recent lows, I don’t expect it to be quiet. There will be noise. A lot of noise.

Some voices will shout that we’re “retesting the lows”—a technical inevitability, they’ll argue. Others will pound the table that this whole bounce was nothing more than a dead cat bounce, and that the real drop is just beginning.

I’ve got my own hunch about how this might play out—something I discussed on this morning’s Options Jam Session (watch below). But regardless of how far we pull back, I’m increasingly focused on one specific area of the market: housing stocks.

If things get slippery from here, I think the housing sector is particularly vulnerable. That vulnerability could come from multiple angles: rising rates, shifting consumer sentiment, or simply relative underperformance catching up with absolute price.

...

Bart's Charts

UBER - Patterns Galore

May 7, 2025

Uber has significant resistance a little higher. The amount of patterns coming together is pretty impressive.  In no particular order, LOG projection, 1.618 extension, 3 drives to a top w/ a 'nested' butterfly sell along w/ measured moves all coming together in/around the 90-95 level. Expect this to be formidable resistance to higher.  If it gaps and goes above this level, then believe Uber has underlying strength for a much higher move. Holding judgement till the levels mentioned (90-95) are firmly smashed in a move higher.

Bart