The past couple of weeks have been rough.

Volatility is rising, and key groups are testing major levels—making me question just how bullish this market really is.

It feels like decision time.

Either this bull market holds, and we continue to spend our time looking for stocks to buy…

Or sellers take control and change the market’s character, and we start looking for stocks to sell.

When markets reach an inflection point, it’s always a good idea to check in on the biggest names.

These are the stocks investors want to own. The ones hedge funds anchor their portfolios with.

These are the bellwethers and the roadmap for everything else.

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Precious metals are shaping up, and silver looks ready to play catch-up.

One good way to add some exposure here is through Pan American Silver $PAAS.

The stock has been carving out a nice base since last summer and is pushing toward the top of its range. 

If silver moves, PAAS will move—and it should come with a lot more juice.

The setup is clean, our risk is well-defined, and the upside potential is solid. If we’re right about silver, PAAS will be one of the best ways to play it.

Here’s the play:

We’re buying the $PAAS 4/17 $27 calls for approximately $0.45-0.55 per contract....

Today's trade is a bet that today's lows are going to stick for a little bit. Time is of the essence, so let's go...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

Every stock in the mall is getting obliterated on Tariff headlines and slow spending. Finding dips to buy and places to hide. 

We wanted clues as to how consumer stocks were going to handle the News when reporting earnings over the next couple weeks and, for the most part, the answer seemed to be "poorly", at least when it came to the Big Box names which continue to be plagued by Tariff headlines and ambivalent customers.

As more or less anticipated, Target and Best Buy posted ok numbers and guided cautiously (see: "Beat and Guide Lower" from earlier this week). On which is the only name of the three I own turned in a glorious quarter and outlook (sees ~35% Q1 growth!) but was only rewarded with a rather anemic bounce:

What Did We Learn:

• The risk is still to the downside. ONON could have bounced higher. In fact, it really should have gotten a bigger bump from today's report, which was about perfect. Best Buy arguably could have seen a gain on slightly better than expected news and Target hasn't seemed this lost in years but not in a surprisingly way. The net result was negative returns on the...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XHB to April options.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Last night might have been the most important LIVE Conference Call we've ever had.

Traders and Investors have so many questions right now about the coming months and quarters that we had so much to talk about.

We went over all the most important trends in the market today, what our favorite setups are from the long side, what the new downside risks look like, and my one favorite place to put money to work RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.

Click here and register to get full access to last night's LIVE Video Conference Call.

You'll be able to pause, rewind and fast forward. And the slide deck with over 160 charts is also available to download right away.

Watch the Replay and get the Trade Ideas...

The big story today is the sheer number of CEOs putting their own money on the line to buy the dip.

📌 Taboola $TBLA: Founder and CEO Adam Singolda bought another 123,771 shares.

📌 Wolverine World Wide $WWW: CEO Christopher Hufnagle stepped in with $295,400.

📌 Kratos Defense $KTOS: CEO Eric M. DeMarco filed a Form 4 revealing an acquisition of 9,500 shares.

📌 Talkspace $TALK: CEO Jon R. Cohen backs his own company with a $214,000 share purchase.

📌 Geron Corp $GERN: CEO John A. Scarlet reported a $206,213 purchase.

📌 Federal Signal $FSS: CEO Jennifer L. Sherman doubles down on industrial growth with a $102,900 buy.

📌 Selective Insurance $SIGI: CEO John J. Marchioni bought 1,180 shares for $102,000.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 3, 2025:

...

Today's number is... 2021

My Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio has sharply declined recently and returned to levels when the ratio peaked and fell into a consolidation period back in 2021.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio.
  • The Risk-On components consist of Copper (HG1), High Yield Bonds (JNK), Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD), Semiconductors (SOXX/SPY) & High Beta (SPHB/SPY).
  • The Risk-Off components consist of Gold (GC1), US Treasury Bonds (TLT), Yen (JPYUSD), Utilities (XLU/SPY) & Staples (XLP/SPY).

The Takeaway: Investors are experiencing fear and pessimism, as bearish sentiment dominates the surveys. The US market is beginning to mirror this mood, showing a preference for a Risk-Off environment. This is reflected in my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio, which has returned to a key level of importance where we saw NYSE breadth reach its peak in 2021.

Will this resistance level, which has turned into support, continue to act as support, or will this ratio...

The key piece of information here is how more and more international diversified ETFs are overtaking the US' S&P 500 $SPY.

International stocks have outperformed YTD versus the United States, a trend that has persistently favored the latter for well over a decade. This has us wondering whether we're entering into a new regime of widening global breadth outside the United States.

Something we're pondering in the short-term, however, is whether we see some rotation back into the United States as many U.S. growth names closed the week bouncing off support while many international ETFs hit their highs.

Take Colombia $GXG, for instance, which is finding resistance at its 2024 highs.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ defended a key level of support.

And while this took place, the relative trend favored the United States over international in a strong way to close last week. Take a look at how much international stocks $VEU underperformed on Friday.

While these are shorter-term trends, the big picture is impossible to ignore.

More international markets are beginning to outperform...

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It really looks like game over for crypto. Hear me out. 

Last week, I wrote a post about how I’m turning bearish. I’m out and even a little short. It’s been going well.

Then last night, Trump tweets about the crypto reserve and sets the whole space on fire.

Cardano is rallying 60%, and I’m sitting in my office preparing a list of things I need to see to turn bullish again. 

But by the time traditional markets opened today, it was clear this move was a head-fake. It was more of the same. 

Despite the bullish headlines, all the Sunday fireworks would be erased.

We’ve already discussed the sentiment of the asset class and how cryptos have reacted to news lately. It’s a big part of my bearish thesis. But, this is a new low.

Think about it. 

Crypto was public enemy number one just last year.

Now, we don’t just have a friendly and favorable regulatory environment...

Last Friday, Steve asked me to send over the most bearish charts from my chartbook as a good exercise in playing devil’s advocate internally with the team.

Off the top of my head, I pointed to these.

After today’s market action, this one stands out even more.

Credit spreads are one of the most reliable indicators of risk appetite. If there’s stress in the market, it’ll show up in credit first.

When investors feel good, they buy high-yield debt. When risk appetite fades, they run to safety, favoring treasuries.

Historically, HYG/IEI has led major market moves, bottoming and topping ahead of stocks in past cycles.

Right now, it’s flirting with a failed breakout, struggling to hold above a key level of former highs. 

If...

This precious metals bull market will turn 1 year old on Tuesday.

Can you believe it? 

Gold futures resolved a multi-decade basing pattern on March 4th, 2024.

We've had a blast riding the shiny yellow metal higher and made a ton of money along the way.

The cycle has had its ups and downs, no doubt about it.

But when we zoom out and analyze the long-term trends, it's clear what environment we're in. A raging bull market!

Buyers are being rewarded, and sellers are being penalized. This is what happens in uptrends.

Let's take a moment to step back and assess our progress over the last year.

Today's trade is in a stock that recently announced earnings. The reaction was muted, which I think is a good thing. It left the chart sitting right where I'd like it to be, holding the recent lows of a 4-week pullback. 

The beauty is that this gives me a nearby risk management level, so I'll have an opportunity to keep losses to a minimum if the rebound doesn't materialize.

I came down with a pretty bad cold this weekend. Most of my Sunday was spent quarantined in my office so I wouldn't get my kids sick (4yr old and twin 2yr olds).

Of course, rather than laying in bed resting, I was in my office looking through charts.

I couldn't help myself.

It's my way of relaxing. And as it turns out, I do feel a lot better today than I did when I woke up yesterday.

But one thing I was able to do was go one by one counting stocks, sectors and indexes all over the world to see if these ugly rumors about weakening market breadth were true.

As it turns out, they're just lies. 

Market breadth continues to expand as more and more countries around the world are hitting new highs, not fewer.

We already discussed how Earth is Hitting New All-time highs. 

But if you go one by...