Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

Sorry for the obnoxious title. Sometimes, these things just write themselves.

You would think that a company involved in sports betting would be doing well, considering it seems I can't escape the barrage of advertising for sports betting apps I'm seeing everywhere I turn.

Apparently, there is a company in this space that can't seem to figure it out. Or at least, that's what their stock price action is saying. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLP.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

After weeks of increased volatility, bank insiders are voting with their wallets — four buys in one day across the regionals.

📌 Texas Capital $TCBI – Director Robert W. Stallings reported a purchase worth $339,000, his second big buy this month.

📌 PNC Financial $PNC – Director Martin Pfinsgraff bought 1,000 shares, equivalent to $158,220.

📌 Burke & Herbert $BHRB – Director Mark Guthrie Anderson dropped $159,000 into the Virginia lender.

📌 Banc of California $BANC – Director James A. Barker bought $131,560 worth of stock.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 29, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Chief Medical Officer Samit Hirawat filed a Form 4 revealing a purchase of 4,250 shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY.

Any insider purchase at a pharma giant trading near multi-year...

Teradyne $TER crushed expectations with another double beat this quarter.

They reported revenues of $699 million and EPS of $0.75, comfortably above Wall Street estimates.

But instead of celebrating, investors hit the sell button. 

The stock dropped over 5% intraday, continuing a painful trend: Teradyne has been punished after 8 of its last 9 earnings reports.

That’s not a fluke... It’s a pattern.

Despite consistent performance, the market keeps fading the stock. 

Whether it’s concerns over cyclicality in the semiconductor space, cautious guidance, or a lack of enthusiasm for old-school chip equipment names, the stock can’t catch a break.

This kind of reaction reminds us: earnings aren’t just about the numbers. 

They’re about the market's reaction, and nobody is buying Teradyne for its earnings reports. 

They haven't for years!

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

SBA...

It wasn't the numbers that cooked shares of Starbucks after hours last night. Not that Starbucks didn't turn in a "disappointing" (their words) quarter last night. They did. But the stock was hanging in there just fine well into last night's call. China comps were flat(!), The US was weak but not a disaster and the rest of the world comped positively. Margins were a trainwreck. EPS wasn't even close to estimates, but Starbucks pulled guidance over 6mo ago. No one owned Starbucks for last night's EPS.

What killed $SBUX (or at least sent shares from flat to down ~8%) was Starbucks shifting spending plans from machinery to labor. Under prior management, Starbucks was somewhat obsessed with rolling out Machines and Food, committing to spending $450 million on machinery starting in 2022. Say goodbye to the cold brew systems and elaborate food prep systems. Only heavy-traffic drive-thru-based stores were getting the elaborate coffee-making systems.

Niccol, who seemed confident if a little disdainful of prior initiatives he's now having to unwind, is young(er) blood but old school. He's spending on employees. Not throwing money at them but absolutely spending more on labor...

We're seeing leadership broaden across sectors, with technology starting to take a back seat. This shift comes as many of the dominant trends from the past decade begin to show signs of fatigue.

International stocks are now outpacing their U.S. counterparts.

The dollar weakened alongside equities during the most recent correction.

And value is starting to challenge growth in a meaningful way.

In the sector space, this theme continues—technology is struggling to gain relative traction against financials, classic proxies for growth and value, respectively.

We could be entering a new leadership regime — and that’s exactly the kind of shift Kenny’s VWAP setup thrives on.

In the chaos of earnings season, Kenny’s not just keeping up — he’s locking in monster trades using one simple VWAP signal. If you missed the live session, no worries — the full playbook is still available, but only until Wednesday.

...

Today's number is... -8.0%

The average global market is only in a -8.0% drawdown, while the average S&P 500 stock is in a -19.6% drawdown.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line shows the average S&P 500 stock 52-week drawdown.
• The blue line shows the average global market 52-week drawdown.

The Takeaway: I first pointed out a possible shift in leadership from the US to the rest of the world back in March. This was confirmed by the relative ratio of...

Sign up for my free note here.

For years, Momentum was basically code for US growth, big tech and high-flyers. But 2025 is rewriting that script.

This year has been all about international equities.

While US indexes have chopped sideways, many global ETFs are quietly making new 52-week highs relative to the S&P 500.

The Intl Momentum Factor ETF $IMTM tells the story of what's been unfolding in abroad and where the strength is emerging.

The ETF is breaking out to new all-time highs, driven by Financials and Industrials, which make up 34% and 18% of the...

The Mexican peso is the “blue-chip” emerging market currency. It’s long been a favorite for hedge fund carry trades—often paired with the yen—due to Mexico’s relatively high interest rates and liquid FX market.

Beyond its appeal to speculators, the peso has also served as a key risk-on currency—often leading and participating alongside a broad base of international equities and commodities.

Following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in June of 2024, the Mexican Peso and Mexican stocks took a hit, turning into laggards on the international stage. 

It was clear for those paying attention that the market did not feel optimistic about President Sheinbaum’s economic leadership. 

But the tides are shifting. With a weakening dollar, the Mexican Peso is finding its footing, and Mexican equities are starting to improve in a...

Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Michael Martin on his Trader Mindset podcast for a deep and honest conversation about what it really takes to trade in volatile markets.

One of the biggest takeaways I shared — and something I’ve been reflecting on a lot lately — is that these days, I’m more focused on finding strategies to keep my head on straight than I am on searching for new trading strategies with some theoretical edge.

Because here’s the hard truth: without a clear, steady mindset, even the best strategy in the world will eventually fail me.

Of course, Michael and I also dug into how volatility — especially as measured by the VIX — shapes the playing field for traders, particularly those of us in the options world. We explored how elevated VIX levels impact trade selection, timing, and risk management, and why high volatility environments demand a different, more nimble approach.

One of the key themes we kept circling back to was the psychological side of trading. Because let’s face it: when the market’s flying all over the place and my P&L is jumping around just as fast, my internal state can become my biggest...

US equities are officially the laggards of the world.

The S&P 500 is underperforming just about every stock market around the globe this year.

After four months of steady underperformance, a growing list of international indexes are making new 52-week highs relative to the US.

While these ratios might be stretched over the short-term, when you zoom out, they are taking the shape of primary trend reversals.

All this tells us is to expect more leadership from international stocks in the future. I think we should get used to a global market of stocks that is no longer dominated by the United States.

And this is great news. Participation broadening around the world simply means more investment opportunities for us.

So I’m all about international these days. The first watchlist and chartbook I’m looking at most mornings is our international ETF universe. 

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in USO.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

📌 The most significant insider buy today comes from Tesla $TSLA, where Airbnb $ABNB co-founder and Tesla board member Joe Gebbia stepped up with a $1 million purchase.

This marks the first insider purchase of Tesla stock in roughly five years.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 28, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Over in clean energy, Enphase Energy $ENPH got a confidence boost from the top, as President and CEO Badri Kothandaraman picked up $185,000 worth of stock, backing a potential turnaround in solar.

📌 Finally, Pzena Investment Management filed 13Gs revealing initial 5.10% stakes in both Skyworks Solutions $SWKS and Spectrum Brands $SPB.

Starbucks set to report tonight and if you aren't nervous you haven't been paying attention. 

Shares of the worlds largest coffee shop are trading at levels first hit in 2019, a depressing run of mediocrity that has included 4 CEOs, a national controversy over the use of store bathrooms and the COVID lockdown. The lockdowns were particularly notable for Starbucks because ~20% of its revenues (and much less of its earnings) are generated in the Chinese market, which was something of a career-long hobbyhorse of longtime leader Howard Schultz. 

The company pulled all guidance last fall, one of the first orders of business under CEO Brian Niccol. Suffice it to say the business outlook hasn't gotten more transparent since October.

Same store sales were likely down in the US last quarter, though likely with improved tickets but weaker traffic. FWIW analysts are looking for EPS of 50c on about $8.8b of revenue. There will be currency noise and, as just mentioned, Starbucks itself isn't giving any guidance and has no particular incentive to stretch numbers or paint a rosy international picture. Niccol arrived with a well-earned reputation and he's...

Roper Technologies $ROP is out with another double beat, but you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the stock.

The industrial tech firm topped revenue and EPS expectations again, continuing its track record of solid execution. 

Revenue hit $1.88 billion, and EPS reached $4.78, both above consensus. 

On paper, this was a textbook beat...

But the market response? Brutal.

Shares fell over 1%, extending a trend of negative earnings reactions. The stock has been punished after 6 of its last 7 earnings reports.

At this point, it’s not about the numbers—it’s about expectations. 

Investors seem to be pricing in perfection, and anything less—even a clean beat—is getting sold. 

Whether it’s valuation concerns, slowing organic growth, or just poor sentiment, the message is clear: Wall Street isn’t buying the story, no matter how consistent it looks.

This is textbook earnings punishment.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to...

Spotify is down 8% pre-market on missing the EPS estimate for Q4. The subscription numbers were good with monthly usage and premium subscriber numbers coming in better than expected. The guidance for FY subs was light, which seems more on the side of prudent than a red flag.

As I wrote about ahead of earnings, $SPOT had become a crowded long as shares tacked on 20% and $100 heading into the earnings release.

There are companies you want to own for a steady earnings stream. Spotify isn't one of them. 

SPOT into the quarter with too many people needing a huge beat. I was hoping for something more like this. 

Here's how I'm planning to trade it for the Macke Consumer portfolio.