From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended May 9, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Today, I’m headed to New Orleans for our tri-annual Portfolio Accelerator event.

There’s always been something about this city that resonates with me—not just the food, the music, or the unmistakable soul of the French Quarter—but its relationship with risk.

New Orleans understands risk. And more importantly, it understands how to manage it.

From levees and dikes to advanced pumping and drainage systems, the city doesn’t ignore the dangers it faces. It builds around them. It plans for them. It respects them. Just like we do as traders.

That’s part of why this city is such an inspiring backdrop for a room full of portfolio-focused minds. Like New Orleans, we try to hedge our exposure. We use long options, smart position sizing, and strategic overlays to reduce our downside risk. And like the levees, those hedges give us peace of mind—until the water starts to rise.

Because here’s the truth: sometimes, Mother Nature throws a punch you just can’t fully dodge. In markets, that’s when volatility explodes and our carefully calibrated short-vol trades face the full wrath of a panicked tape. Sure, we might technically...

I just checked the app, and my car is rounding the corner. 

He's picking me up for a rocket ship ride to the moon!

I should probably wait. I might be able to buy a dip. But there's a name I've wanted in the portfolio for months. They report tomorrow. Expectations aren't exactly "low" but you don't get many dips in the good names.

Here's why I'm betting on this hot brand ahead of tomorrow's earnings.

Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.

Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message reaches your limbs. That’s what nerves are for. They carry the signal. They make the body move.

Without that connection, you become rigid. Movement slows. Response times lag. Eventually, the whole system breaks down.

Markets work the same way and the bond market is the brain.

It holds the signal. It processes information about liquidity, risk, and expectations. The shape of the yield curve can tell you whether credit is expanding or contracting. Whether investors are optimistic or defensive. Whether the economy is warming up—or starting to overheat.

The bond market doesn’t just exist alongside stocks and commodities. It speaks to them. It sets the tone. It sends the signal.

If there’s enough liquidity, risk assets rally. Stocks rise and credit flows.

That’s a healthy system.

Too much liquidity?

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new trades today.
2. Adjustment to XRT position.
3. Closed IGV position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies — cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Palantir $PLTR – Director Heather Planishek grabbed $1.16 million with the stock just a few points shy of all‑time highs – insider fuel for the AI‑data leadership breakout bid.

📌 Builders FirstSource $BLDR – Director Paul Levy wrote a jaw‑dropping $55.5  million check – one of the biggest open‑market buys we’ve seen in years and a monster vote of confidence in a stock that halved off its highs a year ago. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 12, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Kratos Defense $KTOS – President & CEO Eric DeMarco bought $250,...

Monster Beverage $MNST has been quietly building pressure for years, and this quarter may have just been the catalyst it needed.

The company reported mixed results, but the stock still managed to climb 1.4%. 

They've now been rewarded for 18 of their last 26 earnings reports. 

That’s not noise...

That’s a pattern!

This isn’t some speculative upstart. 

It’s one of the most successful stocks of the 21st century. Since 2001, the price has increased by more than 200,000%. 

And now, after years of sideways action, it's knocking on the same resistance it’s failed at multiple times before.

Could it be time for the stock to moon again?

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Insulet $PODD had the best reaction score after reporting a double beat.

The company reported revenues of $570M, versus the...

Miners are leading the charge in 2025, and the data backs it up

It’s not even close...

In a year when most sectors are struggling to stay afloat, precious metals and the miners are surging higher.

We are so freaking back.

In a turn of events which would have been shocking virutally any other time in American history the administration finally agreed to a firm 90 day pause on the Chinese tariffs. "Firm" and "Pause" and "Deescalation" and, really, every word I'd normally apply to these type of announcements obviously come with a grain of a salt these days. This pause could be declared over by the time this note publishes. 

Regardless, we've got a new playing field. It's time to reassess our situation and how it impacts our stocks.

The Field Position:

The XRT consumer index is gapping higher on Monday morning and now clearly forming what I call an Inverted Batman. Silly name, real chart. The basic idea is stocks plunge, first gradually (consumer stocks started breaking at the end of January) then with a smash (the Liberation Day crash). At that point they grind a bit. The Worst Case Scenario gets priced in. Optimism, guarded and cynical though it may be, builds until, finally, the fever breaks and folks start chasing higher.

To whit:

You can call the chart whatever you'd like but the price moves line-up quite...

Short sellers are getting squeezed, and you can see it.

These investors have been caught offside, and they're being forced to liquidate their short positions.

They're suffering right now, and that's precisely when we want to come in with the Freshly Squeezed strategy.

Here's our latest Freshly Squeezed table: 

As you can see, Hims & Hers Health $HIMS, Sezzle $SEZL, and Porch Group $PRCH are at the top of the scan. 

Over the last 10 trading sessions, they've rallied 85%, 81.6%, and 74.5%, respectively.

We also have tables sorted by short interest and days-to-cover.

Now, let's talk about today's setup and why we think the short sellers are about to get their faces ripped off.

First, here's some context 👇

Sezzle $SEZL is an emerging "buy now, pay later" platform based in...

Today's number is... 2025

In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.

We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls. 

And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.

The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record. 

The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.

When...

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and let me tell you, this week stood out with a rare mix of high-conviction buys.

Let’s break it down:

The most important insider buy this week came from Organon & Co $OGN.

Both the CEO and CFO stepped in together, scooping up nearly $400K worth of stock. 

You don’t often see that kind of coordinated action from the top two execs — and when you do, it usually means they’re expecting significant upside, and soon. 

Next, we’ve got MiMedx Group $MDGX, where the CEO Joseph H. Capper bought over $1.2 million worth. 

That’s a strong show of confidence in a biotech name that’s been flying under the radar.

Hillman Solutions $HLMN also saw some bullish buying — their CFO & Treasurer reported nearly...

I’m always thinking about where the next big winners will come from.

Who will be the secular leaders of tomorrow?

What will be the next mega trend?

Who has the scale and the reach to dominate an industry?

What are the big ecosystem plays of the future?

But, I’m not only thinking about the fundamentals. It has to be confirmed by the technicals.

I love a good growth story as much as anyone, but I’m not going to fly blind with it.

One thing I know about stocks like the Magnificent Seven is they didn’t get to their size by accident.

The best stocks consistently outperform the overall market. That's what makes them the best!

So, I’ve learned to look out for this kind of thing. I never want to miss these trends.

The...

Last week was packed with earnings events.

We heard from some of the biggest names in the market - including several Magnificent 7 giants, the world’s largest financial company (Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A / $BRK.B), and plenty more.

There were some sweet earnings reactions. 

And some pretty terrible ones, too...

Here's what we talked about last week:

• Monday:
  • Amazon.com $AMZN reported a double beat, but was punished for it. This was the 4th consecutive quarter of the market not rewarding the stock for its earnings report.
  • Apple $AAPL was also punished for reporting a double beat. The stock has experienced negative earnings reactions in 6 of the last 8 quarters.
• Tuesday:
  • Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A / $BRK.B reported a double miss and fell over 5%. This was the stock's worst earnings reaction since 2011.
  • Zimmer Biomet $ZBH reported a double beat,...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

More and more risk-on areas of the market are perking up with every passing day.

We’ve watched risk-appetite steal the show overseas in recent weeks, and now we’re seeing it stateside in US markets.

Small caps have outperformed off the April lows.

Speculative growth and ARK stocks have outperformed off the April lows.

Tech has led. Discretionary has led. Growth has led. High beta has led. 

All of this leadership boils down to the same thing.

Investors are embracing risk at an increasing rate. They want more exposure to the riskiest stocks and assets around the world, not less.

We just talked about this at our live event yesterday. We’re listening to the market and getting more aggressive on the long side.