The Daily Number Articles

Today's number is... 416

There have been 416 consecutive trading days the 50-day average has been above the 200-day average in the High Momentum vs. Low Momentum ratio.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the relative ratio of the Dow Jones US High Momentum Index versus the Dow Jones US Low Momentum Index.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the number of consecutive days the 50-day moving average is greater than the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: This is a clean, consistent trend — and one that’s gaining strength.

This ratio measures how high momentum stocks are performing relative to low momentum stocks. 

In short, it tracks whether the market is favoring leaders or laggards.

Right now, it’s all about the leaders.

The ratio has been in a steady uptrend since early 2023, carving out higher highs through orderly consolidations, and is now breaking out to fresh all-time highs with no signs of fatigue.

...

Today's number is... 26

June 26 ranks as the fifth-worst trading day of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950. And this year, it lands on this coming Thursday.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

This table tracks the S&P 500’s average daily return for each day of the year from 1950 to 2024. Each row reflects how the index typically performs on that calendar date, averaged across more than 70 years.

The Takeaway: June 26 stands out with an average return of –0.29%, placing it firmly among the market’s biggest seasonal potholes.

But it’s not just one bad day.

It’s part of a broader stretch of trouble. From June 18 to June 27, nearly every day has posted a negative average return. 

It’s one of the most consistently weak windows on the calendar.

It’s a rare cluster of red that’s held up across decades.

And this year, the pattern may already be in motion. From June 18 to 20, the S&P 500 has already slipped by 0.25%, hinting that seasonal headwinds are starting to emerge.

Seasonality doesn’t move markets...

Today's number is... 13.44%

13.44% is the annualized return of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index when the 10-day moving average of its 40-day percent change is above the 120-day 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:  

• The candlesticks in the top panel show the S&P GSCI Commodity Index price.
• The middle panel plots the 40-day percent change with 10-day (blue) and 120-day (orange) moving averages.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the spread between those two MAs.
• Grey shading highlights periods when the 10-day average is above the 120-day.

The Takeaway: This tactical model doesn’t just track price.

It tracks the trend in momentum.

By smoothing the 40-day rate of change in the index, it identifies when strength is building or fading. 

When the 10-day average is above the 120-day, the model turns bullish. When it slips below, the model turns bearish.

When the momentum trend is...

Today's number is... 25

It’s taken 25 years for the Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000 ratio to return to its 2000 peak.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows: 

• The black line is the relative ratio of the Russell 1000 IWB versus the Russell 2000 IWM Index.

The Takeaway: 25 years in the making — this is a key test for market leadership.

The large-caps vs. small-caps chart has been carving out a massive base for a quarter century.

Now, it’s pressing up against resistance not seen since the dot-com era.

Why does it matter?

Because major leadership transitions often start with relative breakouts or rejections like this.

So what now?

If the ratio breaks out, large-caps tighten their grip.

Mega-caps extend their dominance, breadth stays narrow, and passive flows keep rewarding size.

In other words, the market keeps leaning into what’s already worked.

Or

If it rolls over, small-caps could finally take the lead.

That would hint at a risk-on rotation into underowned, overlooked parts of...

Today's number is... 4

There are 4 S&P 500 sectors that now have their 50-day moving average above their 200-day moving average.

The latest? Communication Services.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows: 

• The candlesticks show the price of the S&P 500 Communication Services Index.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: The Communication Services sector doesn’t just matter — it’s home to some of the biggest stocks on the planet: Meta, Alphabet, Netflix. 

When it turns, the market feels it.

Its 50-day moving average just crossed back above its 200-day moving average.

A bullish signal some call a golden cross. 

Not a timing tool by itself, but a sign that trend conditions are improving.

Only three other sectors are in the same camp — and they’re all near highs.

These four sectors sit just 3.0% off their 52-week highs on average.

The rest? ...

Today's number is... 3

My Core Market Model has climbed to 3 — its highest reading since November 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the Core Market Model — a composite of breadth, liquidity, and sentiment.

The Takeaway: At 3, the Core Market Model is sending a clear message: internals are strong and strengthening.

When these inputs align, trend conditions tend to improve — and that’s what we’re seeing now.

Two weeks ago, the model flipped positive. Since then, it’s gained momentum — moving firmly into what I call the Constructive zone.

That’s where markets tend to behave better: pullbacks get shallower, trends persist, and volatility fades.

This isn’t guesswork. Over two decades of data, the Constructive zone has delivered the most reliable forward returns — with tighter drawdowns and less noise.

We’re not stretched. We’re supported. That’s what matters....

Today's number is... 437 

We’ve already seen 437 days where the S&P 500 moved ±1% in the 2020s — and the decade’s only halfway done.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue bars is the S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The gray bar is the average S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The red bar is the S&P 500 ±1% days in the 2020s.

The Takeaway:

To put that in perspective, the average full decade — from the 1950s through to the 2010s — logged around 504 of these big-swing days. We’re already at 437, and there’s still nearly five years to go.

At this pace, the 2020s are set to become the most volatile decade in modern market history.

Not because of one-off shocks or extreme crashes — but because of the sheer frequency of large daily moves.

Historically, that kind of volatility hasn’t ended well.

More swings usually mean more stress.

But the 2020s? So far, they’re bucking that trend.

Despite all the whiplash,...

Today's number is... 11

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the number of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day moving average.

The Takeaway: From defensives like Utilities and Staples, to high-flying Tech and Communication Services, every corner of the market is participating.

This kind of broad strength doesn’t come around often.

When all 11 sectors are trending above their 50-day moving averages, it signals a healthy, unified advance.

Not just a rally carried by a few mega-caps doing the heavy lifting. 

That kind of strength raises the obvious question: what typically happens next?

Over the past few decades, this “11 out of 11” signal has usually led to positive forward returns — though...

Today's number is... 83

We’ve now seen 83 consecutive trading days where the 3-month rolling fund flow for the Russell 2000 (IWM) has been negative — a stretch small caps haven’t experienced since mid-2019.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green and red candlesticks in the top panel show the price of the Russell 2000.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel shows the rolling 3-month net fund flows for the Russell 2000.

The Takeaway: Nobody wants small caps right now.

And that’s exactly why I’m watching them.

Negative flows for this long isn’t just rare — it’s a clear sign of bearish sentiment.

Historically, when flows dry up like this, it reflects a market that’s been abandoned… and often sets the stage for a reversal.

But it’s not just fund flows.

Short interest in small caps is near 18-month highs.

Traders are leaning heavily against the space — and that kind of crowding rarely ends quietly.

It has also been 899 days since IWM last reached an all-time high.

Today's number is... 1.81%

1.81% is the average year-to-date return of an S&P 500 stock in 2025.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500's year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 hasn't exactly advanced much in 2025.

It’s up just 2.11% year-to-date.

And the average stock is doing even less, sitting at 1.81%.

This isn’t the kind of backdrop where you can throw darts and expect to win.

It’s been a high-volatility, choppy, and highly selective environment.

Average stock returns across sectors paint a messy picture. 

The average stock in Energy and Consumer Discretionary is down nearly 3%.

Even the traditionally strong Technology sector has seen average returns of just 4.5%.

Communication Services and Utilities lead the way...

Today's number is... 100

100 high-quality stocks quietly pushing the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ) to fresh all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows the price of the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ).

The Takeaway: When high-quality stocks take the lead, it means the rally has real substance. 

This isn’t about hype or speculative moonshots. 

SPHQ tracks 100 S&P 500 names with strong profits, low debt, and clean balance sheets — and they’re breaking out.

Names like Visa, Mastercard, Intuit, ADP, and Paychex are all hitting all-time highs. 

These aren’t flashy trades — they’re consistent leaders. 

That kind of strength signals depth, not dazzle.

It also marks a shift in psychology. 

Early risk-on phases start with junky momentum. Then comes value and cyclicals. But when quality takes over, it’s often the most durable stage. Investors are bullish — just smarter about where they’re putting capital.

This isn’t a FOMO rally. It’s...

Today's number is... 10

The ACWI vs US Industry Group Trend Spread just hit a 10-year high in favor of global markets.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: Global markets haven't looked this strong relative to the US in a long time.

Actually, this is the highest level we have seen in 10 years.

Here’s how I measure trend strength using my custom trend scoring system.

I score every ticker on a scale of 0 to 4:

• The 10-week moving average is rising
• The 40-week moving average is rising
• The 10-week MA is above the 40-week MA
• Price is above the 10-week MA

Each check gets a point. 

Four out of four = strong uptrend.

I apply this to 42 countries from the ACWI and 72 US industry groups — 24 each from the S&P 500, 400, and 600.

Once I’ve scored everything, I take the average trend score for both groups and calculate the spread. Then I smooth it with a 10-week moving average.

So why does this matter?

The spread just hit a 10-year high. 

It's not a fluke. 

...