Macke's Retail Roundup+ Articles

Disney just beat the crap out of estimates and (surprising part here) guided higher for the year. 

Despite collapsing consumer sentiment, a drop off in US park visits, leaning even deeper into cruises (which might be the only way to vaporize your money faster than going to a theme park) and national disinterest in all things Marvel and Star Wars Disney guided pretty much every higher for just about every segment and hiked the annual estimate by over 30c a share.

Just to flex a little more Disney also raised expected cash flow by more than $2 billion. 

Oh yeah, Disney also added the news of a new park in Abu Dhabi. Which raises a whole bunch of questions

Let's Grade It!

Financials: A

This is why you have a conglomerate. Parks fall off? Entertainment picks up the slack. Cruises are disappointing? Streaming picks up some slack. This is probably the best quarter for Disney since the return of Iger, given the cross-currents.

Consumer: B+

Park profitability went up despite less traffic. I'd like to think that was because the company was controlling traffic levels by raising prices, a...

In late April Dad-Shoe brand Skechers reported decent earnings and pulled all guidance.

We talked about it at the time in my video update. To refresh, Skechers had cash, patience and a good management team with a strong track record. They also source 40% of their product from China. As a results SKX management rather candidly said "we don't know" and yanked guidance for the rest of the year.

At the time my question was whether or not the stock could hold its lows:

The stock held, which was bullish but it would seem Skechers thought the certainty of cash in hand from 3G was better than rolling the dice of adjusting the supply chain on the fly. Today Skechers announced an agreement to be bought for $63/ share. A 30% premium over the price on Friday but below where SKX was trading in February.

It's important that A) Skechers was worried enough to take the cash and B) Private Equity was there to offer a bid. Skechers was looking at reporting for the next 9 months having no idea what the numbers would be. After a quarter century of...

Earnings season is heating up as we get into May. We've heard from plenty of consumer facing names so far (Hasbro, McDonald's, Chipotle) but by time honored tradition the earnings season for retail doesn't start until Walmart reports which won't happen until next Thursday.

It makes sense if you think about it. Walmart is the biggest retailer on earth. They set the standard and the context for all the other retailers. If Walmart reports positive comps and says it sees no problem with scarcity next week that raises the bar for Target. Home Depot reports before Lowe's for the same reason. There's no official law forcing the order. It's just what makes sense.

Once the big box stores are done reporting the floodgates open. Foot Locker, Best Buy, Kohl's, Gap, Ulta will all be on the record by the end of the month. While the economists argue over the long term implications of trade policy the retailers will be telling us what's actually happening in the real world.

I find it much more lucrative to focus on what Walmart is saying consumers are doing than what economists think should be happening.

I'm grading the names that matter and giving select earnings...

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

We made our first new purchase since launching the consumer portfolio earlier this year...

This is a stock I've been keeping an eye on for a while, and I'm of the opinion that it's probably more recession proof than most people think. 

Today's new all-time highs certainly don't hurt! 

I added a new name to the Retail Round-Up portfolio last week. Spotify entered the portfolio after reporting a "disappointing" first quarter that, honestly, couldn't have made me happier. 

As discussed in the Spotify preview and earnings Report Card, I didn't care much about what Spotify reported for EPS or financial guidance. I cared about subscriber count. Specifically, premium subscribers. I don't know anything more than anyone else about how these Interesting Times work out in terms of the economy over the next 6 months but I know a certain level of Chaos as been created. Whatever happens from here, everything since April 2nd has worked to the relative benefit of the most powerful, liquid, flexible consumer names. 

That means Walmart, Costco and Amazon (we only own the last name in the portfolio) will take share from lesser players. It means companies like Gap and Victoria's Secret, with diversifiend supply...

As the Everything Company, it's appropriate Amazon's earnings will have something for everyone. 

Want some insight into impact of trade tension on consumer spending? Amazon's got you. Shipping? Amazon can tell you more than UPS did. Tariffs, IT spending, the impact of Chinese trade on drone delivery? Check, check, check. Amazon promised to invest heavily wherever it saw an opportunity when the company went public nearly 30yrs ago and the company has absolutely lived up to its word.

Amazon has gone from a bookseller to a stealthy Club Store (Amazon Prime has over 200 million members and generates $40 billion a year) to a movie streaming service. The company is taking over the production of Thursday Night Football, making it a nascent television network and movie studio. Presumably, to aid in the streaming of all this content this week Amazon launched the first of what will be 3200 satellites for high-speed internet. Naturally, Amazon used founder Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin rocket company for deployment. 

And people thought he just started that company for celebrity near-space tourism.

Amazon gives good conference call (long answers, insanely smart...

It wasn't the numbers that cooked shares of Starbucks after hours last night. Not that Starbucks didn't turn in a "disappointing" (their words) quarter last night. They did. But the stock was hanging in there just fine well into last night's call. China comps were flat(!), The US was weak but not a disaster and the rest of the world comped positively. Margins were a trainwreck. EPS wasn't even close to estimates, but Starbucks pulled guidance over 6mo ago. No one owned Starbucks for last night's EPS.

What killed $SBUX (or at least sent shares from flat to down ~8%) was Starbucks shifting spending plans from machinery to labor. Under prior management, Starbucks was somewhat obsessed with rolling out Machines and Food, committing to spending $450 million on machinery starting in 2022. Say goodbye to the cold brew systems and elaborate food prep systems. Only heavy-traffic drive-thru-based stores were getting the elaborate coffee-making systems.

Niccol, who seemed confident if a little disdainful of prior initiatives he's now having to unwind, is young(er) blood but old school. He's spending on employees. Not throwing money at them but absolutely spending more on labor...

Starbucks set to report tonight and if you aren't nervous you haven't been paying attention. 

Shares of the worlds largest coffee shop are trading at levels first hit in 2019, a depressing run of mediocrity that has included 4 CEOs, a national controversy over the use of store bathrooms and the COVID lockdown. The lockdowns were particularly notable for Starbucks because ~20% of its revenues (and much less of its earnings) are generated in the Chinese market, which was something of a career-long hobbyhorse of longtime leader Howard Schultz. 

The company pulled all guidance last fall, one of the first orders of business under CEO Brian Niccol. Suffice it to say the business outlook hasn't gotten more transparent since October.

Same store sales were likely down in the US last quarter, though likely with improved tickets but weaker traffic. FWIW analysts are looking for EPS of 50c on about $8.8b of revenue. There will be currency noise and, as just mentioned, Starbucks itself isn't giving any guidance and has no particular incentive to stretch numbers or paint a rosy international picture. Niccol arrived with a well-earned reputation and he's...

Spotify is down 8% pre-market on missing the EPS estimate for Q4. The subscription numbers were good with monthly usage and premium subscriber numbers coming in better than expected. The guidance for FY subs was light, which seems more on the side of prudent than a red flag.

As I wrote about ahead of earnings, $SPOT had become a crowded long as shares tacked on 20% and $100 heading into the earnings release.

There are companies you want to own for a steady earnings stream. Spotify isn't one of them. 

SPOT into the quarter with too many people needing a huge beat. I was hoping for something more like this. 

Here's how I'm planning to trade it for the Macke Consumer portfolio.

Spotify ("The Swedish Netflix") reports, essentially while we are sleeping tonight. The Podcast King is expected to to report revenue growth of about 20% at $4.6b and earnings of $2.52-ish or more, which is a growth rate too large to really delve into here. Not because it isn't impressive but  because I don't think it matters all that much what Spotify reports as much as how they guide.

Spotify isn't cheap for the best reasons. 1. The company is now printing money and utterly indispensable to ~265 million people worldwide. 2. There isn't (yet) a tariff on steaming stuff 3. Spotify is a global brand, generating more than half its revenues from "other countries" (there are apparently consumers in non-America, I'm having a team look into it).

While we're pie-charting let's add this:

That's Spotify's revenue breakdown on advertisements vs subscribers. Combine those two ChatGPT-generated charts and my hand-written efforts and you know why Wall Street was comfortable bidding SPOT up 33% YTD while the rest of the world burns:

• Ads are flaky but Subs stick around. This is a big part of a lot of my investment thesis this year. I think...

As the dust settles on Liberation Day the Street is starting to pick through the rubble and getting long stocks just in case the world doesn't end.

Consider On Holdings, the Swiss shoe and athletic concern. Shares are popping on a down day thanks to a couple upgrades. The gist of both is something I wrote about the company last March; On is taking market share, expanding across the globe and generally speaking the hottest brand going, at the moment.

That's the view of me, Citi, UBS and about 75% of the fashionable people I run into at our over-priced health club. It's also something noticed by Mrs. JC Parets, and Mrs Jeff Macke; two solid sources on such matters.

On vs Skechers

Being hot is the ultimate tailwind for a consumer brand. Given the headwinds of the moment (tariffs based on trades between the US and anywhere else), it doesn't hurt On to be a Swiss based company doing a lot of business in Europe and on the other side of moving a good portion of production from China to Indonesia and Vietnam.

Skechers,...

Every month, I do a monthly Town Hall for my premium members at Macke's Retail Roundup+. This is meant to be a chance for my members to interact directly with me. I'll go over my portfolio, talk about my recent trades, and answer your questions. 

Watch the video and talk to me in chat below.