The Daily Number Articles

Today's number is... 8

My canaries in a coal mine just sang loud and clear: all eight of my key risk areas of the market are now trading above their 200-day moving averages. 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The chart is divided into eight panels, each tracking the daily price for a different sector or industry group. The red line marks the 200-day moving average in each panel. 

The Takeaway: From Semiconductors to Small Caps to Steel — everything is back in gear. 

That’s the strongest internal signal we’ve seen all year from this list.

These eight canaries are my market’s warning system. 

If something’s breaking beneath the surface, this is where it usually shows up first. 

But right now, they’re all flying in formation — above their 200-day moving averages — and pointing to expanding strength, not hidden stress.

Semiconductors are leading with fresh highs. Biotech and Steel are coming off the mat after long slumps. Small Caps and Banks have reclaimed...

Today's number is... 52

There have been 52 consecutive trading days the S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day moving average — just shy of the 53-day streak seen in early 2024 — and one of the most persistent trend runs of the past 25 years.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 daily close, with its 20-day moving average in red.
• The black line in the lower panel plots the number of consecutive days the index has closed above its 20-day average.

The Takeaway: Credit to Subu Trade for sparking the deep dive into this.

The 20-day moving average is a simple trend barometer. 

When price stays above it, bulls are still in control.

But when it does so for 50 or more sessions...

Today's number is... 0.72

The composite Z-score of three major sentiment surveys—AAII Bulls, Investors Intelligence Bulls, and the NAAIM Exposure Index—just hit 0.72. That’s the highest reading of 2025 and marks a clear shift toward optimism.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 Index on a weekly closing basis.
• The blue line in the lower panel shows the average Z-score of AAII Bulls, Investors Intelligence Bulls, and the NAAIM Exposure Index.

The Takeaway: For most of this year, sentiment has been playing catch-up. The S&P 500 has been breaking out for months, yet investors remained hesitant. 

That gap is now closing. 

Last week’s jump signals that the crowd is finally buying into the rally. 

This is a notable psychological shift.

A reading of 0.72 lands in the 74th percentile of all weekly observations since 2011. That’s elevated, but far from euphoric. 

Historical sentiment extremes don’t...

Today's number is... 2

That’s how many green lights are flashing in this two-factor trend model built on two of the market’s oldest rules: don’t fight the tape, and don’t fight the Fed.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 Index on a monthly basis.
• The red line is the 12-month moving average of the S&P 500.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the 3-Month Financial Commercial Paper Rate.
• The red line is the 10-month moving average of that rate.
• Green shading highlights a bullish regime based on trend.
• Red shading highlights a bearish regime based on trend.

The Takeaway: This is a simple model that tracks price and policy — the two forces that move markets. When both align, history says the odds tilt higher.

I’ll start with the tape.

When the S&P 500 trades above its 12-month average, it signals a healthy...

Today's number is... 60

The NYSE Advance/Decline Diffusion Index crossed above 60 and has held for the past two weeks — this is the first overbought reading since October 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the NYSE A/D Diffusion Index.
• Each vertical gray line highlights where the NYSE A/D Diffusion Index crosses above 60.

The Takeaway: Overbought ≠ Exhaustion. 

It means demand is broad.

This is one of my favorite tools for spotting real strength under the hood. Built by Ned Davis Research, the NYSE A/D Diffusion Index tracks how many stocks are moving higher each week… and when it breaks above 60, things tend to get interesting.

It tells us most stocks are trending higher, not just a handful of mega-caps. 

This kind of participation fuels sustainable trends. It’s the market’s way of saying: this move is broad, not...

Today's number is... 157.93

That’s the new all-time high for my custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows our custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index. It includes major cross-sector leaders, such as Alcoa, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, FedEx, General Electric, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald’s, Walmart, and Exxon Mobil.

The Takeaway: This index tracks the most important stocks in the market.

These are companies that sit at the center of the US economy.

From tech and energy to healthcare and financials, each name carries equal weight.

No single stock dominates.

It’s a clean read on real leadership.

And these names are the generals.

When they move together, they reflect investor confidence and broad market appetite for risk.

New highs in this group usually signal that the backdrop is strengthening, not weakening.

The index just broke out of its latest base and closed at a fresh high.

It’s been stair-stepping...

Today's number is... 38

38 is how many Golden Crosses — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — have triggered in the S&P 500 since 1950. 

The most recent signal was just yesterday.

Here’s the chart and stats table:

Let's break down what the chart and table show:

• The blue and red lines are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 Index.
• The gray lines mark each Golden Cross in the S&P 500 since 1950.
• The table displays the average forward returns following all 38 Golden Crosses over the past 75 years. 

The Takeaway: Golden Crosses are a bullish tailwind, not a contrarian fade.

The signal just triggered — not in fear, but in strength. Price is near all-time highs.

They don’t guarantee gains, but they tip the odds meaningfully in favor of higher prices.

Across all 38 signals, the median one-year return is +13.0%, with 81% of outcomes finishing in the green. 

Average returns build steadily over time: 1.2% after 21 days...

Today's number is... 6

We’re 6 months into 2025, and the S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high… up 5.49% YTD.

But under the surface, it’s a very different story.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each bubble represents a stock in the S&P 500, plotted by 2025 Year-To-Date performance (y-axis).
• Green bubbles = gain in 2025.
• Red bubbles  = loss in 2025.
• Bubble size = market cap.
• Stocks are grouped by sector (x-axis).

The Takeaway: At the halfway mark, the surface looks strong, but the internals tell a different story. 

Just 222 stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index so far in 2025. That means 281 are lagging behind. 

The average stock is up only 3.95%, well below the index itself. 

This gap highlights narrow leadership, with a small group of large-cap winners doing most of the heavy lifting.

Industrials are packed with winners, led by names like HWM, which is up more than 60% this year. 

In Technology, WDC is one...

Today's number is... 4

That’s how many times the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high in 2025, with the 4th one coming on Friday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index daily price.
• The gray vertical lines mark every day the index closed at an all-time high.

The Takeaway: All-time highs tend to freak people out. 

The instinct is to take profits, wait for a pullback, or assume a top is near. 

But history says that’s usually the wrong move.

After hitting a fresh high, the market continues to rise more often than not. One month after an ATH, the S&P is higher about 60% of the time. That jumps to 68% at three months, 73% at six, and 72% after a full year. The median 12-month return is a solid +8.8%.

In other words, a new high isn’t a warning sign.

It’s often a green light. 

Markets don’t top just because they’ve “gone too far.” 

Most major bull runs are powered by strings of fresh highs, not stopped by them....

Today's number is... 6

These are the 6 risk indicators I track for confirmation or divergence of the move in the S&P 500 — and right now, four are confirming the rally while two remain neutral, as the index hovers just 0.05% below its record high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top row tracks equity leadership: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, and Discretionary vs. Staples.
• The bottom row captures macro and internal confirmation: the Inverted US Dollar, the Advance-Decline Line, and High-Yield vs. Treasury Bonds.

The Takeaway: These 6 charts track the tug-of-war between offense and defense. Together, they show where money is flowing — and whether this rally is built on broad support or narrow leadership.

4 out of 6 signals are in clear confirmation mode, lending strong support to the S&P 500’s climb. 

High Beta stocks and Cyclicals are leading the charge — a textbook sign of risk-on behavior. 

Market breadth is strong, with the Advance-Decline Line...

Today's number is... 8

That’s a new 8-month high for my custom Risk-On Index — and it just broke above a key trendline.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green line in the top panel is my custom Risk-On Index.
• The red line in the bottom panel is my custom Risk-Off Index.

The Takeaway:The Risk-On Index is a clean gauge of risk appetite that blends key assets like copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar, semiconductors, and high beta. 

And right now, it’s sending a clear message — buyers are getting aggressive.

Meanwhile, the Risk-Off Index is heading in the opposite direction. After failing to hold above a key support and resistance level, it’s rolling over again — but hasn’t yet broken below its own trendline.

Together, they signal a clear shift in positioning: away from defense and back toward risk.

The last time we saw this kind of dual confirmation was late 2022. That marked the start of a brand new bull market in equities. 

So, if the Risk-Off Index confirms with a...

Today's number is... 86

It took just 86 trading days for the Nasdaq 100 to shake off its latest 23% slide and punch out a new all-time high yesterday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the Nasdaq 100 with each all-time high marked by the blue step line.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks drawdowns from all-time highs.

The Takeaway: Since 1990, the Nasdaq 100 has experienced seven major drawdowns where it fell more than 20% from its highs. The latest drop — a 23% slide from February to April — now ranks as the third-fastest recovery on record.

Only two rebounds were quicker: the Covid crash in 2020, which took just 75 trading days to reclaim its highs, and the 1998 correction, which took 80.

This one took 86.

That puts the 2025 recovery well ahead of the 2018 selloff, the early-90s recession, and the 2021–23 decline. 

And it’s in another league entirely from the post-2000 collapse, which took nearly 4,000...