Today's number is... 5

After 5 months of consolidating, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline line has closed at an all-time high.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line represents the S&P 500’s Advance-Decline line.

The Takeaway: The Advance-Decline Line is one of the purest ways to analyze market breadth to assess overall market strength. 

It measures the number of stocks participating or not.

The concept is super simple. 

We add the number of stocks moving higher and subtract the number of stocks that are declining. Then, we add that sum to the previous day's Advance-Decline Line value.

When the Advance-Decline Line rises, it indicates broad market participation. Conversely, when it falls, this suggests that more stocks are declining than advancing, which is a sign of market weakness.

Currently, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line is at its highest level ever, which indicates that market internals are strong.

This type of strength supports the potential for a sustainable...

The stock market just closed higher for 9 straight sessions.

We’re seeing a textbook V-shaped recovery unfold, especially with major indexes and sectors reclaiming key levels and repairing the damage from last month’s selloff.

When we look under the surface, the more speculative, high-beta areas of the market are starting to wake up and look ready to catch higher.

We call that risk appetite. And that’s exactly what our custom speculative growth index was designed to track. 

After a sharp pullback, the riskiest stocks in the market are bouncing right where they should.

Former resistance has turned into support. It’s the polarity principle at its finest. 

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and let me tell you, this week stood out with a rare mix of high-conviction buys.

Let’s break it down:

The most important insider buy this week came from Tesla $TSLA.

Airbnb co-founder and Tesla board member Joe Gebbia bought 4,000 shares on April 28 at around $256 per share — dropping over $1 million into the stock.

This was Tesla’s first insider purchase in nearly five years. 

A move like this from someone on the board suggests a signal of confidence 

Remember that there are many reasons an insider would sell… to buy a house, pay for a wedding, go on vacation. But there’s only one reason they buy:

They think the stock’s going higher.

And with all the bearish sentiment surrounding...

Last week was awesome! 

We just heard from over a hundred S&P 500 components and learned about their recent performance, their management's thoughts, and much more.

There were some sweet earnings reactions. 

And some pretty terrible ones, too...

Here's what we talked about last week:

• Monday:
  • Verisign $VRSN resolved a .com bubble base on the heels of its earnings report.
  • T-Mobile US $TMUS had its worst earnings reaction ever after reporting a double beat.
• Tuesday:
  • Domino's Pizza $DPZ rallied after reporting mixed results. It's carving out a sweet base.
  • Roper Technologies $ROP got crushed again for reporting a double beat. They've been punished for 6 of their last 7 reports.
• ...

One of the things I do on Saturday mornings is catch up on the earnings stories and reactions I might have missed during the week.

And it’s actually a lot easier for me to do these days…

Over the past year, we’ve built an earnings engine complete with various internal scans and custom indicators.

We like to build the tools we need here at All Star Charts. It’s how we got our start many years ago. And it will always be a big part of our culture and success as a publisher.

So I’m proud to say we finally have everything investors need from an earnings standpoint.

And you can get it for free right now as we’ve launched a demo version of what we call the Beat Report. 

We’re tracking all the reports each quarter and identifying the names with the best earnings trends and momentum. We send a note each day detailing all the earnings-based movers and shakers. We break it all down for you and highlight the best stuff we find. 

But the way we do it is a bit non-traditional. No one else is doing this analysis in this way. 

We don’t care so...

Stocks keep going up, but investors are more scared than ever.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, more than half of individuals are bearish equities over the next 6 months. This has been the case now for 10 consecutive weeks.

This has never happened ever in the history of the survey, which dates back to the 1980s. It didn't happen during the great financial crisis, or the dot-com bubble, or even Covid.

But it's happening now. During a bull market.

Stocks are going up, but investors are scared to death.

Did you see the Barron's cover this morning?

Barron's has been polling big money managers for nearly 30 years. According to their latest poll, Money Managers are the most bearish ever:

Meanwhile, stocks keep going up.

The Technology Index was actually positive for the month of April, contrary to popular belief.

Tech was even the biggest winner!

Look at the S&P500 Technology Index bouncing off support, from former resistance at the prior cycle highs:

And overseas, the strength keeps coming.

The German DAX just closed the week at its highest levels in history.

...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.

While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.

Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.

Let’s walk through the setup...

This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.

That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.

With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!

It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.

Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.

Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

From the desk of Steve Strazza

The evidence is becoming clearer and clearer by the day…

It’s time to be overweight US tech stocks again.

But, this can mean a lot of things.

For me, Amazon and Tesla are “tech.” The big communications stocks are definitely “tech.”

There is some “tech” sprinkled into just about every sector, you just have to find it.

As a general rule, if it trades like a tech stock, it’s probably a tech stock.

Anyways, these are the stocks I’m on the hunt for these days. 

I’m buying speculative growth names like AST SpaceMobile and Rigetti Computing.

I’m buying bitcoin and crypto-related plays like MicroStrategy and Mara.

I’m buying biotech stocks like Rythm and Soleno.

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

We made our first new purchase since launching the consumer portfolio earlier this year...

This is a stock I've been keeping an eye on for a while, and I'm of the opinion that it's probably more recession proof than most people think. 

Today's new all-time highs certainly don't hurt! 

I added a new name to the Retail Round-Up portfolio last week. Spotify entered the portfolio after reporting a "disappointing" first quarter that, honestly, couldn't have made me happier. 

As discussed in the Spotify preview and earnings Report Card, I didn't care much about what Spotify reported for EPS or financial guidance. I cared about subscriber count. Specifically, premium subscribers. I don't know anything more than anyone else about how these Interesting Times work out in terms of the economy over the next 6 months but I know a certain level of Chaos as been created. Whatever happens from here, everything since April 2nd has worked to the relative benefit of the most powerful, liquid, flexible consumer names. 

That means Walmart, Costco and Amazon (we only own the last name in the portfolio) will take share from lesser players. It means companies like Gap and Victoria's Secret, with diversifiend supply...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XME.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed TLT at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

C-suite executives were active on  May Day.

📌Matador Resources  $MTDR – Chairman and CEO Joseph Wm. Foran revealed a purchase of $533,000, doubling down as crude still trades below $60.

📌 PHINIA $PHIN – President and CEO Brady Ericson reported a purchase of $397,000 worth of stock in the auto‑parts newcomer.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Merchants Bancorp  $MBIN – CEO Michael F. Petrie and COO Michael J. Dunlap filed Form 4s, teaming up for an aggregate purchase of $279,ooo, keeping the regional‑bank insider wave alive.

Microsoft $MSFT just reminded everyone what real leadership looks like.

The tech titan posted a double beat, with $3.46 in EPS on $70.07B in revenue, both topping estimates. 

That alone is impressive. 

But the price reaction? That’s what turned heads.

Shares ripped higher!

The stock had its best earnings-day gain since 2015, and added a staggering $200 billion in market cap in a single session. 

That’s larger than most S&P 500 companies' total market cap.

It wasn’t just about beating expectations. It was about reaffirming dominance in a market searching for clarity. 

Microsoft hit all the right notes between its cloud strength, AI tailwinds, and fortress balance sheet.

And the tape responded in kind...

This is what real demand for a stock looks like. No fade. No hesitation. Just buyers showing up in force.

When the biggest names in the world move like small caps, that’s a clue.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to...

Today's number is... 15.2%

The size of the lower wick for the S&P 500 in April was 15.2%.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green and red candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black bars in the bottom panel represent the size of the lower wick in percentage terms.

The Takeaway: What is a wick? 

A wick refers to the lines on a candle in a candlestick chart. A wick indicates the fluctuations of a stock's price in relation to its opening and closing prices. 

A lower wick indicates how much sellers drove the price down, followed by buyers stepping in with a significant response. Typically, when we see a long lower wick, it signals a potential transition from a bearish to a bullish environment.

It's a valuable tool for us to understand market psychology and potential trend shifts. 

In April, the S&P 500 showed a significantly large lower wick, measuring over 15.2% in size. Other instances of wicks this...

Precious metal miners have topped the rankings for a long time - and it's no surprise because it's a raging Gold bull market.

These companies trade very closely to the price of Gold, so when it's trending higher they have an immense tailwind.

But what happens if the price of Gold stops going up? The mining stocks will do the same...

Gold has hit our second long-term target, which is the second Fibonacci extension level from the entire 2010s bear market. This would be a logical place for Gold to digest its gains and for the miners to do the same.

And then on the contrary, a group that looks ready to break higher is Aerospace & Defense $ITA.

This ETF has been trading sideways since the election, but now it looks ready to break higher.

While the broader market is still stabilizing after a volatile beginning to the year, there could be noticeable rotation taking place beneath the surface, with new leaders arising.

I think Aerospace & Defense is a great example of that.

While precious metal miners might be taking a breather, and new leadership emerges in places like...