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Bull Market Two-Year Anniversary

June 4, 2024

Next week marks the 2-year anniversary of this Bull Market for stocks.

As we've mentioned many times, the S&P500 didn't bottom out until October of 2022. But it was already a bull market at that point.

The bottom for the prior bear market was in June of 2022. That's when the majority of stocks bottomed.

By the time the S&P500 hit its final low in October, there weren't many stocks at all left going down. Most of them had already been making higher lows and higher highs.

Coming into this year, ...

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The Minor Leaguers (06-03-2024)

June 3, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...

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Gold Rush: Updated Trade Levels

June 3, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

This week, I’m cutting straight to our trade ideas.

I’ve made a table of more than 30 setups, the majority of them trending toward our targets.

And I’ll also update a few trade ideas with new entry levels and additional upside objectives.

Let’s dive in!

[Options] The Other Side of the Coin

June 3, 2024

[Note: We entered this trade on June 4th following the entry trigger. Details below]

On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza brought the heat.

It appears Bitcoin is about to start another leg higher. It's showing all the signs: A tightening consolidation on the verge of an upside resolution. And with the 100,000 level on the watch list of every professional and amateur market speculator, it's hard to believe that the next bullish breakout does not include a run to and through this highly watched level.

In the meantime, we equities options traders still have limited vehicle choices available to us to participate in this move. We've long used Microstrategy $MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy. But our feeling is that if Bitcoin makes the move everyone is waiting for, we will see the entire crypto space go with it, and that will be great news for a stock like Coinbase $COIN.

Here's where the charts of Bitcoin and $COIN stand now:

There Will Be Winners

June 3, 2024

When you look at Consumer Discretionary stocks as a group, you think "Wow this is the worst sector on the planet".

How can there be any winners coming out of here?

But there are. And there always will be.

First, look at the sector itself relative to the S&P500 going out last month at the lowest levels in over 10 years.

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Freshly Squeezed (5/28/2024)

June 1, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Despite some messy action from the broader market in recent months, risk appetite remains elevated.

How do we know?

The stocks that investors are betting against the most are making big moves... to the upside.

And we know just what to do in these environments.

We look to our freshly squeezed universe and find the most heavily shorted stocks. We wait for momentum to come into these names, and we ride them higher while the shorts get squeezed.

We got new short data recently, so let's talk about how we're playing it.

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with the most aggressive short positions. When a stock is shorted, it means incremental buyers are waiting in the wings to close out their bearish bets.

We love this, as new buyers are the one true catalyst for higher prices.

When shorts are proven wrong, they become buyers of the stock. In many cases, this happens as momentum flows into these names and fuels massive short-covering rallies.

For this reason, we pair short-interest data with short-term momentum overlays, as...

The market is rigged

June 1, 2024

How many times do these people tell you that the market is rigged?

Well, if you actually believe that then why wouldn't you just bet on the companies that profit most from the rigging?

I don't see the problem.

If you can't beat them, join them!

Here is the NYSE Broker Dealers Index making new all-time highs.

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The Hall of Famers (05-31-2024)

June 1, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to new 52-week highs.

This leaves us...

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Catch These Uranium Stocks Before They Split! 

May 31, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metal and mining stocks are hanging tough.

Sure, miners aren’t flashing an overwhelming number of new highs, but they’re also not registering an alarming number of new lows.

That’s impressive, especially considering Copper’s epic false start.

While many precious and base metal stocks consolidate, let’s review the next group of mining names before they rip…

Check out the Junior Uranium Miners ETF $URNJ versus the Uranium Miners ETF $URNM:

Despite the significant overlap between these two ETFs, I view a breakout in the URNJ-to-URNM ratio as a clear risk-on signal (much like the relative strength displayed by junior gold miners). 

The top four URNJ holdings – accounting for approximately 60% of the ETF – also belong to URNM. In comparison, those same four stocks combine for just 28% of URNM.

URNM also includes the $24B uranium bellwether...

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The Bond Market Knives Come Out

May 30, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No matter how you slice it, bonds are stuck in a downtrend.

Perhaps bonds are carving out a tradeable low. If so, we have our levels to trade against. But price is falling away from our entry orders, heading in the opposite direction.    

You just can’t buy long-dated U.S. Treasuries right now…

Check out the U.S. T-Bond ETF $TLT:

TLT is trading beneath a downward-sloping long-term (forty-week) moving average and a yearlong downtrend line. Long-term averages and trendlines epitomize the Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) approach to trend analysis because they work.

We can also add a well-defined bearish momentum regime on the 14-week RSI to our bearish data point list. The lackadaisical bid for bonds reminds us that it’s far easier for an asset to fall on weak demand than to rise on dwindling supply. 

During...