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Look at how many New Lows

December 20, 2024

Did you see how many stocks made new lows this week?

It wasn't many.

When you look at how dramatic people have been about a few stocks selling off a little bit, you would think that an actual correction might be taking place in the market.

But if you thought that humans act logically, then you clearly don't know humans.

Irrational behavior is actually the only thing that the market guarantees. And you saw it again this week.

I mean, you didn't even get an expansion of stocks making new lows!

This was nothing.

All you have to do is go and count. You'll quickly see how the new 52-week lows list is almost non-existent. In fact, you saw fewer new 52-week lows on the NYSE this week than you did in early August.

But if you look even shorter-term, say new 3-month lows, you didn't seen any sort of expansion there either.

Look at the total new 3-month lows among Large-caps, Mid-caps and Small-caps. 

 

And that's the thing right?

Mathematically, you cannot possibly have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, without the prices of stocks falling.

We know. It's just math.

So if we know that, then...

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(Commodities Weekly) All Gas No Brakes: Why We're Buying This Commodity 📈🔥

December 20, 2024

Mr. Market keeps sending us inflationary signals. Have you noticed?

Last Friday, we talked about cattle futures potentially leading bond yields higher. 

Boy, was that the case this week as bond yields soared on the heels of an FOMC meeting.

We've also talked about a rotation into the energy sector, which has been in the penalty box for most of this bull market.

While this hasn't happened at an index level yet, there have been pockets of strength, like uranium and...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Market’s Stress Test

December 20, 2024

With downside volatility picking up this week, some of you might be wondering if we are on the cusp of a significant market downturn, or is this just another dip that buyers will eventually step into?

It’s worth remembering that every big move starts small, but not every small move turns into something bigger. 

That’s where credit spreads come into play—they act as a reliable barometer of market health, offering insights into investor sentiment and risk appetite.

One effective way to measure them is by analyzing the ratio of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG to the Treasury Bond ETF $IEI.

When investors are willing to take on more risk, this ratio typically trends higher. On the other hand, when caution takes over and safety becomes the priority, credit spreads widen, and this ratio declines.

 

Currently...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 12/20/24

December 20, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XOP to February options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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International Hall of Famers (12-20-2024)

December 20, 2024

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
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How's your Bull Market Now?

December 20, 2024

I'm back from a few days away and boy do we have a lot to discuss.

I hope you enjoyed the guest posts over the past week from some of the key members of our team.

It's good that you get to know some of the other guys so you don't think I'm just some crazy guy who looks at a million charts. There's a lot more to it than that, and hopefully that came across this week.

But first thing's first. This is a bull market for stocks and people seem to be running scared. They're freaking out.

Good.

We're going to be discussing all of this and what we're doing about it on Monday during our next LIVE Video Conference Call....

Hot Corner Insider

Buffett and Berkshire Are Buying OXY, SIRI, and VRSN

December 20, 2024

Uncle Warren is back in the buying game.

When Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway start buying, it’s time to sit up and take notice. 

The Oracle of Omaha has returned to the open market with three intriguing purchases. Let’s dive into them.

First up, Occidental Petroleum $OXY. After a six-month hiatus, Buffett is back, snapping up shares. This marks the 29th Form 4 filing for OXY since he began building his position in early 2022. 

Berkshire shelled out $400 million this time, bringing Buffett’s average purchase price to $54.02. 

Here’s a chart highlighting the timing of Buffett’s $OXY purchases:

 

Next, Sirius XM Holdings $SIRI. Berkshire stepped in with a $107.2 million investment in the satellite radio giant. 

He now owns 117,468,573 shares, equivalent to 34.6% stake.

Here’s...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Friday, December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024

Today's number is... 2

We only have two out of nine indicators flashing green on my bull market behavior checklist.

Here is the table:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

About the Table: If you’re following me on X, you probably know that I like to know what type of environment we are in before allocating capital. 

This checklist is a mix of breadth, price & macro’ish indicators, which is designed to show turns toward risks or opportunities.

I use a mix of US and global market data and throw in a sprinkle of macro data. I do this...

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Dollar Breakout: Trouble Ahead for Stocks

December 19, 2024

While most uptrends have come under pressure in December, the rally in US Dollars has remained strong.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been climbing in a near-vertical line since it bottomed at the lower bounds of its range three months ago.

Today, DXY is attempting to break out of a base as it trades at its highest level in over two years.

 

A decisive breakout in the dollar could shift the tide and put significant pressure on risk assets.

As long as the DXY holds above the critical 107.50 level, stock market bulls are on high alert.

Dollar headwinds are the last obstacle stocks want to face heading into the holidays.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Dollar Breakout: Trouble Ahead for Stocks?

December 19, 2024

While most uptrends have come under pressure in December, the rally in US Dollars has remained strong.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been climbing in a near-vertical line since it bottomed at the lower bounds of its range three months ago.

Today, DXY is attempting to break out of a base as it trades at its highest level in over two years.

 

A decisive breakout in the dollar could shift the tide and put significant pressure on risk assets.

As long as the DXY holds above the critical 107.50 level, stock market bulls are on high alert.

Dollar headwinds are the last obstacle stocks want to face heading into the holidays.

...
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Junior Hall of Famers (12-19-2024)

December 19, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 12/19/24

December 19, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Defensive adjustment to XME.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Breakout Multiplier

Fading the Top in NVDA

December 19, 2024

There’s chatter about a potential head and shoulders top forming in NVDA. 

While it’s always good to be aware of potential reversal patterns, let’s keep things in perspective: these so-called “tops” have failed all year long.

We want to fade yesterday’s selloff and make the bet that this top in NVDA turns into a continuation pattern just like all those before it.

The underlying trend is far more important than any short-term pattern. And that trend, for Nvidia, continues to point higher.

 

Price is bouncing off the VWAP from August 5th lows.

This has all the characteristics I look for in a failed top, and this week, we even got a little shakeout to new lows. 

I love it when these patterns trap the bears before price springs higher. This is a common way for the failure rally to kick off.

We’re buying the $NVDA 1/24 $150...

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Is there an environment shift underway?

December 19, 2024

JC here.

It's the last day of guest posts from each of the members of the All Star Charts research team. I'll be back at my desk later this afternoon.

Today's post is from Grant Hawkridge.

Is There an Environment Shift Underway?

G'day everyone! 

Most of you already know me, but for those who don’t, my name is Grant. I’m the Aussie component of All Star Charts. 

JC and Steve found me lurking on Twitter, where I was sharing my...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Thursday, December 19, 2024

December 19, 2024

Today's number is... 97%

Forewarning: This note will take two minutes to read as a lot has happened since yesterday's move lower:

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its 10th consecutive down day.

- The S&P 500 has experienced 13 straight days with more decliners than advancers.

- The S&P 500 saw a spike in 1-month new lows to 60%, the highest level since March 2023.

- The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in oversold conditions increased to 29.5%, reaching its highest level since October 2023.

- The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average dropped to 18.3%, the lowest level since November 2023.

However, one data point that caught my attention was that over 97% of stocks in the S&P 1500 declined in price yesterday!

Here is the table:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

The Takeaway: Yesterday morning, I pointed out that the...