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3
On Holdings, Cava and Birkenstocks are poised to move this week.
 

According to Deutsche over 60% of the consumer facing companies that have reported so Q2 so far are lower. What's striking / concerning / disturbing is the spread between winners and losers. The downside reactions (RIP $CROX) are brutal, the...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
Macke's Retail Report
$CAVA
$BIRK
$ONON
$SG
5
These 5 Stocks will set the tone for a critical week.

Buckle up for Earnings

Coming off a week marked by negative headlines (Tariff Madness, Lousy Jobs, and the biggest index declines since May), the stock market is heading straight into the heart of the real...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
Macke's Retail Report
$dis
$OPEN
$FRPT
$TKO
$HIMS
Can retailers recover from a brutal 5 days?

Sunday Musings Ahead of a Huge Week

The long grind higher since the April 8th lows came to a thudding halt last week and, not surprisingly, it was the Consumer Discretionary names leading the way lower. By the time the...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
Macke's Retail Report
$TGT
$WMT
$PTON
$UBER
$dis
5
5 Charts I'm watching today

VFC is Screaming Higher!

 

 

The owner of Vans, Columbia and Timberland (among other things) came in better than expected despite yet another decline in the Vans division, which fell by 14%. There's a...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
Macke's Retail Report
$PTON
$SPOT
$ETSY
$VFC
$SBUX
d
One campaign won't save AEO... but it can move the stock

I couldn't stop thinking about AEO's new campaign. Not because of the actress or the fake(?) controversy being kicked up online. My interests are artistic, historic and pecuniary. 

I wrote about the...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
$AEO
$LEVI
Macke's Retail Report
f
Can Sweeney's popularity revive the company? No one is really asking yet.

Shares of American Eagle rose 21% after hours for reasons that are a mystery to people who think Sydney Sweeney is "mid".

The "Sydney Sweeney has Great Jeans" campaign, featuring the popular actress in AEO denim, added just under $400 million to...

The Macke Letter
Jeff Macke
$AEO
c
Starbucks needs more Steam

No one has been rooting for Starbucks harder than me, but the chain is running out of time. With the coffee giant set to report next week, and CEO Brian Niccol approaching his first anniversary since being announced as CEO it's time to review the Risk...

The Macke Letter
$SBUX
$BROS

It didn't seem to impact Jeff Bezos' wedding but shares of Amazon have made almost no progress so far in 2025. With YTD gains of only 2% $AMZN is underperforming the S&P500, not to mention fellow Three King Merchants Walmart and Costco:

 ...
The Macke Letter
$LULU $NKE $GAP $CCL $RCL $VIK $BBW
nike

If you aren't watching the US Open are you even working?

Leaving aside the finances of LIV and the PGA. You can also throw out the slow-growth, low-margin equipment business. I'm here for the outfits. These fittish, highly-strung men...

The Macke Letter
$NKE $LULU $UAA $MODG $GOLF
Peloton

Huge week for consumer news. Target and Deckers tanked, Urban Outfitters soared and Williams-Sonoma managed to get out of a tricky earnings report more or less unscathed.

But one of the bigger stories, and biggest moves, happened in a name from...

The Macke Letter
$PTON
D
 

Deckers closed out an eventful week by offering frankly terrifying guidance for the current quarter and refusing to even speculate as to how much worse things could get from here.

The makers of Hoka and Uggs said demand for the former has...

The Macke Letter
tjx

Everything wrong at Target is great for TJX, which reported yet another quarter of Beat EPS, Beat Revs, Low-Ball Guidance quarter.

Shares for both are flat for the moment but, having just gotten off the TJX call I can share with all confidence...

The Macke Letter
$TJX
sad

Target didn't have to be "Great" today. They didn't even have to be good. 

Since briefly becoming America's retail comfort food during COVID Target has been on an epic run of failure. The misses have only been interrupted only by short...

The Macke Letter
$TGT
Inverted Bat

We are so freaking back.

In a turn of events which would have been shocking virutally any other time in American history the administration finally agreed to a firm 90 day pause on the Chinese tariffs. "Firm" and "Pause" and "Deescalation" and,...

The Macke Letter
Pton
 

Peloton shares are down pre-market despite the company doing just about anything analysts could have asked from it.

Churn hit 1.2% despite a massive drop in marketing spend. As mentioned in the preview yesterday, if Peloton can retain the...

The Macke Letter
$PTON

Macke portfolio holding Peloton reports in the morning. Officially the Street is looking for a loss of 6c on ~$650mm for the quarter and about $2.5b in revenue for the year, cranking out about $300 to $350 million EBITDA.

But that's not what I'...

The Macke Letter
ub

Uber is is pulling back premarket, ostensibly on slightly light revenues and solid but not spectacular guide. At least that's going to be the reason analysts will cite for not taking up their ratings on Uber, despite the company crushing on trailing...

The Macke Letter
Disney

Disney just beat the crap out of estimates and (surprising part here) guided higher for the year. 

Despite collapsing consumer sentiment, a drop off in US park visits, leaning even deeper into cruises (which might be the only way to...

The Macke Letter
boom

I added a new name to the Retail Round-Up portfolio last week. Spotify entered the portfolio after reporting a "disappointing" first quarter that, honestly, couldn't have made me happier. 

As discussed in the Spotify...

The Macke Letter
nervous

Starbucks set to report tonight and if you aren't nervous you haven't been paying attention. 

Shares of the worlds largest coffee shop are trading at levels first hit in 2019, a depressing run of mediocrity that has included 4 CEOs, a...

The Macke Letter
$SBUX

Spotify ("The Swedish Netflix") reports, essentially while we are sleeping tonight. The Podcast King is expected to to report revenue growth of about 20% at $4.6b and earnings of $2.52-ish or more, which is a growth rate too large to really delve into...

The Macke Letter

As the dust settles on Liberation Day the Street is starting to pick through the rubble and getting long stocks just in case the world doesn't end.

Consider On Holdings, the Swiss shoe and athletic concern. Shares are popping on a down day...

The Macke Letter
monopoly

Getting our first look at consumer-facing outlooks now that we've gotten through the tedious Banks portion of earnings season.

Notable takeaways:

  • Hasbro was surprisingly good but it's not really "game on" until Q3 and Q4. Gets 50% of...
The Macke Letter
$HAS $PEP $CMG