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The Daily Number

11 Out of 11 Ain’t Bad🧮

June 12, 2025

Today's number is... 11

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The black line in the bottom panel shows the number of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day moving average.

The Takeaway: From defensives like Utilities and Staples, to high-flying Tech and Communication Services, every corner of the market is participating.

This kind of broad strength doesn’t come around often.

When all 11 sectors are trending above their 50-day moving averages, it signals a healthy, unified advance.

Not just a rally carried by a few mega-caps doing the heavy lifting. 

That kind of strength raises the obvious question: what typically happens next?

Over the past few decades, this “11 out of 11” signal has usually led to positive forward returns — though...

Hot Corner Insider

Director Feinstein Reports a $4 Million $AIRS Purchase

June 12, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 AirSculpt Technologies $AIRS – Director Adam Feinstein just made a $4 million purchase, scooping up shares in this small-cap medical aesthetics name.

This kind of conviction from someone on the board doesn’t come every day, especially in a less liquid name like this.

📌 Vera Therapeutics $VERA – James Flynn of Deerfield Management just filed a fresh 13G, disclosing a 5.25% passive stake.

Biotech investors know Deerfield’s reputation – this could be early positioning for something brewing beneath the surface.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 11, 2025:

 

Click the table to...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Speculative Stocks Are Well Positioned

June 12, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

There's a lot of movement on the thematic table, but what I want to point your attention to is how the Ark Innovation ETF $ARKK  has flipped from red to green, similar to the other Ark funds on this list.

Earlier in the week we pointed out how Small Cap Growth $IWO looks poised to outperform; ARKK and IWO basically look the exact same.

So if small caps do take off in a meaningful way, ARKK is well positioned for upside. And as far as the trend is concerned right now, it's clearly trending higher, with a clean series of higher highs and higher lows.

 

 I don't think it's out of the picture now that valuations across the Ark ecosystem have stabilized to more rational levels to see the fund begin working higher back towards its former all time highs. Artificial intelligence and nuclear are driving conversations in the financial world right now, and its this group of speculative stocks that are well positioned to capture that upside.
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Failed Top in Semis

June 11, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

Semiconductors are probably the most important companies on the planet—they power today’s economy and carry heavy weight in major global indexes.

How they perform often sets the tone for the broader market.

Earlier this year, semis looked like they were about to break down and complete a nasty top relative to the S&P 500.

However, that didn’t last long. They bounced back quickly and reclaimed a key support level.

 

Bulls are scoring points and hooking higher, invalidating any negative implications from a potential breakdown.

This action can only be seen as a positive signal for the entire market.

After all, the big players are here to play—not to be benched...

The Strazza Letter

They Were Not Tops

June 11, 2025

The multi-year distribution patterns in energy are failing and hooking higher.

And from what I understand, it’s been confusing for some people.

I get that. If you’re one of them, keep reading; we’ll unpack it all.

But first, here’s something from a note I wrote on energy last month.

“I’m making the bet that crude scoops and scores here. I think it should look a lot more like its derivative plays soon, back in its old range. And I think we can get a fast move back toward the upper bounds from there. I’m talking about a big rally that sends crude back to the 80s or 90s”.

Why in the world was I feeling so warm and fuzzy about crude oil? 

It was just completing a massive top. What a naughty technician I must be. What was I thinking?

...
All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

Currency Report: The Won is Winning

June 11, 2025

We’ve been pounding the table on the rotation taking place across Asian equity markets. Vietnam, TaiwanThailandChina—you name it. 

The message is clear: the tide is turning and participation is broadening across Asia. 

It’s no longer just Japan. Everything else is starting to work.

One of the key forces driving this rotation is a weak US Dollar. When the dollar stumbles, emerging market currencies catch a bid—and local equities tend to follow. 

Here’s the latest in the mix, the Korean Won:

 

Like many Asian currencies, the Won spent over two years grinding lower in a steady downtrend. Earlier this year, it undercut key support. But instead of breaking down, it snapped back violently. 

It’s a...

All Star Options

The Power of Collaboration (and a Shot at a 30x Return)

June 11, 2025

When my friend and client—who manages a three-commas portfolio—calls me with a trade idea, I listen.

Sure, he’s human like the rest of us. Prone to bias, emotion, and the occasional bad read. But over the years, he’s earned my respect. He’s sharp, curious, and often brings fresh perspective to the table. So when his name pops up on my phone, I answer.

This week, he rang me up to talk about a stock that’s down 95% from its highs.

I’ll be honest—where I come from, we call that dumpster diving.

But as he laid out his case, I started to lean in.

He noted signs of a likely turn in the broader sector. He pointed out a major price gap from ten months ago that, if filled, could offer serious upside. And he reminded me that the stock in question is a “story stock”—the kind momentum traders love to chase if the price action gives them the green light.

While we talked, I pulled up the options chain and started scanning out in time—way out.

I found a June 2026 call with a roughly 1-in-4 shot of landing in the money. But if we’re right and that gap fills? That option could return 30x.

...
All Star Options

[Options Premium] Primed for a Comeback

June 11, 2025

Today's trade is in a stock that has been seemingly left for dead. Which is ironic, considering this company is engaged in keeping people alive.

This biotech company is an astounding 95% off it's 2021 highs.

But here's the thing... this stock just crossed above its 50-day moving average and appears to be holding there. And with a new leg higher in the stock market likely to lift a lot of boats, there is opportunity here.

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (06-11-2025)

June 11, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/11/25

June 11, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to KRE position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From Pantry Staple to Portfolio Risk 📉

June 11, 2025

J.M. Smucker $SJM just reminded investors that not even iconic consumer brands are immune to execution risk.

The $10B packaged food giant reported mixed results on Tuesday and suffered the worst earnings reaction in company history.

And it wasn’t just the headline numbers.

The company revised its long-term growth expectations lower for its recently acquired Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio.

They also lowered forward EPS guidance below consensus expectations.

These aren’t isolated issues. 

They reflect broader challenges of a flawed growth strategy.

For decades, this was a defensive compounder, anchored by brands like Jif, Folgers, Uncrustables, and Smucker’s jam. 

But its recent shift into new categories, primarily through the Hostess acquisition, hasn’t gone as smoothly as hoped.

Margins are under pressure, and inventory costs are increasing.

The market’s verdict? It’s an apparent loss of confidence.

So what else did we learn from this earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings stats for SJM 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

J.M....

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Report Card: Stitch-Fix Sews up a Win

June 11, 2025

Stitch Fix keeps refusing to die. The all-but-forgotten clothing box membership service is seeing shares jump after losing less and selling more than analysts expected in Q3. What should you do with shares near 2025 highs and up more than 100% since April 7th? 

Get my full report card on SFIX's quarter and how I'm playing the stock.  

 

I break down the quarter and give the company its full grade for members in the LINK

Hot Corner Insider

CEO Gerrity Buys 10,000 $VTS Shares

June 11, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Vitesse Energy $VTS – CEO Robert Gerrity filed a Form 4, revealing a purchase of 10,000 shares, equivalent to $232,900.

It’s not massive, but it’s a clean open-market buy in a small-cap energy name. I’m keeping a close eye on the whole energy complex as Crude Oil looks wound up for a classic bear trap

📌 Chemours Company $CC – Millennium Management just showed its hand, revealing a fresh 13G filing with a 6.1% stake.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 10, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 ICF...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Optimists Are Making Money

June 11, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

You may have noticed a theme in these notes.

That is, we sound like huge optimists.

But that's for a simple reason that being an optimist has paid off big in 2025 - even with all the volatility we've seen. In fact, while the S&P 500 is only up +1.60% this year, the average buyer is up +5.60% when you take into account dollar cost averaging.

More stocks keep breaking out and investors are being rewarded for buying into it.

And another major breakout just happened.

Industrials $XLI, one of the world's most important sectors, just made all time highs.

 

 

On Monday, we talked about the generational breakout in global stocks.

Yesterday, we touched on how the prospects for the riskiest companies in the world are looking great.

And today, we just have to touch on how the most important sector in the world is making all time highs.

Investors are being rewarded for their optimism, even throughout the ups and downs of this year. And with the way these breakouts are manifesting, we're continuing to bet that remains the case.

The Daily Number

Nobody Wants Small Caps — Perfect.🪫

June 11, 2025

Today's number is... 83

We’ve now seen 83 consecutive trading days where the 3-month rolling fund flow for the Russell 2000 (IWM) has been negative — a stretch small caps haven’t experienced since mid-2019.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The green and red candlesticks in the top panel show the price of the Russell 2000.
  • The green and red line in the bottom panel shows the rolling 3-month net fund flows for the Russell 2000.

The Takeaway: Nobody wants small caps right now.

And that’s exactly why I’m watching them.

Negative flows for this long isn’t just rare — it’s a clear sign of bearish sentiment.

Historically, when flows dry up like this, it reflects a market that’s been abandoned… and often sets the stage for a reversal.

But it’s not just fund flows.

Short interest in small caps is near 18-month highs.

Traders are leaning heavily against the space — and that kind of crowding rarely ends quietly.

It has also been 899 days since IWM last reached an all-time high.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Watch the Little Guys

June 10, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

The biggest development this week is unfolding in the market’s most risk-on corners.

When we look down the cap scale, small-cap stocks are breaking out—reclaiming a key level of resistance at the index level.

The Russell 2000 $IWM didn’t just punch through a horizontal brick wall—it also broke above a downward trendline that’s been in place since the highs from last year.

Most importantly, it’s now trading above the anchored VWAP from its all-time high.

 

That last point is crucial—it means the average buyer since the Russell’s peak is finally in the green.

Buyers are back in control, marking a major development that reinforces the bullish thesis for equities.

...